In the World Cup, where we will appear after a full 24-year hiatus, we will compete against the USA, Paraguay, and Australia in Group D.
We can say our group is the most balanced among the 12 groups in the tournament. Unlike other groups, it is quite difficult to say "This team will definitely finish last" or "This team will definitely finish as leader" for our group.
A total of 32 teams, including the top two from each group (24 teams) and the 8 best third-placed teams, will advance to the Round of 32. However, which group the best third-placed team comes from can radically change the entire tournament bracket.
So, who could we be matched with if we advance from the group? Let's look at the possibilities on the table one by one:
495 Different Scenarios
First of all, the combination calculation of the scenario "which 8 third-placed teams will advance from the 12 groups" creates exactly 495 different possibilities.
This means that FIFA worked on 495 different possibilities one by one before the tournament and created a matching algorithm accordingly. For those who are curious, we are leaving the link to this massive table of probabilities below.
Our analysis in this section will focus on which groups we should actually focus on to see our own path, moving away from this complex table...
The Advantage of Being in Group D
First of all, in the draw, we drew a very advantageous group in terms of Round of 32 scenarios.
Why? Because Group D is one of the lucky groups that, if finished as leader, guarantees a match against a third-placed team from another group.
If we were in groups C, F, H, or J, if we were leaders, we would not have faced one of the best third-placed teams in the next round; we would have faced a team that finished second in another group, which would likely be a much tougher opponent.
The Troublesome Duo: H & J
To understand the value of this situation more clearly, it is enough to look at groups H and J.
In the current table, the probability of Spain and Uruguay taking the top two spots in Group H, and Argentina and Austria in Group J, is quite high. This scenario will lead us to these matches—which are enjoyable to watch from the outside but not expected in the round of 32:
—— Spain - Austria ——
—— Argentina - Uruguay ——
Early Final Possibility
In fact, a small surprise in one of these two groups could bring a Spain - Argentina match, which is expected to be a cup final, to us as early as the Round of 32!
In short; being in Group D largely protects us from falling into such an exhausting and difficult scenario right at the beginning of the tournament.
—— See the Big Picture
Gathering the 495 scenarios mentioned above into a single table will make it much easier to understand the possibilities we will talk about shortly. The values in the rows and columns in the visual clearly show which group can match with which group.
For example; the Group C leader (1C) will definitely play against the Group F runner-up (2F), as you can see in the table.
For the Group G leader (1G), the calculations are a bit more complicated. When we break down the 495 different possibilities, the Group G leader faces:
✧ In 314 possibilities: Group A 3rd (3A),
✧ In 85 possibilities: Group H 3rd (3H),
✧ In 49 possibilities: Group J 3rd (3J),
✧ In 41 possibilities: Group I 3rd (3I),
✧ In 6 possibilities: Group E 3rd (3E).
Which of these 5 different options will occur depends entirely on which groups the best 8 third-placed teams come from.
However, looking at the weight in the table, it would not be wrong to make this projection:
If the third-placed team from Group A manages to be among the best 8 third-placed teams; the Group G leader and the Group A 3rd will match with each other with a probability of over 90%.
—— Now it's time to customize this general table for our own group (Group D)!
In order to see our roadmap in the tournament and our potential opponents clearly; let's examine the scenarios that will arise if we finish the group as leader, runner-up, or best third separately.
First, we start with our strongest and most advantageous scenario, Group D leadership: ℹ
—— If We Finish the Group as Leader
We mentioned that if we complete the group as leader, we will face a third-placed team from another group in the Round of 32. In this scenario, our opponent will be one of the third-placed teams from groups B, E, F, I, or J.
However, there is no balanced distribution here. That is, according to the mathematical template prepared by FIFA, the probabilities of the Group D leader matching with the third-placed teams of these 5 different groups are not equal.
If we manage to finish the group as leader, the rates of our potential opponents are shaped exactly as follows:
- With 66% probability (329/495): Group B 3rd
- With 13% probability (64/495): Group J 3rd
- With 11% probability (52/495): Group I 3rd
- With 8% probability (39/495): Group E 3rd
- With 2% probability (11/495): Group F 3rd
As can be seen, the moment we sit in the leadership seat, we will set our sights directly on the third-place struggle in Group B with an overwhelming rate of 66%.
As matches are played, the probability of best third-placed teams emerging from some groups will increase, while in others, this probability will gradually decrease.
Here, the platform we developed together with @AkilOyunuYT will be at your service so that you can follow this dynamic process moment by moment and live! After every match played throughout the tournament, you will be able to examine which teams our matching probability has increased or decreased with instant updated data from this website.
