Justin Sun has dominated over twenty hot search topics in the last three days, all centered on emotional drama.
However, whether it's the retail investors or the veterans, no one seems to have hit the mark. When things are this unusual, there must be a catch. This reporter spent two days auditing HTX's books from scratch.
Through various investigations, it can be basically confirmed that Justin Sun's recent long-form essay is objectively a smoke screen. Using the attention surrounding actress Jing Tian, he is fighting a defensive war for liquidity.
Here is the organized relevant information:
- According to HTX's own Proof of Reserves, revalued at late August prices, customer liabilities for major coins are approximately $6.9 billion; on-chain assets that can be seen are $4.2.5 billion, a gap of $2.6 billion.
- This $4.25 billion has dropped from $7.4 billion a year ago, a 43% decrease. Price fluctuations only explain one-third of this; the remaining tens of billions of RMB represent actual capital outflow.
- The money Justin Sun can immediately mobilize on-chain is between $1.2 to $1.5 billion. The 60 billion TRX he holds has a nominal value of $20 billion, but it cannot be moved. I will explain why below.
- A triple threat of sanctions: The UK on May 26, the EU on July 23, and Binance cutting off transfer channels on August 23 have created a de facto bank run.
- Approximately 4 billion WLFI tokens are completely frozen, with dual lawsuits ongoing and not a single token unlocked to date.
- On August 27, he sued Jing Tian to recover 30 million RMB in dowry and released a 6,000-word essay titled "My Girlfriend Jing Tian" that night, causing a massive stir.
Many people are just following the gossip, arguing about why Justin Sun is so low-class to make his private life public. But if you summarize the information, doesn't it feel familiar?
This strategy was fully played out in China earlier this year by Yu Hao of Dreame. It was later exposed by a famous article as a bubble intended to secure local government funding.
Don't be too quick to just call him low-class.
Being low-class is a performance, and performance has a cost. When someone is willing to burn their private life as fuel—and even adds a disclaimer that it's "purely fictional" at the end—it means what they are trying to cover up could be fatal!
01 / 6.9 Billion vs. 4.25 Billion
HTX's Proof of Reserves from April to June, revalued at late August prices:
BTC: 21,314 coins, at $80k, $1.7 billion. ETH: 117,175 coins, at $2500, $290 million. TRX: 9.19 billion coins, at $0.34, $3.12 billion. USDT: 1.765 billion coins, $1.77 billion.
Total: $6.9 billion. On-chain balances detectable by DeFiLlama: $4.25 billion.
A gap of $2.6 billion.
Some might ask, what if DeFiLlama's wallet list is outdated and missed something? Good question. This reporter thought so too, so I calculated from both directions. While old wallet lists and August address rotations might undercount assets, the liabilities for long-tail tokens weren't counted at all, and assets include "paper" like stUSDT. Balancing both sides, the $2.6 billion gap remains consistent, ranging between $1.5 to $3.5 billion.
What's truly interesting is the historical comparison. Adam Cochran estimated the stUSDT misappropriation gap at $2.4 billion in 2023. Three years later, the magnitude hasn't changed.
The 43% annual drop curve indicates a chronic bank run, not a sudden collapse. The drop of $650 million between June and July perfectly aligns with the cascading sanctions.
02 / Where are the 60 Billion TRX?
Justin Sun's net worth is $8.5 billion; Forbes ranked him ahead of the Wang Jianlin family in early August, and he even posted a response. How was this calculated? The bulk is 60 billion TRX, nominally worth $20 billion.
So, fans have a simple logic: if there's a $2.6 billion gap, just sell TRX to cover it.
He can't sell.
If you run the numbers, you'll understand. Of HTX's $6.9 billion in liabilities, TRX accounts for $3.12 billion—nearly half. The price of TRX is the foundation of this balance sheet. If he dumps TRX, the first thing to collapse is the $3.12 billion coverage in his PoR; the second is his remaining $8 billion+ paper net worth; the third is every project in the ecosystem using TRX as collateral. The act of filling the hole would only make the hole bigger.
It's a classic reflexivity deadlock: his largest sum of money exists to prop up valuation, not to be spent. The $8.5 billion you see on Forbes has zero correlation with whether he can fulfill a $1.77 billion USDT withdrawal tomorrow.
How much liquid cash does he actually have? On-chain identifiable liquid assets are $1.2 to $1.5 billion, or even less.
He can't fill the gap.
03 / Offending the West, Sanctions Looming
On May 26, the UK updated its Russian sanctions list, including Huobi Global S.A., citing involvement in over $1.5 billion of Russia-related fund flows.
