When the digits of your unrealized losses increase in your brokerage app, just looking at the icon makes your stomach feel heavy, doesn't it?
When your child asks you to take them somewhere over the weekend, have you decided what to say?
You haven't, have you?
I had a time when I hadn't decided either.
So first, let me just put the conclusion here.
Rest assured. Kioxia will have another big market rally.
However, there is a condition.
Those who don't meet that condition will truly see hell for the next six months.
Can you explain to someone why memory stocks are being sold off this much?
If you can't, I want you to first get the details of Kioxia as a company into your head with this video before reading further.
Let me say upfront, I have been writing negative things about this stock for a long time.
I wrote many times that "it will still go down."
I haven't changed that short-term view even by a millimeter today.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2074399826935156883
But the long-term story is completely different.
Today, I will write about that by separating the time horizons.
■ 1. Still in the Red Today. Even So, I Say "Rest Assured"
Today's market was brutal.
(I'll write about Lasertec's relationship with Kioxia in detail later, so just take a look for now.)
・The Nikkei Average was 65,039.16 yen at the morning close (down 644.10 yen / -0.98%). The drop temporarily exceeded 1,000 yen.
・As of 11:02 AM, Kioxia was at 45,750 yen (down 2,990 yen / -6.13%).
・At the same time, Lasertec was at 37,480 yen (down 5,850 yen / -13.50%).
These are the morning figures. From here are today's closing prices.
・Kioxia closed at 47,730 yen (down 1,010 yen / -2.07%).
・Lasertec closed at 37,460 yen (down 5,870 yen / -13.55%).
Kioxia was beaten down to 44,170 yen during the day.
It was bought back toward the close, ending down 2%.
It closed 8% higher than its intraday low.
This means there are people properly picking it up at the bottom.
However, just because it recovered for one day doesn't mean the margin buying sitting on top has disappeared.
I'll write about that later.
Let's list Kioxia's numbers.
・Year-to-date low: 10,945 yen (Jan 6)
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・Year-to-date high: 112,700 yen (June 22) = 10.3x in half a year
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・From 54,300 yen on August 5 to today's close of 47,730 yen: -12.1%
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・From the year-to-date high: -57.6%. Looking at the intraday low of 44,170 yen: -60.8%
A stock that went up 10x in half a year has been shaved by nearly 60% from its high.
Seeing this, many people are writing that it's "finished" or "the second Metaplanet."
They are wrong.
They are just mixing up the short term and the long term.
Let me state my position clearly.
・Short term (next 6 months) = Hell will continue. Especially those who bought high on margin won't be saved.
・Long term (5-10 years) = Another big rally will come. Kioxia is not a finished company at all.
These two are not contradictory.
If they sound contradictory, you are just reading with mixed time horizons.
By the way, what I want to reduce with this article is not the unrealized loss itself.
It's the father who suddenly becomes quiet at the dinner table because of unrealized losses.
That's what I care about.
■ 2. Why Is It Sold Despite Explosive Profits? Expectations Just Ran Too Far Ahead of Stock Prices
Today's most symbolic case was Lasertec.
The earnings report (Kabutan) released after yesterday's close was as follows:
・Company forecast for the fiscal year ending June 2027: Sales 290 billion yen (+25.8%) / Operating Profit 125 billion yen (+18.8%) / Net Profit 90 billion yen (+16.2%)
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・Dividend increased from 329 yen to 351 yen, a 22 yen increase
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・Outlook for record-high profits for the first time in two periods
They issued a forecast for record profits and even announced a dividend increase.
According to the textbook, there are only reasons for it to go up.
The result was a 13.55% drop at today's close.
Why does this happen?
Because market expectations were even higher than those record profits.
・Market consensus was around 138 billion yen in ordinary profit and 96.8 billion yen in net profit.
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・Company forecast was 125 billion yen in ordinary profit and 90 billion yen in net profit.
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・Orders were also raised from 237.5 billion yen in the previous period to a range of 300-400 billion yen for this period.