— https://www.akiloyunu.com/odds?c=WC&t=predicted
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—— Returning to the Leadership Scenario:
If the Group B third-placed team manages to be among the best 8 third-placed teams, i.e., is not eliminated, it will be the opponent of the Group D leader (which we hope is us) in the Round of 32 with an almost certain probability of 99%. FIFA's matching key gives incredible weight here.
If we look at the other side of the coin and assume that the Group B third-placed team said goodbye to the tournament due to low points or average, our route changes:
- In this scenario, the probability of our opponent being one of the third-placed teams from groups E, I, or J is very high.
- The Group F third-placed team stands aside as the lowest probability alternative that can come across us among these combinations.
❌ Groups We Will Definitely Not Face: According to the template; the probability of facing the third-placed teams of groups C, G, H, K, and L in the Round of 32 is 0%. The third-placed teams of these groups remain completely outside our tournament tree for the round of 32.
—— If We Finish the Group as Runner-up
Come on, let's refresh our memories a bit and go to that legendary tournament that those old enough will remember very well, 2002.
That year, we finished our group in second place after Brazil and matched with Japan, one of the hosts of the tournament, in the Round of 16. Japan had come across us by finishing the group containing Russia, Belgium, and Tunisia as leader.
So, what will a similar runner-up scenario bring us in 2026?
In this World Cup, if we complete the group in second place, we will share our trump cards not with a tournament host, but with the runner-up of another group.
Moreover, the scenario here is not complex or confusing like the leadership possibilities we just mentioned; the table is extremely clear:
If we finish the group second; we will match with the runner-up of Group G, consisting of Belgium, Iran, Egypt, and New Zealand.
Since Belgium is far from its old strength, we cannot call them the leader on paper. Considering New Zealand's squad strength, it seems that our opponent in the round of 32 will likely be Belgium, Iran, or Egypt.
So, who do you think will emerge as second from this tough group and become our opponent? Let's meet in the comments! ℹ
If we finish the group second; we will either open a brand new page with a team we have never played an official match against in our football history, or we will share our trump cards in the Round of 32 of the World Cup with Belgium, whom we last faced in that historic group match at Euro 2000, leaving aside the qualifying matches!
—— We Could Plunge the World Cup into Chaos!
Here, it is necessary to mention that crazy scenario that the whole world will stop football and talk about after the 2nd matches of the group stage. Looking at the table, there is a clear fact: The Group D runner-up (2D) and the Group G runner-up (2G) definitely match with each other in the Round of 32.
This is exactly where the movie breaks:
If Iran progresses towards finishing Group G in second place; our last group match against the host USA on June 26 will turn into a match that not only football fans but all world media and politics will follow closely. Because the USA's second place in the group, and therefore its fate, will depend on the score of the match it will play with us!
Exactly 24 hours after our group's curtain closes, Iran will play the critical Egypt match that will determine its place in the group. The results to be obtained in these two days could let us watch a historic Iran - USA match in the Round of 32 that will turn the headlines upside down.
And the most fantastic part is; we might be holding the key to this match that the whole world will wait for with bated breath, as we face the USA in the last match in Group D!
—— If We Complete the Group as Best Third
Just like in the leadership scenario, if we finish the group third, there will be a sea of possibilities with many unknowns before us. Of course, in order to talk about these possibilities, we must first be among the 8 best third-placed teams. Otherwise, we will say goodbye to the tournament early and in a heartbreaking way.
So, how many points and what kind of average will be required to get out of the group?
According to the results of 10 thousand different simulations we performed, the threshold estimates and our survival rates are shaped exactly as follows:
- 3 Points (Independent of average): Provides a 63% probability of advancing to the next round.
- If the average is -3: Our probability of getting out of the group drops to 50%.
- If the average is -4: Our chance drops to 32%.
- If the average is -5: The probability crashes down to 16%.
As can be seen, even if we put 3 points in our pocket, every goal we concede or score in the group, that is, our general average not falling into the negatives, will have a vital importance in determining our fate in the tournament.
—— Our Potential Opponents on the Path to Third Place
Let's take another look at our giant probability table to see our possible opponents. However, this time we are not looking horizontally at the 1D row as in the leadership scenario; we will focus vertically on the 3D (Group D Third) column to examine the scenarios that will arise if we finish the group as the best third.
When we go down from top to bottom in the vertical 3D column in the table, we see that there are numbers (probabilities) only in the rows of certain group leaders. This reveals the leaders we can clash with if we tour as the best third and the mathematical weights of those matches.
—— Who Can We Match With If We Get Out of the Group as Third?
If we complete the group as one of the best third-placed teams, this time the rules are reversed and we enter a relentless elimination struggle with the leader of another group. When we examine the vertical 3D column in the table; we can clearly see that our opponent could be group leaders coming from groups E, I, or K.
