🔻Full Field Diagnosis (Evaluation List)🔻
*Betting picks are listed below⇩
〜Detailed Evaluation of All 16 Horses〜
【S Evaluation】 13 Marukan Lani
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This horse shows the largest "gap between popularity and buying value" among the current members. In the Urawa Kinen, where it faced top-tier JRA and exchange race competition, the field was simply too strong; it's dangerous to lower its evaluation based on that result alone. Rather, returning to its home track at Ohi significantly improves the conditions. It has 2 wins in 2 starts at Ohi 2000m. Both performances were excellent, showing the ability to maintain its own rhythm without being rushed and using its legs effectively until the end. With several horses wanting to go forward this time, the pace is unlikely to settle too much, creating a situation where this horse's closing speed can reach. While I won't say it's the absolute strongest in terms of raw power, there is plenty of reason to target it at these odds.
【S Evaluation】 14 Nansei White
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Based on ability comparison alone, it wouldn't be surprising if this horse were more popular. Its 3rd place in the Brilliant Cup was a good performance, showing persistence until the end in a flow that was difficult for front-runners. Even in the Tokyo Daishoten against much stronger opponents, it didn't collapse, giving the impression it can compete steadily in local middle-distance races. The ability to maneuver in a good position while watching the front-runners is very attractive. Since it's not the type to stay extremely far back, the common Ohi 2000m issue of "failing to reach" is unlikely. Because its record isn't flashy, it tends not to sell well, but that's exactly the type of horse you want to pick up for betting. High evaluation including the balance with popularity.
【A Evaluation】 2 Deep Reborn
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Considering what it has shown in exchange graded races, it's well worth buying at this popularity level. Its 2nd in the Hakusan Daishoten and 3rd in the Mercury Cup cannot be dismissed as just a matter of the competition; the horse is well-suited for demonstrating endurance on long dirt tracks. The previous Brilliant Cup was disappointing, but it seemed to lose its finish after using its legs to keep up with the busy 1800m pace. Moving to 2000m where it can carry itself with more leeway is a positive factor. Drawing an inside gate is also a big plus for efficient maneuvering. While it might need one more push to win outright, the probability of it hitting the board is higher than its popularity suggests. This is a type you definitely want to include.
【A Evaluation】 6 Rebake Full City
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In terms of pure ability, it's naturally at the top. The Brilliant Cup was a very strong performance, and the style of advancing early and pushing through should work among these members. However, it's likely to carry a lot of popularity this time, so I want to look at it calmly in terms of value. It finished 5th in last year's Ohi Kinen; while 2000m isn't impossible, I can't say it's its best distance. With fast horses in front, the timing of its move might force it to use its legs early. Still, its recent performances should be evaluated honestly, and it's hard to imagine a major collapse. I'll place it at A instead of S due to expected value, but there's no reason to leave it out of your tickets.
【A Evaluation】 15 Saint Honore
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A difficult horse to handle depending on the odds, but the strength of being able to run near the front is a huge advantage under these conditions. In the Brilliant Cup, although it was overtaken by the winner, its performance of running its own race and sticking it out until the end was commendable. With Santex and Sayono Neichiya also wanting to go forward, it's unclear if it will get a solo lead. Still, Jockey Yano is likely to bring it into a good position without forcing a duel. Whether it can hold on for 2000m is the key point, but based on its local middle-distance record, there's no need for extreme concern. Considering the balance of ability, positioning, and odds, it's an easy addition to betting slips.
【A Evaluation】 10 Knight of Fire
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This horse also tends to be overlooked relative to its popularity. Its experience running against strong exchange race opponents will be useful here. 2nd in the Tokai Oka Sho and 4th in the Diolite Kinen are not bad considering the competition, and its appeal lies in not collapsing even in tough conditions. Its Ohi 2000m record isn't prominent, but those races were against very dense competition, so judging by numbers alone is dangerous. If the front pace flows to some extent and closing speed reaches, it has a chance. Since it doesn't get as much attention as the favorites, it's an interesting presence for ticket construction. It's a bit scary to treat it as just a minor filler.
【B Evaluation】 16 Dura Erede
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In terms of ability comparison, there's no doubt it's at the top. Based on its 2nd place in the Kawasaki Kinen, it wouldn't be strange for it to be pushed more strongly against this field. However, the view changes slightly when considering "buying value." While being able to go forward from an outside gate isn't bad, it's the type that tends to be over-bet when carrying high popularity. Ohi 2000m requires cleverness, and if it's forced to run wide the whole time, there are scenarios where raw power alone won't suffice. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if it wins, but when asked "do I really want to buy at these odds?" I hesitate. Ability evaluation and expected value evaluation are different things. In that sense, I'll place it at B.
【B Evaluation】 9 Suleiman
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Looking only at its performance after moving to local racing, it cannot be underestimated. It won the Hochi All-Star Cup decisively by leading and pushing through. That racing style suggests it can compete well in local middle-distance. However, the big loss in the Urawa Kinen tends to leave a bad impression, which might create value depending on the odds. If Jockey Mikamoto can get it into the flow, a comeback is possible. But with several horses wanting the lead, it's uncertain if it can easily create its own pace. While its ability is closer to A, I want to be cautious regarding the development. I want to keep it in the tickets, but it's hard to go in with pure confidence.