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・But prior market expectations were around 400 billion yen.
The numbers are growing.
But they didn't reach expectations.
Just for that, the stock gets beaten down.
The same thing is happening around Kioxia.
SanDisk.
Kioxia's partner, co-developing NAND (storage memory that doesn't erase when power is off).
The earnings released on August 6 were like this:
・Sales up 372% year-on-year
・GAAP gross margin 84.6%
・Net profit 6.903 billion dollars
Monster numbers.
Even so, it was sold.
There are three reasons:
1. The stock price had risen over 5x since the beginning of the year, and record-breaking good results were already priced in.
2. The sales outlook for the next quarter only slightly exceeded the market consensus median by 0.8%.
3. About two-thirds of recent sales growth was due to "price increases," and doubts arose as to whether the 84.6% gross margin would continue.
Following this, on August 6, Kioxia was sold down to 48,300 yen, a temporary drop of 11.05%.
It closed at 48,740 yen, down 10.2% from the previous day.
And Kioxia's own earnings (announced July 31, Nikkei) followed the exact same pattern.
・Net profit for April-June was 842.1 billion yen. 46 times higher than the same period last year.
・Sales for data centers were 1.1747 trillion yen, over 5 times higher than the same period last year.
・Net profit outlook for July-September is 1.27 trillion yen. 31 times higher than the same period last year.
・Share buyback: up to 800 billion yen / 30 million shares.
・Stock split: 1 share into 3 shares (effective October 1).
・Selling price rose 70% in the previous quarter. The company sees supply tightness continuing into 2027.
Net profit 46 times higher.
Even so, it didn't reach the market forecast of 968.7 billion yen, and the July-September outlook didn't reach the market forecast of 1.3431 trillion yen.
Explosive profits were made.
Expectations were not met.
That's why it was sold.
Stock prices and business performance always diverge.
Until June, the divergence was "upward."
The stock price was running ahead, pricing in the far, far future of business performance.
Now we are in the middle of filling that gap.
The stock price is returning to where the business performance actually is.
And this divergence will surely happen in the opposite direction someday.
A time will come when business performance starts to recover, but the stock price remains downward.
That is the time to buy.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2083099445923918045
Here, let me write one thing honestly about the numbers.
Kioxia's forward PER (how many times the stock price is relative to one year's profit) cannot be calculated right now.
Because the company hasn't released a full-year forecast.
Adding the first-half outlook gives 2.1121 trillion yen.
Simply annualizing it makes the PER look like it's in the 6x range.
But reading this as "undervalued" is truly dangerous.
Cyclical stocks look like they have the lowest forward PER in the year when profits are most inflated.
This is the "Peak Profit Trap."
A low forward PER is not a sign of being undervalued, but evidence that the market sees "this profit won't continue."
The PBR (how many times the company's net assets the stock is priced at) is over 10x based on actual results.
However, this is based on equity at the end of the previous period, and 842.1 billion yen was accumulated in April-June alone, so the reality is a bit lower.
You will be easily deceived by numbers unless you look at them with these annotations.
By the way, the procedure for pulling and verifying the data I used in this article yourself is summarized in a back-report I'm giving away for free on my official LINE.
I'll write how to receive it at the end of the article, so make sure to read until the end.
■ 3. Even So, a Big Rally Will Come. However, Those Currently Holding on Margin Won't Be Saved
First, the most important data.
The "Weekly Margin Trading Balance by Issue" released by the Japan Exchange Group.
Tracking Kioxia's margin buying balance with this, it looks like this:
・Applications for July 17: Buying balance 13,887,900 shares / Selling balance 377,900 shares / Margin ratio 36.75x
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・Applications for July 24: Buying balance 11,385,700 shares (down 2,502,200 from previous week) / Selling balance 542,800 shares / Margin ratio 20.98x
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・Applications for July 31: Buying balance 12,321,600 shares (up 935,900 from previous week) / Selling balance 544,600 shares / Margin ratio 22.63x
On July 24, 2.5 million shares were forced out. This is good. Evidence that cleanup is progressing.
