If you do nothing, the day will come when you have nowhere to live.
It's not an exaggeration. The numbers say so.
I've been in this business for 20 years. I'll write honestly about what's happening in the current market.
Chapter 1: Those who can't buy are flowing into the rental market
Prices for condominiums continue to rise. For the first time, over 20% of detached houses in Tokyo's 23 wards exceeded 100 million yen. Sales prices have hit record highs for seven consecutive months.
To those who think, "Then I'll just buy a used one":
The contract price per square meter for used condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area has risen for 65 consecutive months. Used properties are also expensive. Because people can't buy new, they flow to used ones. Demand for used properties rises. Used prices go up. There is no escape.
People who can't buy flow into rentals.
In a survey of 287 industry professionals, "soaring condominium prices" was cited as the top factor positively impacting the rental market. The group that can't afford new or used properties is driving up rental demand.
What happens when demand increases? Rents go up.
Chapter 2: Why are rents rising despite a shrinking population?
Some might think, "If the population is shrinking, vacancies should increase." There are reasons why that's not happening.
The number of households is increasing. Even if the population is shrinking, the number of households is growing. Single-person households, divorces, and the aging population living alone are progressing. We've entered an era where one person uses one room. Even if the population decreases, if the number of households increases, demand does not drop.
Concentration in cities continues. Rural populations are shrinking, but the concentration in Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya continues. Demand in urban areas increases while vacant houses in rural areas grow. A polarization of vacancy rates is occurring.
Foreign residents are surging. Due to the expansion of the technical intern program, international students, and the relaxation of work visas, foreign residents are increasing. They also generate rental demand.
Supply is being restricted. Due to soaring construction costs, it's becoming harder to build new rental properties. If supply decreases while demand is maintained, vacancy rates drop.
Population decline is a "general story." It's not about the urban areas where you are trying to live.
Chapter 3: Vacancy rates are falling. An era is coming where you can't rent even if you want to.
Vacancy rates in Osaka City's Kita and Chuo wards are in the 4% range. Osaka City has surpassed Tokyo's 23 wards in rent growth rate, with listed rents hitting record highs.
Both Tokyo and Osaka are moving in the same direction.
What does a low vacancy rate mean? It means there are fewer properties to choose from even if you want to rent. We are approaching a state where you cannot rent unless you compromise on conditions.
If supply does not increase, an era will come where you cannot live in your desired location at your desired price.
Chapter 4: Rent increases are the industry standard
"Raising rents and common area fees" was the most common response from both developers and asset management companies in an industry survey.
It's not the decision of individual landlords. It's an industry-wide trend.
Furthermore, 71.1% of businesses answered that the acquisition price of rental apartments and land "will rise." This is a significant increase from 55.8% in the previous survey. Acquisition costs are always passed on to rent.
There is no escape.
Chapter 5: The reality of being unable to rent in old age
You can rent while you're young. The problem is what comes after.
An increasing number of landlords are refusing elderly tenants. There are cases where you fail the screening the moment your income becomes pension-only. You are rejected due to the risk of solitary death. You are rejected because you can't join a guarantee company.
There are numbers. 42.8% of people over 65 who looked for rental housing said they "struggled." About 1 in 3 (30.4%) have experience being refused entry because of their age. In the last year, it's 36.7%—more than 1 in 3 are being rejected.
Even if you have sufficient income or savings, there are many cases where you are rejected. It's not a matter of money; it's a matter of age.
While rents continue to rise, income decreases. Screenings become stricter. The options for where you can live narrow down.
You can rent now. But the reality is that 1 in 3 people over 65 are rejected.
Chapter 6: If we do nothing, Japan will become like this
In 5 years: Urban rents will be 15-20% higher than now. New construction starts will continue to decrease, and supply shortages will worsen. Used prices will remain high. You can't buy new or used. Rentals are also expensive. There will be no escape.
In 10 years: The "Dankai Junior" generation approaches 65. Single elderly households surge. Cities will overflow with elderly people who want to rent but can't. Housing refugees will surface as a social problem.
In 20-30 years: Rural areas will be full of vacant houses. Urban areas will have no place to live. Polarization will reach its limit. Elderly people without homes will flood into public housing and facilities. Those facilities will also be in short supply.
There is a fundamental problem. The number of construction workers is decreasing due to the declining birthrate. Houses can no longer be built. Supply won't increase. Demand will continue to concentrate in urban areas. Prices will keep rising.
This is not a prediction; it's an extension of what is happening now.
Chapter 7: So, what should you do now?
There is no single answer. Everyone's situation is different.
To those choosing to rent: Create a financial plan that incorporates rent increases. Don't assume your current rent will be the same in 10 years. Think now about how to secure a place to live in your old age. It's too late to think about it after you turn 65.
To those thinking of buying: If you buy, think about the exit strategy. First, consider whether you can sell or rent it out in 10 years. Always check the location, management status, and repair reserve fund status. Results come not when you buy, but when you sell.
Common to both: If you find a good property, buy it without hesitation. If you find a good rental, rent it without hesitation. While you're hesitating, someone else will decide.
Information is power. The biggest risk is being swept away without knowing.
Doing nothing is the most dangerous choice right now.
Chapter 8: Choosing to rent is correct. But doing nothing is not.
Decide whether to rent or buy based on your personality and situation. I'm not trying to deny the choice of renting.
However, you should know what is happening in the current market.
If you choose to rent, make a financial plan that accounts for price increases. Think now about securing a place to live in your old age.
If you consider buying, move with an exit strategy in mind. Results come not when you buy, but when you sell.
Doing nothing is the biggest risk.
If you find a good property, buy it without hesitation. Similarly, if you find a good rental, rent it without hesitation. While you're hesitating, someone else will decide.
Source: Mitsubishi Estate Real Estate Services "Survey on the Rental Apartment Market (Q4 2025)" / Japan Rental Housing Management Association (July 2025 Survey) / LIFULL HOME'S Market Report (November 2025)
Insights from 20 years of real estate industry experience.
