This is a simple story: if you do the opposite of this, you will survive.
OK?
So,
You still have those stocks you couldn't cut losses on in your account, right?
And every time you open your account, that's the first thing you see, right?
You've bought after seeing it go up, sold after it went down, and then silently watched it recover, right?
And today, somewhere in your mind, you're thinking, "I'll make it back with the next one," right?
Stop it.
That "making it back with the next one" is what deletes your account.
I've been doing individual stocks for a long time, and I've seen more people disappear from the market than I care to count.
There was a time when I almost became one of them myself.
And as I kept watching, I realized something.
There are only about 5 patterns of how people "die."
Moreover, I used to do all five of them myself lol.
So today, I'm going to share the "5 types of people who die instantly in investing" that I've observed.
■ 1. The 5 Types Who Die Instantly in Investing
First, let's list all five.
1. The Weathercock (Locust)
2. The Dream Chaser
3. The Pickle (Salted Position)
4. The Hunch-damental (Position Addiction)
5. The Tofu Mental
Think about which one you are as you read.
Probably, it won't be just one.
In my experience, 70-80% of people who start individual stocks disappear within a year.
The reason is almost always the same.
They run out of money.
However, it's no use just talking about my feelings, so I'll provide some verifiable numbers.
There is a study that analyzed 15 years of all transactions (1992-2006) on the Taiwan Stock Exchange.
The survival rate of individuals who dabbled in short-term trading was this:
・44% remain after 1 year
・24% after 2 years
・15% after 3 years
↓
In 2 years, 3 out of 4 people disappear.
There is an even more explicit study in Brazil.
Among individuals who continued trading stock index futures for more than 300 days, 97% lost money.
Only 0.4% exceeded the salary of a bank teller ($54 per day).
The feeling that 70-80% leave within a year is probably not that far off.
Now, from here.
These 5 types might look like different diseases, right?
They aren't.
They all have one single root.
I'll write my conclusion first.
All five stem from the impatience of "having to make it back in one go."
And the true identity of that impatience is thin seed money.
Making back 200,000 yen in a 1 million yen account requires a completely different amount of risk than making back 200,000 yen in a 10 million yen account.
A thin account forces you to be reckless just by existing.
One more thing.
You haven't decided anything before buying.
・Why are you buying?
・At what point will you cut losses if it goes down?
・Under what conditions will you buy more?
・How long will you hold it?
Because you buy with these four blanks empty, the moment it drops, the only thing left to do is "pray."
I want you to look at the 5 types with these two things in mind.
By the way, I've written a whole post before about the actual scene where most people die from these five.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2076569030627143689
■ 2. Looking at the 5 Types One by One
Type 1: The Weathercock (Locust)
・The one who turns after the wind blows
・Complete latecomer
・Buys stocks circulating on 𝕏 with a market order on the same day
Why does this lead to death?
In a rising market, there are usually three types of people.
・People who were already positioned
・People who take profit at the first rise
・People who enter at the second rise and get hunted at the end
The Weathercock is always the third one.
That's because by the time it becomes a topic of conversation, someone is already positioned.
Academically, this is clear. A study of US individual investors' trading found that individuals are likely to be net buyers of these three:
・Stocks that appeared in the news
・Stocks with abnormally high volume
・Stocks that moved extremely in one day
It's not the same when selling. You can only choose to sell from the stocks you own, but you can choose to buy from thousands of stocks. That's why people are sucked into the ones that stand out.
This isn't a personality problem; it's a structural problem.
The prescription is one thing: Factorization.
Can you explain "why this is going up" in your own words? If you can't, you're just riding along. People who are just riding along don't know how to get off.
I check 𝕏 every day too. The reason I don't become a Weathercock is blunt: I don't buy stocks that are going up. I buy stocks that are going down.
Even if I learn about a hot stock, I don't buy it on the spot. I throw it into a watchlist and go to sleep for the night. If I still feel the same level of "want to buy" the next morning, only then do I start researching. A "want to buy" that disappears overnight is just heat.
Type 2: The Dream Chaser
・Holds based on dreams, potential, and infatuation with technology rather than numbers
・Everything is explained by "This is definitely coming"
This type has some good points. They don't regret much even if the stock keeps falling. They are putting money into things they like, so they don't blame others.
So what's the problem? Time disappears while assets don't increase.
Being a good thing and the stock price rising are two different things. If it's not bought, the stock price won't rise. This is the most cruel part for the Dream Chaser.