The problem is what came next.
On July 31, the buying balance increased again by 936,000 shares.
This means that many people newly entered on margin when the price had dropped 60% from the high.
Converting at the July 31 closing price of 46,500 yen, the buying balance is approximately 573 billion yen.
About 2.25% of the total shares outstanding.
As long as this is sitting on top, the stock price is heavy.
Even if it recovers, selling from people who were waiting there will come down.
Furthermore, the deadline for system margin trading is 6 months.
The deadline for those who bought on margin during the high period in June and July is around the end of the year to January 2027.
Until that deadline selling is exhausted, the upside will remain heavy.
That's why I'll say it clearly.
Those currently holding after buying high on margin will not be saved.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2082013466119078005
There are so many people writing "It's the second Metaplanet."
This comparison is the height of stupidity.
Everyone saying this is a fake investor.
This is Metaplanet's current state:
・Current price on August 7: 221 yen / Market cap 283.164 billion yen / PBR 0.70x
・The state where the company's price is below the value of its Bitcoin holdings (mNAV 0.85x) continues.
・Exercise of the 27th stock acquisition rights in July was zero. Additional buying has stopped since June 30.
Buying Bitcoin with money raised through capital increases.
That mechanism has stopped working.
Unless they start some other crazy business, I don't think the stock price will return.
In contrast, Kioxia:
・A real business spun off from Toshiba. It has factories and manufacturing technology.
・It has an actual product called BiCS10 with 332 layers (the latest memory with 332 layers of storage stacked).
・Market cap is approximately 26.5 trillion yen / PBR is over 10x based on actual results.
In terms of market cap, there is a 94x difference.
Comparing them just because the chart shapes look similar is a mistake in the first place.
Semiconductors and memory are like water for humans or petroleum-derived fuel for machines.
・Development of AI
・Autonomous driving
・AI robots
・Devices coming after smartphones (smart glasses, contact lens types)
No matter which one you do, you need components that store information.
Semiconductors and memory will never disappear from this world.
Moreover, as Kioxia is a company spun off from Toshiba, it is the crystallization of Japan's strength in manufacturing and processing technology.
It is one of the few companies with technology that Japan can be proud of globally.
Don't put a company like that on the same shelf as a company that just holds coins bought with capital increases.
If you're going to compare, compare it to Lasertec.
The most prominent company that has always stayed at the top of trading volume in semiconductor-related stocks. What has it done in the past?
1st Time
・High on January 4, 2022: 36,090 yen
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・Low on October 3, 2022: 14,320 yen (-60.3%)
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・Hit 45,500 yen on May 23, 2024, updating its all-time high (3.18x from the bottom)
2nd Time
・High on May 23, 2024: 45,500 yen
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・Low on April 7, 2025: 10,245 yen (-77.5% = less than 1/4)
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・Hit 58,580 yen on June 19, 2026, updating its all-time high again (5.72x from the bottom)
Looking at a longer scale, from 1,261.5 yen on January 4, 2019, to 58,580 yen on June 19, 2026, it's about 46x.
However, it sandwiched two crashes of 60% and 80% along the way.
**
Semiconductors are a business of such cycles.
They fall, are forgotten, and rise again.
And today.
Lasertec, which just updated its all-time high, issued record profits and a dividend increase, and fell 13.55%.
In other words, the same thing is happening at this very moment.
When I say "another big rally will come to Kioxia," I'm talking about this pattern.
I'm not talking about it returning tomorrow or next month.
Here, let me also write something inconvenient for me.
Before that, let me organize the types of memory just once.
・DRAM = The size of the work desk. When you turn off the power, everything on the desk disappears.
・NAND = The capacity of the drawers. Even if you turn off the power, the contents remain.
Kioxia only makes the drawers.