On July 23, the EU's 21st round of sanctions against Russia included HTX, banning domestic users from trading starting August 23.
On August 23, Binance cut off transfer channels for 16 institutions simultaneously; HTX was the largest among them.
The UK defined the nature, the EU expanded the scope, and Binance choked the pipeline.
The first two affected legal status; Binance affected the capital pipeline. Large users and market makers need to move money between exchanges, and Binance is the largest node. Once the node is closed, money only goes out, not in. The steepest part of the DeFiLlama -43% curve in June and July came from this.
HTX claimed WLFI was unilaterally frozen without clear legal basis, then urgently suspended WLFI and USD1 trading, converting users' USD1 to USDT at 1:1.
A kind interpretation of this 1:1 swap is user protection; a professional interpretation is that he took the redemption responsibility of a frozen asset from WLFI onto himself.
04 / $45 Million Down the Drain
On November 25, 2024, a wallet marked as HTX by Etherscan bought $30 million worth of WLFI (2 billion tokens) at 1.5 cents. In January 2025, another $15 million (1 billion tokens) was added, plus 1 billion advisor tokens. Total: ~4 billion tokens for $45 million cash. On September 1, 2025, WLFI launched, hitting a high of $0.331. That same day, HTX launched a 20% APY uncapped WLFI flexible savings product. On September 4, a Sun-related address moved $9 million in WLFI, with 60 million tokens flowing to a Binance deposit wallet, accounting for 52.6% of HTX's holdings at the time. That day, WLFI blacklisted Sun's address, then valued at $107 million. On April 21, 2026, Sun sued WLFI in the Northern District of California for fraud and embezzlement, seeking $320 million. On May 4, WLFI countersued for defamation, alleging Sun shorted WLFI and used HTX to misappropriate user tokens for cash.
What is the status of those 4 billion tokens now? Zero unlocked, no settlement, current price around $0.058—down 70-80% from launch.
$45 million in cold hard cash went in, and all he got back was a freeze notice and two lawsuits.
To be fair to Sun, the SEC charges against him were dropped "with prejudice" in March, a real victory. His lawsuit claims WLFI threatened to force-burn his tokens; if proven, that's a different story.
But the August 20 event is a double-edged sword. The arbitration motion was denied, the case moved to open court, and the allegation of misappropriating HTX user tokens will now go through public discovery.
Regardless of the verdict, the discovery process itself is a starting gun for a bank run.
05 / 20% APY: From Deposit Magnet to Contagion Pipe
Justin Sun's exposure has always served one function: an acquisition funnel. Personal branding for traffic, traffic for HTX deposits, deposits for a larger asset pool, and the asset pool for the next round of exposure. His 2019 Buffett lunch was rated a 20x ROI marketing move. As his friend Du Jun once said, Sun never gives up any means to market himself.
After a year of Trump-related marketing, HTX user USDT deposits grew from $700 million to $1.77 billion, a 150% increase. Marketing actually brought in deposits.
The backlash began in 2026.
Exposure now brings audits, not deposits. The Trump association turned from an acquisition asset into a frozen liability. First he was blacklisted personally, then on June 5, HTX's on-chain addresses were blacklisted. The 20% APY savings users bought were frozen along with the WLFI inventory. The pipe used to suck in WLFI with 20% APY sent the freeze back the same way.
The founder is the exchange. Personal scandals translate directly into withdrawal behavior. The 43% annual drop is the reading.
The marketing machine is now forced to defend solvency narratives. Suing Bloomberg, complaining about asset undercounts, and writing 6,000-word self-defenses. The same team that used to attract deposits is now entirely focused on explaining that he still has money.
Attention is the lever of trust. A bull market amplifies deposits; a crisis amplifies a bank run. And what Sun fears most this year is a liquidity run!
06 / The Crypto Version of Dreame
If you don't understand Justin Sun, look at Dreame from the first half of this year. It's the exact same mechanism, except one sucks in user deposits and the other sucks in local government industrial funds.
Around 2025, Dreame announced a "borderless ecosystem," entering appliances, phones, drones, chips, and EVs, expanding to over 200 independent units. Founder Yu Hao became a massive traffic generator, posting over 200 videos in three days in May 2026—averaging one every 13 minutes.
One every 13 minutes.
Why would a founder of a multi-billion dollar company act like a daily vlogger? It's certainly not for the fans' love.