For example, if a 60-year-old puts all their wealth into one technological theme, and that technology really blooms 10 years later, that person will be 70. The technology was right, but their life time was insufficient.
When humans say "it's coming," they are usually speaking with a faster clock than reality. If you go see the actual site, it's common to find it's "not really like that."
The prescription has three parts:
1. Decide the time horizon first (by when will you get off if it hasn't come?)
2. See the actual site if possible (factories, stores, the state of the town)
3. See if attention has started to gather (has the trading volume become thick?)
The third point isn't saying "if volume goes up, the price goes up." There's no such law. However, stocks that aren't being noticed won't move until they are noticed. It's just a matter of acknowledging that fact.
Also, the worst kind is the "Rationalizing Dream Chaser." The one who creates the reason "because this is coming in the future" after buying. This isn't a Dream Chaser; it's the third type coming up next.
Type 3: The Pickle (Salted Position)
・Continues to hold unrealized losses by retrofitting reasons
・"Because it's a long-term investment," "Because there are dividends," "Because it will return someday"
Let me tell you, this isn't a matter of guts. The human brain is designed to feel the pain of loss more heavily than the joy of gain. This was organized over 40 years ago in Prospect Theory in behavioral economics.
That's why you don't want to finalize it. The moment you sell, the "loss" is finalized. As long as you hold it, you can pretend you haven't lost yet.
Looking at the numbers, it's brutal. A study of 10,000 US brokerage accounts over 7 years (1987-1993):
・The ratio of selling stocks with unrealized gains was 57% on average
・The ratio of selling stocks with unrealized losses was 36%
↓
Selling winning stocks and keeping losing stocks.
And what follows is even more brutal. The winning stocks that were sold had a 3.4% higher return over the following year than the losing stocks that were kept. The ones kept "thinking they would return" were the ones losing.
It's the same in Japan. A survey of about 5,000 people holding securities conducted by the Japan Securities Dealers Association in 2025. The reasons for selling in 2024 were:
・To lock in profits: 74.9%
・To cut losses: 27.9%
Profit-taking is roughly three times more common than stop-loss. By the way, in the same survey, only 9.0% of people answered that they "incurred a trading loss" in 2024. I wonder if that's really true lol.
I differentiate my response based on the level of unrealized loss. I'll leave this here as a way of thinking, not about specific stocks.
・Around minus 20%: I cut it honestly. This feels the most refreshing.
・Around minus 50%: Ambiguous. Depending on the news, I might hold or decide to buy more.
・Down to minus 95%: Even if I sell, almost no money comes back. I'll leave it and wait 20 years.
The scariest thing about the Pickle is that it doesn't just shave off money. Every time you open your account, that thing catches your eye. Every time you see the numbers, you remember your judgment that day. This is just a curse. Your judgment is shaved off a little bit every day.
Type 4: The Hunch-damental (Position Addiction)
・Doesn't use fundamentals
・Doesn't use technicals
・Enters with "Doesn't this look good?"
There are people like this in the professional world, and some hit the mark. However, when an ordinary person does it, it becomes disastrous. And the main issue isn't the hunch, but the position addiction. The act of holding a position itself has become the goal.
No news, no catalyst, yet you can't settle down unless you've bought something. Some people say, "Stocks are investment, not gambling." But if you bought Toyota just for now without knowing what will happen to it tomorrow, that's gambling. The product isn't the gamble. It becomes a gamble based on how you approach it.
There are numbers for this too. A study tracking the trading of 66,465 US households over 6 years (1991-1996):
・Annual return of the top 20% with the most trades: 11.4%
・Market during the same period: 17.9%
・Average household: 16.4%
The people who moved the most lost the most.
The prescription is just two words:
Wait.
The timing to invest will surely come. Just by stopping "investing anytime," your survival rate changes. Also, even if the Nikkei is stopped, USD/JPY, gold, and bonds are moving. There is a market outside the box you are looking at. Increasing positions to try to make back losses is the ultimate hell. I also dabbled in margin trading for that reason and got cleanly burned.
Type 5: The Tofu Mental
・The opposite of a demon mental
・Sells when it drops, buys when it rises
・Keeps getting hit by the "double slap"
The flow of the double slap is usually decided:
・Sells immediately after buying because of a slight drop, unable to endure it
・Starts rising nonchalantly the day after selling
・Thinks "I was right after all" and buys back higher up
・That's the ceiling, and it drops again
・This time decides "I won't sell anymore" and becomes unable to cut
Looks familiar, right? I did this many times. Moreover, the number of shares is usually higher when I caught it at the top. Selling a little at the bottom and buying a lot at the top. I was always doing the larger amount on the wrong side. Eventually, I couldn't trust my own judgment, and my hands started moving according to what someone said on 𝕏. Once you reach that point, it's no longer investing.