On top of that, the supply-demand outlook released by TrendForce on July 30 is as follows:
・DRAM (desks) will still be in short supply in 2026. The shortage will widen further in 2027.
・On the other hand, NAND (drawers) is predicted to turn into oversupply in late 2027.
・The side increasing drawers includes SK Hynix's 321 layers, Samsung's over 290 layers, and Kioxia's own 332-layer BiCS10.
In short, what will be in short supply is the desk side.
Kioxia is a drawer specialist and doesn't make desks.
This structure is a straightforward headwind.
If demand for memory used by autonomous AI (agentic AI) grows beyond expectations, this oversupply might not come.
Through 2026, the NAND supply shortage is expected to continue and prices are expected to remain high.
But nothing is absolute.
I am bullish for the long term.
That said, I'm writing these risks without hiding them.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2077626833772966162
Now for the main point.
What separates those who are saved from those who aren't isn't stock selection.
It's whether you can make time your ally. That's all.
・Margin trading has a deadline. It also costs interest. That's why time is the enemy.
・Spot trading has no deadline. It doesn't cost interest. That's why time is an ally.
Even for those in spot trading with an acquisition price over 100,000 yen, there is a sufficient possibility of turning positive in 5 or 10 years.
However, just praying and holding isn't enough.
If you have surplus funds, you buy more at the bottom to lower your average acquisition price.
Doing it with living expenses is out of the question.
Only those who can do this can truly make time their ally.
So, where does that money to buy more come from?
Not from your salary.
Money squeezed out by cutting back on living expenses usually runs out halfway.
In that back-report, I've included the procedure for pulling this margin buying balance yourself.
I'll write how to receive it at the end of the article.
■ 4. Where to Get the Money for Averaging Down
Before that, let me crush one thing.
Opportunity loss is not a real loss.
If you just didn't buy, not a single yen has decreased from your wallet.
Real loss is being egged on to buy at a high price and actually melting your money.
The most important rule in investing is just one.
Don't lose money.
On top of that, become someone who can pick things up when they drop.
To do that, you need additional cash you can put in.
This is where many people get stuck.
Even if you assume you save 50,000 yen every month and invest it at 5% annually, the increase in one year is only a little over 10,000 yen.
・Enduring without air conditioning
↓
・Telling your child "Please endure this month"
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・A little over 10,000 yen in a year
It's not that the system is bad.
NISA is a good system.
But if you use the system while your capital remains small, the amount that increases is just small.
So, there's something to do before messing with the yield.
・Strengthen your funding power, that is, the seed money itself.
・Have one axis for earning outside of your salary and increase the capital you turn over to investment.
A snowball is entirely determined by the size of the initial ball.
Between someone with 1 million yen in seed money and someone with 10 million yen, the way it increases is 10 times different even in the same market.
Moreover, if you have an earning axis outside of your salary, your life won't be shaken even if stocks go down.
Even if Kioxia wanders in the 40,000 yen range, you can properly listen to your child's stories at the dinner table.
Conversely, for those holding with thin seed money, the stock price determines your mood.
Your wife and children are the ones who bathe in that mood most closely every day. Do you realize it's not just your account that's being burned?
■ 5. These Are the 3 Earning Axes I'm Doing
The earning axis I'm doing is product sales (reselling).
Here, voices saying "Reselling is evil" always arise.
It's a fact that there are idiots doing bad things.
But the essence of business has been "buy low, sell high" for hundreds of years.
Wholesalers, retailers, and convenience stores all work on this mechanism.
Stocks are exactly the same.
Attacking product sales is the same as attacking your own stocks.
I handle these three pillars.
Rolex (The absolute main)
・Just by buying at list price at an authorized dealer and selling to a buyer, you get hundreds of thousands of yen in profit.
・If you do it as a couple, it accumulates over the year.
・If you hold it long, you can also get price appreciation. You can leave it as a cool asset for your son or grandson.
・And normally, it makes you popular.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2078450259706167390
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2073902978462031923
Pokemon Cards
・Procure new expansion boxes at list price through lotteries or stores.