Just like in the leadership scenario, there is no balanced distribution here. That is, the probability of the Group D third-placed team matching with these three group leaders is not distributed equally according to the mathematical template issued by FIFA.
If we complete the group in third place and write our name in the next round, the rates of our potential opponents are shaped exactly as follows:
- With 64% probability (212/330): Group E Leader
- With 30% probability (99/330): Group I Leader
- With 6% probability (19/330): Group K Leader
As can be seen, in the scenario where we tour as the best third, our route will be directly to the team at the top of Group E with a dominant rate of 64%.
So, which countries are in these groups we mentioned? Let's take a closer look at the teams of those groups to see our possible opponents more clearly:
- Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaao
- Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq
- Group K: Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Looking at the general balance of the groups and the mathematical weights we just shared (64% Group E, 30% Group I); it would definitely not be wrong to say that if we complete the group in third place, our probability of matching with a giant European representative (such as Germany, France, or Portugal) in the Round of 32 is quite high.
—— The Most Likely Giants We Could Face If We Are Third:
• France: A squad pool so deep and frightening that it could easily produce a second team to see the quarter-finals even from the bench.
• Norway: A team that can cause nightmares for any defense with their unstoppable power in the offensive line.
• Portugal: That tough opponent who has always been difficult for us, against whom we have not even been able to get a draw in official matches throughout our history.
• Germany: The panzers who manage to be a "tournament team" in one way or another with their famous discipline on both good and bad days.
Looking at the large share of 64% in the probability template, Germany stands out as the team we have the highest probability of matching with in the Round of 32 among these four heavyweights.
Of course, as we have witnessed many times in previous tournaments; the World Cup is always pregnant with big surprises, shock results, and rule-breaking rankings. Therefore, it is too early to enter into definite assumptions already; it is best to wait for those exciting moments when the ball will turn on the field!
—— Our Tournament Path and All Possibilities
We tried to explain our National Team's potential Round of 32 journey in the World Cup and the scenarios that may come across us in all details. Now, let's end our series with a great visual that makes all these complex mathematical possibilities understandable at a single glance.
The flow chart we prepared clearly reveals which pots our national team can match with according to the degree they will complete the group (Leadership, Second, Third, or Fourth) and our risk of elimination.
As clearly seen in the chart; while the lion's share in case of leadership is reserved for B3, i.e., the Group B third-placed team, second place connects us directly to the Group G runner-up. In the third-place scenario, our probabilities of advancing to the next round and our risk of elimination fight side by side. Here, the high probability of facing the Group B third-placed team in the leadership scenario is proportional to FIFA's tournament matching matrix we mentioned above, not to team strengths.
— Note: In this flow chart, the current power balances or squad qualities of the teams have been ignored, and it is based entirely on FIFA's official tournament algorithm and mathematical probabilities.
—— How Does the Scenario Change If Elo Ratings Come Into Play?
When we remodel the same flow chart and tournament probabilities over Elo ratings, which reflect the current power balances of the teams; the teams we have a chance to face in the Round of 32 are listed as follows: ℹ
When the teams came into play, the visual became more complex, but the teams we have a high probability of facing are clearly visible.
—— And Finally: The Tournament Tree and Our Roadmap!
Let's end our article series with that famous "World Cup Tournament Tree" (Bracket) that we all love the most and that brings the World Cup excitement to the peak.
Mathematical models and percentages aside; drawing your own roadmap by taking into account the surprises on the field when the tournament starts and predicting the matches is a completely different pleasure. We have prepared our imaginary tournament tree in line with our own predictions as follows:
✠ Our World Cup Scenario:
- Round of 32: We successfully emerge from our group and manage to overcome the Algeria obstacle we matched with in this round.
- Round of 16: Our opponent at this stage is South Korea, who eliminated Belgium. We emerge victorious from a tough struggle and write our name in the quarter-finals.
- ❌ Quarter-Final: This is where Spain, almost the "end-of-level boss" of the tournament, stands before us, and we say goodbye to the tournament in this match.
❀ Championship Podium: Spain, who eliminated Our Boys in the quarter-finals, takes the World Cup to its museum by defeating the last champion Argentina coming from the other arm of the tournament in the giant final. England completes the tournament in third place.
So, when you look at the big picture, how is your tournament scenario shaped? How far do you think Our Boys will walk, who will lift this giant trophy last?
https://www.akiloyunu.com/bracket
You can also visit our website to create your own tournament tree and visualize your predictions, and share the visuals you prepared with us under this tweet! ℹ
We sincerely wish success to #Bizimocuklar in this great World Cup adventure!
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