On May 12, an article titled "The Collapsing Old Man" exposed the mechanism: many of Dreame's 200 units were external shell companies holding random businesses; the real money came from local government funds, not VCs. The goal was to convince governments in Jiaxing, Yibin, and other cities. We all saw what happened next: Yu Hao was banned from social media on June 15; local governments began auditing their cooperation with Dreame; on June 18, Dreame announced a "strategic adjustment," cutting 200 units down to four and laying off 12% of staff. Heavy asset projects like phones and cars were downgraded to research institutes.
The founder stopped jumping around.
Compare them:
Extreme personal exposure as a financing tool: Dreame had 200 videos in three days; Justin Sun hasn't left the trending list in seven years. The recipient of the exposure: Dreame wanted government funds; Sun wants HTX user deposits. Using complex structures to hide the truth: Dreame had 200 external units; HTX has Proof of Reserves that report ratios but not details.
Dreame could be cut. Their core business was real—No. 1 in global vacuum sales in Q1 2026. Cutting 200 units down to 4 only cut the side businesses; the core remained. Government money is equity investment; it doesn't demand immediate redemption.
What can Justin Sun cut?
His core business is the balance sheet itself. If he cuts the TRX ecosystem, he destroys his $3.12 billion reserve coverage. If he cuts HTX, he triggers an immediate bank run. The USDT on HTX's books isn't equity; it's a liability that depositors can withdraw at any moment.
Government funds can wait; retail investors won't.
Yu Hao was silent for 18 days, and the company survived. If Justin Sun is silent for 18 days, the depositors will be lining up.
He must keep speaking, must keep creating topics, must keep everyone thinking he's still doing great. Exposure is no longer a choice; it's a tourniquet. If it's loose, he bleeds; if it's too tight for too long, the limb dies.
07 / The Jing Tian Smoke Screen
On August 27, Justin Sun's lawyer confirmed the lawsuit against Jing Tian and her parents to return 30 million RMB in dowry. That night, Sun posted the 6,000-word "My Girlfriend Jing Tian" on X, with a disclaimer at the end, only to admit the next day that most of it was true. The essay even mentioned a $50 million surrogacy security fund.
Now, plug this into the timeline, and you'll see why he did it:
August 6-9: Forbes reports $8.5 billion net worth, surpassing Wang Jianlin.
August 20: Court denies arbitration; WLFI case goes to public trial.
August 23: Binance cuts off HTX channels.
August 27: During the Bitcoin Asia conference, the Jing Tian bombshell drops.
See the pattern?
Sun has been manipulating the media to hide his liquidity crisis. A series of negative news pushed him into a corner, so he threw the Jing Tian bomb to divert attention.
It worked: public attention shifted from HTX sanctions and liquidity crises to the love story between Sun and Jing Tian!
08 / Justin Sun's Fatal Gamble
Sun thinks this "deception" was played out brilliantly.
Did it work?
It worked for three days.
Trending topics have an expiration date; a $2.6 billion hole does not. Once the Jing Tian bomb finishes exploding and the crowd disperses, the debt remains.
Many think Justin Sun is gambling with money. No, he's gambling with time.
He doesn't lack the ability to tell stories; he lacks a period where no one asks him for money. If he can hold out until the WLFI verdict or until the next bull market pushes TRX up, the $2.6 billion will be covered automatically, and the game is won.
But time is no longer under his control.
He used to be able to buy time. $4 million for a lunch with Buffett bought three years of credit; riding Musk and Trump, and $190 million into WLFI, bought a 150% increase in HTX deposits. This deal works as long as the seller of time takes the money.
Now, sitting across from him are the UK Treasury, the European Council, the California Northern District Court, and Tether's compliance department.
These four don't take money.
Sanctions are already in effect, large users are only leaving, and the balance sheet curve is dropping daily, regardless of trending topics or essays. The court starts public discovery on August 20, and the misappropriation charge will be scrutinized in front of everyone. Most fatally, the $1.77 billion in USDT on HTX's books is a lifeline whose switch is held by Tether, not Sun. Tether won't move today because TRON carries the main circulation of USDT, and hitting HTX would hurt themselves. But EU compliance pressure is increasing daily. Sun can see the line tightening, but he can't touch it.
So now, he only has one move: stall.
Stalling comes with interest. The tens of billions that flowed out this year are the first installment. Every day he stalls, the books bleed more, and the money to stop the bleeding doesn't increase.
Justin Sun's greatest talent has always been turning other people's attention into his own money. This time he got the attention—over twenty hot searches—and the whole internet is talking about his love story.
Unfortunately, this attention game is becoming less and less effective!
Justin Sun's luck might finally be running out!
