◎4. Magic Sands
Even with a 5th place finish in the previous Hakodate Kinen, the margin was only 0.4 seconds. The horse traveled in the middle of the pack but got boxed into a difficult position at the critical moment, having to weave through traffic in the home stretch. Despite that, it closed the gap well, and the performance carrying 58kg doesn't warrant a downgrade. Two starts back in the Epsom Cup, it finished 4th by 0.2 seconds, lacking smoothness right before the goal. In the last three races—Nakayama Kinen (0.5s gap), Epsom Cup (0.2s gap), and Hakodate Kinen (0.4s gap)—it hasn't won a graded race, but its ability has consistently kept it within striking distance.
What makes it even more attractive this time is drawing Gate 4 in Bracket 2. For a horse that wants to avoid circling wide from the back on the Sapporo 2000m course, this draw significantly increases the chance of securing a mid-pack position with less loss than the previous race. Now that it no longer needs to drop to the very back like it used to, this gate is a clear plus.
With a 2nd place finish in the NHK Mile Cup, it has shown its caliber in G1 races. While popular horses like #1, #7, and #10 each face their own conditional challenges, #4's recent graded race performances translate directly to this stage.
Furthermore, there seem to be no concerns regarding its condition following the last race. It's a bit of a miscalculation that the odds have dropped to the 8x range, but it's still not the first favorite. With three consecutive graded race finishes within 0.5 seconds, a win in a Sapporo graded race, and proven suitability for Western-style turf, it remains a value buy for a horse with G1 placing experience. I see this as the timing for it to finally win.
○13. Grandia
While the outside draw isn't ideal, the balance between ability and popularity earns it a high rating. This year has been stable with a 3rd in the Nakayama Kimpai (no time difference), 3rd in the Osaka Jo Stakes, and 1st in the Niigata Daishoten. The fact that it produced results at both Nakayama 2000m and Niigata 2000m—two very different types of courses—is significant.
It couldn't perform to its potential in last year's Hakodate Kinen, but the cause was cited as the transport, and measures have been taken for this entry. There's no need to dislike Western turf itself. If it doesn't force a position from #13 and gradually advances from the backstretch, it can use its legs until the end.
▲9. Meiner Momment
A must-include. In the previous Tanabata Sho, it carried from mid-pack in a high pace to finish 2nd. It also finished 4th in this year's Nakayama Kinen (0.4s gap) and 4th in the Fukushima Minpo Hai (0.4s gap). It runs consistently in conditions requiring sustained speed on small tracks. Gate 9 in Bracket 5 isn't bad either. If it can secure a mid-pack spot like last time, it can avoid both the risk of being boxed in and the loss of circling wide. The increase to 58kg is a challenge, but even factoring that in, these odds are too high.
☆16. Ho O Biscuits
△15. Shake Your Heart
△7. Shohei
△5. Ecoro Walz
△10. Admire Terra
🔥 Betting Picks 🔥
Win / Place
4
Quinella
4-5, 9, 13, 16
Wide
4-9, 13, 16
Trio (1-horse axis)
4-5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 15, 16
