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\ ~Kobe Shimbun Hai~ Predictions //\
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◎10 Kafji Elementar
○1 Lobchen
▲3 Go Lucky
☆9 Green Energy
△2.4.6.7.11
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<< Race Analysis >>
The Hanshin Turf 2400m course for the Kobe Shimbun Hai is a long-distance race that circles the outer track from in front of the main stand. In the early stages, horses tend to prioritize maintaining their rhythm, and the pace often settles down until the backstretch. From the third corner, there is a gentle downhill slope, followed by a final straight of 473.6m with a steep incline. If you use up your speed too early, you won't be able to hold on to the lead. This race requires not only acceleration power in the straight but also the endurance to maintain speed over a long distance and the stamina to complete 2400m. This time, the distinction between front-runners and closers is clear, and I judge that the timing of the move will determine the winner.
◎10 Kafji Elementar secured second place in his previous race, the Kumano Special, and caught the leader in the straight to win the 2200m turf race in 2:12.0. He carried through without forcing himself during the race, moving early and maintaining his speed until the end, which directly applies to this 2400m distance. Two races ago, in the Kinosaki Special, he chased from second place and pulled away to win comfortably by more than one length. Although he finished 9th in the Kyoto Shimbun Hai because he couldn't get into the flow at the back, he charged up to 3rd place in the Mainichi Hai despite a poor start, showing he has the ability against graded stakes opponents. In his last two races, his front-running ability and late-stage speed have clicked, and his running form has improved compared to spring. Even with the distance extension, if he can maintain his own rhythm, he is expected to contend for the win.
○1 Lobchen raced from behind the middle group in his previous race, the Japanese Derby, and passed through the pack in the straight to win by closing speed. He maintained his composure from the first half and extended to the finish line even over 2400m, which is highly commendable. In the Satsuki Sho, he took the lead and held off challengers to finish 1st. His greatest strength is his versatility; he can produce results whether he sets the pace himself or sits back to utilize his closing speed. Although he finished 3rd in the Keio Hai Spring Cup, he tied with the winner's time, demonstrating high ability even in defeat. He has finished within the top 3 in all five starts since his debut and hasn't collapsed significantly, so there are few concerns about adapting to the Hanshin outer course. Even after a break, if he advances calmly through the middle stages and secures a path in the straight, he is predicted to show sharp acceleration again.
▲3 Go Lucky took the lead in his previous race, the Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy, and ran away with it by 2.5 lengths, keeping followers at bay. He ran the entire 2000m turf race at the same rhythm, extending the distance to draw out his endurance, which is significant. Two races ago, in the New Zealand Trophy, he chased from a good position but used up his speed in the fast mile pace and failed to extend in the straight, finishing 6th. However, being only 0.7 seconds behind the winner means his rating shouldn't be lowered significantly. He won his debut race over 1800m and his next win-class race over 1600m, achieving three wins across different distances and running styles. This time adds another 400m, but if he can catch his breath during the race, he can handle it. If he leads at his own pace and saves speed for the straight, he won't stop easily.
☆9 Green Energy had a slow start in his previous race, the Japanese Derby, resulting in a 16th-place finish from the rear. He couldn't take his planned position early on and lacked extension in the straight, but it is premature to judge his ability based solely on this race. Two races ago, in the Satsuki Sho, he raced from the rear, moved up positions after the third corner, and finished 7th, only 0.5 seconds behind the winner. He used his speed until the end in the straight, which is commendable considering the opposition. In the Keisei Hai, he waited at the rear, used his speed over a long stretch, and closed to win his first graded stakes. In his maiden race, he won by 5 lengths from a good position, and his ability to change positions according to the race development is also a strength. If he breaks well and chases without forcing himself, he can demonstrate his inherent closing speed on Hanshin's long straight.
🔻Betting Picks🔻
【Win】
10
【Trifecta】
10→1→3.7.9 (2-horse axis multi)
【Trifecta Box/Combination】
10→1→2.4.6.11 (2-horse axis nagashi)
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