【B Evaluation】 3 Mick Fire
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A horse that sells well based on name alone. Its achievements are certainly not inferior here, but looking calmly at recent performances, it hasn't returned to the power of its prime. In the Brilliant Cup, it ran in a good position but couldn't find the extra gear to reach the winning battle. While its extensive Ohi 2000m experience is attractive, it's dangerous to stack up buying reasons based on that alone. That said, it's scary to cut it completely. There's a possibility of a turnaround given its course familiarity, maneuvering, and the jockey. If the popularity drops moderately, it's worth including, but if it's over-popular, it's a type to avoid over-investing in.
【B Evaluation】 11 Sayono Neichiya
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Its Ohi 2000m record alone is quite attractive. The results it has accumulated in local middle-distance are commendable, and the conditions themselves suit it. However, it has struggled recently as the competition strengthened, and the fade in the previous Brilliant Cup is concerning. Although the weight burden will be lighter this time, an easy lead won't be simple given the positioning of Saint Honore and Santex. It has tenacity if it can run in its own rhythm, but with this lineup, it might struggle in the final stages. If the popularity drops, it's an interesting candidate for inclusion, but it's hard to commit to it as a top pick.
【B Evaluation】 12 Dateno Shogun
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A horse that is difficult to evaluate. Based on its performance when younger, it could be handled higher, but it hasn't quite exploded in recent graded races. If it races from the back, there's a danger of failing to reach at Ohi 2000m, making positioning a major theme. If the popularity doesn't rise that much, there's value, but there's a lack of material to trust its ability outright. Still, it's a type you shouldn't overlook, as it has the power to suddenly jump up in rank if the development fits. The evaluation is B, but there's room to pick it up depending on how you build your tickets.
【C Evaluation】 1 Bahardar
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It has a record of fighting decent opponents during its JRA days, but looking at recent performances, there's little material to push it up. It showed nothing from the back in the Tokyo Daishoten, and the margin of defeat in the Kandagawa Open was large. While the inside gate looks like it allows for efficient running, for this horse's style, there's a risk of being boxed in and losing the timing to move. If the front collapses and it becomes a closing contest, it might have a small role, but it's hard to imagine it jumping into the top battle based on recent form. Only worth a thought as a massive longshot for trifectas if the odds are huge.
【C Evaluation】 4 Royal Pegasus
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Recently, it has focused on leading and sticking it out around 1400m. This time it faces a sudden distance increase plus significantly stronger opponents. With multiple horses wanting the lead, it won't be easy to create its own rhythm. Although it won the April Sho, the competition was completely different. It looks very tough for it to keep its legs until the end. While one might want to aim for a longshot, it's hard to buy strongly when considering expected value. This time, the evaluation is toward passing.
【C Evaluation】 5 Hades Keeper
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If you only look at the 4th in the Katsushima Okan, it seems to be competing, but subsequent performances have been lacking. It struggled in the final stages of the Brilliant Cup and failed to make a big impact in the Kandagawa Open. While it has Ohi 2000m experience, it's difficult to say it has enough factors to suddenly break into the top against this field. It might have a chance in a special scenario where the pace completely collapses and closers take over, but this isn't a race to buy expecting that. Evaluation is low.
【C Evaluation】 7 Santex
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It had a period of leaving results in local graded races, but these conditions are not easy. First, it's coming off a layoff. Furthermore, after the big loss in the previous race, it's hard to judge its condition. Leading is ideal, but with Saint Honore and Sayono Neichiya present, the battle for position will be troublesome. Forcing the lead makes the final stages difficult, and holding back diminishes its strengths. If the popularity drops extremely, you might pick it up for fun, but it's not the type to buy heavily for a head-to-head fight. Watching this time.
【C Evaluation】 8 Excess Return
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A type suited for races where it uses its legs gradually over long distances; its performances in the Tokyo Kinen and Kinpai Trial weren't bad. However, this is 2000m. The required aptitude is slightly different from a 2600m flow. There's a danger of being left behind when the mid-race pursuit gets busy, and even if it closes the gap from there, it's very possible it won't reach. I don't intend to completely deny its ability, but it's hard to imagine actively buying it under these conditions. Rather than jumping at the odds, I want to prioritize the fit with the conditions.
🎖️【Graded Race】~Ohi Kinen~🎖️
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🔹Picks List🔹
◎ 13 Marukan Lani
○ 15 Saint Honore
▲ 6 Rebake Full City
☆ 14 Nansei White
△ 2, 3, 9, 10, 16
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🔻Betting Picks🔻
【Win】
13
【Trifecta】
13 → 6, 14, 15 (1-horse axis multi)
【Trio】
13 → 6, 14, 15 → 2, 3, 6, 9, 10, 14, 15, 16 (Formation)
【Wide】
13 → 14
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