・You can get a plus even by selling immediately, and a plus by letting them sit.
・Rare singles can turn into more than ten-baggers over years.
・The opposite of memory: "Popularity x Finite." The price goes up as the number decreases.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2079830649179906084
iPhone
・The royal road of product sales: procure cheap and sell to a buyer.
・*However, profits are thin now. It's fine to restart after the next new model comes out.
・So for now, prioritize Rolex and Pokemon cards.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2048988220751515987
Create an earning axis of 100,000 to 200,000 yen a month with these three.
When you have over 1 million yen in seed money in a year, the way you fight in stocks truly changes.
Instead of being chased by deadlines and throwing, you can move to the side that calmly picks things up with cash when they've finished dropping.
Specific methods for product sales can be read for free from the rich menu of my official LINE. I've placed articles on how to start Rolex, Pokemon cards, and iPhone reselling.
■ 6. Why I Insist on Being on the "Side That Can Wait"
I was also a person on the side who bought at a high price and couldn't move.
In my mid-20s, I threw 10 million yen into the IPO of U-NEXT, which was a hot topic at the time.
I saw the news of the listing, didn't want to miss out, and jumped in without even looking at the price.
From there, the stock price dropped, dropped, and kept dropping lol
10 million became 1.7 million.
The portion I bought on margin was hit by margin calls and I was forcibly blown out.
I didn't even have the right to make a judgment.
Only the spot holdings remained.
I never cut losses on those spot holdings.
I couldn't.
"It's dropped this far, so it'll return eventually."
I was just holding while telling myself that every day lol
Eventually, I moved the brokerage app icon to the folder furthest back on my home screen lol
I felt like if I didn't look, it hadn't decreased lol
This is the exact opposite of "making time your ally."
Even with the same holding,
・Holding after deciding to wait
・Being unable to move because you're afraid to look
These two are completely different things.
The reason I couldn't move back then wasn't because I lacked guts.
It was because not a single yen of cash remained to buy more.
Because I had poured everything in, I couldn't do anything when it dropped.
I had nothing to do but pray.
That's why now, I distribute the method of creating seed money before talking about stock issues.
Now, on Saturday mornings, my son says "Take me somewhere."
My reply only needs to be "Where do you want to go?"
I absolutely don't want to be a father who replies only after checking the numbers in his account in his head.
I am increasing my assets to never run out of the state where I can answer that immediately.
I'll also write the goal I've placed beyond that.
To build a facility in my hometown to reduce culling in this country.
To create a society where people whose hearts are broken can normally receive counseling.
Animals that remain unsold are suffocated with gas and burned.
Because babies have shallow breathing, they are sometimes burned alive.
Since the day I learned that in middle school, this part hasn't changed by a millimeter.
I don't intend to let either end as mere lip service.
That's why seed money is needed.
Money burns people the moment increasing it becomes the goal itself.
For me, it's a tool to buy time to wait.
That's why I'm distributing the way to create enough cash to wait like this.
■ 7. How to Receive the Back-Report
I'm summarizing today's content in a back-report and giving it away for free on my official LINE.
It contains this:
・The procedure for pulling and reading margin buying balance and margin ratio yourself from JPX data.
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・A diagram aligning Lasertec's two crashes and the subsequent all-time high updates.
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・A roadmap to make 1 million yen a year with the three pillars of product sales (Rolex, Pokemon cards, iPhone).
Here, people saying "Information products are gross" or "LINE induction is suspicious" always emerge.
Recently, someone who forcibly made people join a 5-million-yen school was under fire.
That is truly garbage.
But lumping everything together as "suspicious" is just a suspension of thought.
Cram schools, prep schools, and English conversation schools are all respectable information products.
Even if their child fails their first choice, no parent sues the prep school for fraud.
Please judge with your own head based on the content and the sender's track record.
