Victoria Mile Final Prediction: Why Embroidery is Unstoppable

Win Return Rate: 158.0%

Phili ◎ Gillies Ball (10th fav, 24.5x) 🥇

Fukushima Himba ◎ Kogane no Sora (9th fav, 29.2x) 🥇

Nakayama Kim ◎ Calamatianos (7th fav, 14.8x) 🥇

Kokura Dai ◎ Tagano Dude (4th fav, 7.4x) 🥇

Unico ◎ Silver Ratio (2nd fav, 2.8x) 🥇

Flo ◎ Laughter Lines (1st fav, 2.2x) 🥇

Tenno Sho (Spring) ◎ Croix du Nord (1st fav, 1.8x) 🥇

Hanshin Himba ◎ Embroidery (1st fav, 2.8x) 🥇

Shinzan ◎ Sound Move (4th fav, 7.2x) 🥈

Daiya ◎ Feian Kranz (3rd fav, 7.8x) 🥈

Mainichi Hai ◎ Altraums (1st fav, 2.4x) 🥈

Nikkei Sho ◎ Mikuni Inspire (2nd fav, 4.0x) 🥈

NZT ◎ Rodeo Drive (1st fav, 1.7x) 🥈

Nikkei Shin ◎ Libyan Glass (9th fav, 21.2x) 🥉

Proky ◎ Le Cheval d'Or (8th fav, 12.7x) 🥉

Negishi S ◎ Danon Figo (4th fav, 7.2x) 🥉

Kisara ◎ Laughter Lines (4th fav, 7.0x) 🥉

Yayoi Sho ◎ Admire Quads (1st fav, 2.2x) 🥉

Keisei Hai ◎ Solanelman (1st fav, 3.6x) 🥉

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【#VictoriaMile】Final Prediction

◎ ⑫ Embroidery (Projected 1st favorite)

● Reasons for Recommendation

① "Monster-class" performance since age 3

② Intense sustainability is best suited for the Tokyo Mile

③ Unbeatable in female-only mile races

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Heading toward unifying the domestic mile division, this is just a passing point for Embroidery.

I, Mingo, rarely place a ◎ bet on the 1st favorite in Graded or G1 races, but I am trusting Embroidery for the second consecutive race following the Hanshin Himba Stakes because she is that much of a talent.

The evidence lies in the Queen Cup (6 races ago) and the Oka Sho (5 races ago).

First, looking back at the Queen Cup.

Last year's Queen Cup had a super high pace (first 3F 34.2s, 4F 45.7s).

Naturally, the development favored closers.

However, Embroidery followed in 2nd place, took the lead early at the 4th corner, and left the field 0.4s behind for a crushing victory.

This was a performance even stronger than the margin suggests.

Furthermore, the winning time of 1:32.2 was a Queen Cup record.

At the age of 3 in February, she had already surpassed the winning time of the Tokyo Shimbun Hai (G3 for older horses) held a week prior.

That intuition became a conviction during the Oka Sho. Considering it was held on a heavy track, the winning time of 1:33.1 and the last 3F of 11.7-11.4-11.4 are astounding. This was despite a late start and being blocked at the 3rd and 4th corners. For Embroidery, whose weapon is speed sustainability and who clearly prefers fast tracks, a heavy track is a disadvantage. Considering that, her Oka Sho performance is historic.

The Oaks was too long and can be ignored. The Shuka Sho at a shorter distance was a natural victory. In the Hanshin Himba Stakes, despite a slow pace not being her best fit, she won easily with a race record. In female-only mile races, she is simply in a different class.

Embroidery's greatest strength is speed sustainability. Even as a front-runner, she has ranked in the top 2 for the final 1F in all her 1600m races. She can maintain high speed over a long duration (4F-5F). While Hanshin Himba winners haven't fared well in the Victoria Mile recently due to the difference in required aptitudes, Embroidery's profile fits the Victoria Mile's need for sustained speed perfectly. I believe she can compete even against the strongest males like Jantar Mantar and Croix du Nord.

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Since Embroidery will likely push the pace early, I'll choose closers for the other spots.

○ ⑯ Nishino Tiamo

After throat surgery, she has won four in a row. Her performance in the Kaiji Stakes and Fukushima Kinen (G3) proved she has G1-level ability. Her 5th place in the Nakayama Himba Stakes was actually a strong performance given the track bias favored the inside/front, and she was stuck on the outside.

▲ ⑭ Jocelyn

Two reasons: she hasn't shown her limit yet, and the switch to Tokyo is perfect. Her win in the Carnation Cup was dominant. In the Shuka Sho, she suffered a fatal disadvantage by being blocked, yet still finished 4th. Her large stride makes her better suited for the wide Tokyo track than small tracks.

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Actual betting tickets will be revealed at 14:30 on race day. Please follow and wait.

● Victoria Mile Final Conclusion

◎ ⑫ Embroidery

○ ⑯ Nishino Tiamo

▲ ⑭ Jocelyn

*☆ and △ will be decided based on race-day odds.