I can't laugh at people doing this now.
That's the 5 types.
By the way, I've summarized these 5 types into a 5-page A4 secret report and am distributing it for free on my official LINE. It includes a check sheet to determine which type you are in 15 seconds and prescriptions for each type. I'll guide you on how to receive it at the end of the article, so please read to the end.
And these 5 types don't end as one-offs. They rotate.
Get hit by a double slap with Tofu Mental
↓
Become unable to cut and become a Pickle
↓
Become Hunch-damental trying to make it back
↓
Finally settle into a Dream Chaser
Do you know why it stops at Dream Chaser? Because it's easy. Because you don't have to think about anything.
"It will come someday" is a magic phrase that means you don't have to blame yourself.
And the entrance to all 5 types is the same: The impatience of having to make it back in one go. That impatience is born from thin seed money. Because the seed money is thin, the risk of one trade becomes heavy. Because one trade is heavy, you become unable to cut. Because you can't cut, your next judgment is also distorted.
They say "he who laughs at one yen will cry for one yen." The money you melted is the same. Calling lost money "tuition fees" is usually an afterthought. Rephrasing real estate bought at a high price as "this is for tax savings" is the exact same structure. Humans are creatures that justify their own failures.
But listen. You aren't the only one troubled by getting burned. My son doesn't know a single thing about what I bought. He just receives the results of my mistakes without knowing. Do you realize that?
■ 3. Add One More Pillar of Earning. That is Deposit Power.
So, what do we do about the "thin seed money" that is the source of impatience?
Tweaking the yield won't work.
Searching for stocks won't work.
You have no choice but to thicken the capital itself.
NISA accounts increased to 26.96 million by the end of June 2025. The system is now completely established. But the fact that accounts have increased and the fact that household finances have become easier are different stories.
Suppose you save and invest 30,000 yen every month. 360,000 yen a year. Assuming you manage this at 5% per year, the amount it increases in one year is about 8,300 yen.
・Enduring without air conditioning
↓
・Reducing eating out
↓
・Telling your child "Endure it this month"
↓
・8,300 yen in a year
I'm not saying the system is bad. NISA is a good system. If you use the system while your capital is small, the amount it increases will just be small. And the most dangerous thing is to think "then I'll take more risk" here.
The hype that you'll lose out if you're late is called opportunity loss. But opportunity loss isn't a real loss. If you don't buy, not a single yen will decrease from your wallet.
The real loss is being hyped into grabbing something high and having your money actually melt.
The most important rule in investing is just one:
Don't lose money.
On top of that, don't get the order wrong.
・Thicken the deposit power, the seed money itself to be put into investment
↓
・Add one more pillar of earning besides your salary
A snowball is entirely determined by the size of the initial ball. A person with 1 million yen in seed money and a person with 10 million yen. Even if they make the same judgment in the same market, the amount they increase is 10 times different. And people with thick seed money don't get impatient in the first place. Because they don't get impatient, they don't become any of the 5 types. It's not that they can't cut losses; they've just pushed in so far that cutting losses would hurt their daily life.
■ 4. The 3 Pillars of Earning I'm Doing
Here, voices will surely arise saying "Reselling is evil."
But the essence of business for hundreds of years has just been "buy low, sell high."
Wholesale, retail, supermarkets, convenience stores—they all use this mechanism. The ingredients you bought today weren't at cost price. Stocks are exactly the same. Buy low, sell high. Attacking reselling is the same as attacking your own stocks.
These are the three pillars I'm doing:
Rolex (The Absolute Favorite)
・Buying at list price at an authorized dealer and just passing it to a buyer yields hundreds of thousands of yen in profit
・If a couple does it, it accumulates normally over a year
・If held for a long time, you can also take the price increase. It can be left as a cool asset for sons and grandsons
・Also, it just makes you popular lol
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2078450259706167390
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2073902978462031923
Pokemon Cards
・Procure new expansion boxes at list price through lotteries or stores
・Easy to get a plus even with immediate sale, and easy to get a plus even if left to sit
・Rare singles can turn into ten-baggers or more over years
・Unlike stocks, it's "popularity x finite." The price goes up as the number decreases
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2079830649179906084
iPhone
・The classic reselling of procuring cheap and passing to a buyer
・*However, profits are thin now, so it's fine to restart after the iPhone 18 comes out
・So for now, prioritize Rolex and PokeCa
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2044583617230438631
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2043502084633567257
With these three, create a pillar of earning 100,000 to 200,000 yen a month.