By the way, after saying all this, my blog and articles are open for free www
The procedure to receive it is these three steps:
1. Join my OpenChat (
↓
2. Register for the official LINE from the announcement section in the OpenChat (you can also read all the detailed articles on product sales in the rich menu).
↓
3. Send "Big Rally" (大相場) to the official LINE.
With this, the back-report will be delivered automatically.
■ 8. Finally
To everyone who read this far, thank you very much.
I will summarize what I wanted to convey today.
・Kioxia's net profit was 46x, Lasertec had record profits and a dividend increase. Even so, they were sold because they didn't reach expectations.
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・Divergence between stock price and business performance happens both upward and downward. Now is the phase where the stock price returns to the business performance.
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・On July 31, the margin buying balance increased again by 936,000 shares. The short term is hell until the deadlines are exhausted.
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・But Lasertec updated its all-time high twice after crashes of 60% and 80%.
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・Kioxia is in the same cycle. In the long term, another big rally will come.
There are no absolutes in the market.
There is also a prediction that NAND will turn into oversupply in late 2027.
This is just my analysis and one of many opinions.
The final judgment is always your own responsibility.
I myself will not chase this stock on margin.
I will just strengthen my seed money and pick it up with cash when it has finished dropping.
I truly hope you are on the side that can immediately answer "Where do you want to go?" on Saturday mornings, rather than the side that throws because they are chased by deadlines.
I'd be happy if this thinking reaches dads and moms in the middle of child-rearing in particular.
You can receive the PDF through the procedure in Section 7, so please make sure to receive it and look through it!
Receive the report from the announcement here ([https://noirstock.com/open](https://noirstock.com/open)).
**
The keyword is "Big Rally" (大相場).
Thank you for reading until the end!
Please also read this!
It lists my crappy background.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2054892774508666997
References
・Kabutan (August 6, 2026) "Lasertec, current period ordinary profit up 16% to record high for first time in 2 periods, to increase dividend by 22 yen" (Company forecast for FY ending June 2027 and dividend increase from 329 yen to 351 yen)
・Diamond ZAi (August 7, 2026) "Lasertec --- Significant continued decline, current period guidance viewed negatively" (Consensus miss and order range)
・Nihon Keizai Shimbun (July 31, 2026) "Kioxia July-September net profit 31x to 1.27 trillion yen, share buyback and stock split also" (April-June net profit 842.1 billion yen, July-September outlook, share buyback limit 800 billion yen, 1-to-3 split)
・Nihon Keizai Shimbun (August 6, 2026) "Kioxia stock price sharp sudden drop, US SanDisk sales outlook below market expectations" (Temporary -11.05% to 48,300 yen, close 48,740 yen)
・Nihon Keizai Shimbun (August 7, 2026) "TSE morning close, Nikkei Average continues to fall, down 644 yen, Lasertec and others sold" (Morning close 65,039.16 yen, drop temporarily over 1,000 yen, morning price movements of Kioxia and Lasertec)
・Japan Exchange Group "Margin Trading Weekend Balance by Issue" (Applications for July 24, 2026, and July 31, 2026. Primary data for buying balance, selling balance, and margin ratio)
・Nihon Keizai Shimbun "Lasertec [6920] Stock Price Trend Over the Past 10 Years" (Highs and lows for each year)
・TrendForce (July 30, 2026) Memory Market Supply-Demand Outlook / Zaikei Shimbun "DRAM to be in short supply until 2028, NAND to turn into oversupply next year" (DRAM shortage continues, NAND predicted to turn into oversupply in late 2027)
・XenoSpectrum "Sales up 372%, gross margin 84.6% but stock price down 9%, why SanDisk bet on a 93.9 billion dollar contract" (SanDisk earnings and three reasons for being sold)
・Yahoo! Finance (August 7, 2026) Kioxia Holdings (285A) and Metaplanet (3350) stock price information (Year-to-date high/low, actual PBR, market cap, total shares outstanding, Metaplanet mNAV and stock acquisition rights status)
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2076569030627143689