When you can create seed money of over 1 million yen in a year, the way you fight in stocks really changes. The person who was flustered with a 1 million yen account stops being flustered. Cutting losses becomes a "painful but normal task." This is the most realistic route to escape from the 5 types. Specific methods for reselling can be read for free from the rich menu of the official LINE. I've put up articles on how to start Rolex, PokeCa, and iPhone respectively.
■ 5. The Real Reason I'm Distributing "Earning Power"
I've been talking about the 5 types, but I've done them all myself www
Back when I was in my 20s. There was a time when U-NEXT had just gone public and its name appeared everywhere you opened. Without researching a single catalyst, I bought it thinking I had entered at a good position. I couldn't explain in a single word why I bought it at the time. This is the No. 1 Locust lol. 10 million yen became 1.7 million yen lol. I couldn't cut losses even once lol. Every time it dropped, I told myself "this is the bottom," and finally I even dabbled in margin trading and even got a margin call www. Finally, I moved the app icon to the very back of a folder. So at that time, I was a No. 3 Pickle and a No. 5 Tofu Mental. Moreover, the entrance was a No. 1 Weathercock. A full house.
And what was really shaved off then wasn't money.
・I started calculating "can I make it back with this" no matter what I saw
・I became unable to decide for myself, and my hands moved according to other people's posts
・My judgment was broken, yet I had absolutely no awareness that it was broken
Even now, I can tell for myself on days when I have unrealized losses. When I go to the supermarket with my son and he asks, "Daddy, can I buy this?" Before looking at the price tag, my mouth automatically moves to say, "Let's not today." It's not that I don't have money. It's just that I don't have any margin in my head. On days I do that, I'm apologizing alone in the car on the way home.
Those two seconds linger much longer than the numbers in the account.
That's why now, I put money into my wife's and son's accounts every year within the range that doesn't incur gift tax. It's not money to aim for a big hit. it's money so that even if I disappear tomorrow, the lives of these two won't shake by even 1 millimeter. I've lived since the first year of junior high school covering up symptoms of panic disorder. I thought I could hide it with willpower. That all erupted after my son was born. I've also received a diagnosis of depression. I haven't admitted the depression part yet though www. Well, seriously, I don't know how long I'll be able to move. So, I move while I can. What I'm going for isn't the numbers in the account.
・The few seconds at the register where I don't check the price tag
↓
・The atmosphere on the night my son says "I want to do this" where I don't have to say a single word about money
↓
・The day the Rolex I eventually pass to my son becomes not just a thing, but passing on "earning power itself"
Beyond that, there are two more big goals. Creating Japan's largest animal protection facility in my hometown. And creating a culture in this country where receiving counseling is normal. I want to make it a country where people whose hearts are weary can consult with the same feeling as a cold. Because I was on the side that was saved to death there. Both won't move a single step without money. Money isn't the goal. It's the means. That's why I'm distributing the way to thicken seed money rather than the technique of jumping on hot stocks. Well, it's something like this. I don't know if I'm saying it well, but this is the thinking I use every day.
■ 6. How to Receive the Secret Report
I've summarized today's 5 types into a 5-page A4 secret report and am distributing it for free on my official LINE. I've only included things I didn't write in the main text.
・5-type self-diagnosis check sheet (your type comes out just by answering questions)
↓
・Prescription sheet by type (Symptoms → What to stop today → What to do today, in 3 lines for all types)
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・A 1-page rule entry template to "fill in before buying" (Reason for buying / Where to cut if it drops / Under what conditions to buy more / How long to hold)
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・A roadmap to create 1 million yen in seed money per year with 3 pillars of earning, and back-calculated actions to do in the first month
If you get into the habit of filling out even just the third template before buying, four out of the five types will disappear. Here again, the "information products are gross" and "LINE induction is suspicious" crowd will emerge. I understand what you want to say because there are indeed idiots doing bad things. Just recently, someone who forced people to join a school costing millions of yen even by making them take out credit was flamed. That is truly garbage. But using that as a reason to lump everything together as "suspicious" is just a suspension of thought. Cram schools, prep schools, and English conversation schools are all fine information products. Even if their child fails their first choice, people don't sue the prep school for fraud. Yet when it comes to information about money, everything suddenly becomes "fraud" collectively. Please judge with your own head based on the content and the track record of the sender. If you can't do that, you'll get caught in scams and you won't be able to choose stocks either.
By the way, despite saying all this, my blog and articles are also open for free www
First, read and confirm with your own eyes. The steps to receive are these three:
1. Join my Open Chat (
)
↓
2. Register for the official LINE from the announcement section in the Open Chat (you can also read all the detailed articles on reselling in the rich menu)
↓
3. Send "Tofu Mental" to the official LINE
With this, the secret report will arrive automatically.
■ 7. Finally
To everyone who read this far, thank you very much. I'll summarize what I wanted to convey today.
・There are 5 types that die instantly in investing: Weathercock, Dream Chaser, Pickle, Hunch-damental, Tofu Mental.
↓
・The 5 look separate but are all connected. They rotate in the order of Tofu → Pickle → Hunch-damental → Dream Chaser.
↓
・The entrance is always the impatience of "having to make it back in one go."
↓
・The true identity of impatience is thin seed money and not having decided anything before buying.
↓
・Therefore, there are two prescriptions: Fill in the 4 blanks before buying. And thicken the seed money itself.
There are no absolutes in the market. The classification of the 5 types written here and the way to face unrealized losses are just one of my opinions. I haven't said a single thing about buying or selling specific stocks, and the final judgment is always self-responsibility. That being said, I'll state my stance clearly. I believe you should go for the thickness of the account before the technique of hitting the mark on stocks. Because a thick account will settle your judgment just by itself. I truly hope that you are on the side that can laugh and pick up things that have come out cheap, rather than the side that continues to push too hard with a thin account and makes fake smiles in front of your family. I'd be happy if this thinking reaches dads and moms in the middle of child-rearing in particular. The PDF can be received by the steps in Section 6, so please be sure to receive it and look through it!
Receive the report from the announcement here ([https://noirstock.com/open](https://noirstock.com/open)).
**
The keyword is "Tofu Mental".
Thank you for reading to the end! Please also read this! I've posted my crappy career history.
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2054892774508666997
References
・Barber, B. M., Lee, Y.-T., Liu, Y.-J., Odean, T., & Zhang, K. (2017) "Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?" Working Paper (All transactions on the Taiwan Stock Exchange 1992-2006. Survival rate of individuals who traded for 10 days or more was 44% after 1 year, 24% after 2 years, and 15% after 3 years. Over 75% left within 2 years)
・Chague, F., De-Losso, R., & Giovannetti, B. (2020) "Day Trading for a Living?" University of São Paulo Working Paper (Among individuals who started Brazil stock index futures in 2013-2015 and continued for 300 days or more, 97% lost money. Only 0.4% exceeded the salary level of a bank teller)
・Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2008) "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors" The Review of Financial Studies, 21(2), 785-818. (Individual investors tend to be net buyers of stocks in the news, stocks with abnormally high volume, and stocks that moved extremely in one day)
・Odean, T. (1998) "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?" The Journal of Finance, 53(5), 1775-1798. (10,000 accounts of a US discount brokerage over 7 years 1987-1993. While the ratio of selling stocks with unrealized gains was 57% on average, the ratio of selling stocks with unrealized losses was 36%. Winning stocks sold outperformed losing stocks kept by 3.4% over the following year)
・Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2000) "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors" The Journal of Finance, 55(2), 773-806. (66,465 US households over 6 years 1991-1996. While the annual return of the layer that traded the most was 11.4%, the market was 17.9% and the average household was 16.4%)
・Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk" Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. (People evaluate losses more heavily than gains of the same size. Theoretical foundation for loss aversion and reference point dependence)
・Japan Securities Dealers Association (September 2025) "Survey Report on Individual Investors' Attitudes Toward Securities Investment" (Survey conducted April 15-19, 2025, internet survey of 5,000 securities holders aged 18 and over. Reasons for selling in 2024 were "To lock in profits" 74.9%, "To cut losses" 27.9%. Trading profit/loss in 2024 was "Trading profit occurred" 43.0%, "Trading loss occurred" 9.0%)
・Financial Services Agency (September 2025) "Survey Results on the Utilization Status of NISA Accounts" (Number of NISA accounts was 26.96 million at the end of June 2025, cumulative purchase amount 63 trillion yen)
https://x.com/noirinvestor/status/2069727256814252463
