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◎15. Forte Angelo
Although it finished 5th in the previous Satsuki Sho, the performance was stronger than the finishing order suggests.
In that race, Robchen led and Realize Sirius followed in second, resulting in a race where the front-runners stayed ahead. The lap times were 58.9-57.6 (back-loaded), and since the winner finished in record time, it was physically difficult to come from behind on the outside. In that context, this horse started late and was around 17th place, and still 13th at the fourth corner. Normally, a horse would finish outside the top five in such a situation, but it used a 33.4-second final sprint from the inside to climb to 5th. This wasn't a 5th place gifted by the race flow, but one achieved by raw ability despite a disadvantageous flow, so there is no need to lower its evaluation.
Two races ago in the Hopeful S, it carried well from a good position and overtook Ask Edinburgh in the final stretch to briefly put itself in a winning position. It was eventually passed by Robchen from the outside, but it was only 0.1 seconds behind the winner, showing it doesn't crumble when running a standard tactical race from a good position in a G1. This suggests it isn't just a one-dimensional closer; if it gets a good start, it can race from the middle or front of the pack.
In the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu, it also finished 2nd at Tokyo Turf 2000m with a 32.8-second final sprint from 3rd position, already showing the foundation to use a fast closing speed on Tokyo's long straight.
The distance extension to Tokyo Turf 2400m is a plus. In the Satsuki Sho at Nakayama 2000m, starting late and losing position limits how early you can move from the 3rd corner, but at Tokyo 2400m, the field settles more easily after the start, and the long straight makes it easier to choose where to use your kick. Furthermore, pedigree-wise, offspring of Fierement have an excellent 42.3% success rate at distances of 2100m or more. Rather than a busy 2000m race, a 2400m race where the horse can settle and sustain its closing speed suits it better.
〇17. Robchen
There is no absolute need to lead this time; it can race from the second position behind Realize Sirius or Congestus. This is its first 2400m, but having won two 2000m G1s, the foundation of its endurance is clear. It's not the type to lose its cool, and as long as it doesn't fight for the lead too hard in the first half, it can handle the distance. What matters in the Derby is how much reserve energy you can keep while staying near the front before the final straight. This horse can do that.
It's hard to bet against even as a favorite. If the Satsuki Sho is seen as a win due to race flow, it actually makes it easier to buy. Its ability, maturity, flexibility, and winning power are all high.
▲12. Ask Edinburgh
The switch to Tokyo 2400m is not bad. It couldn't quite stretch enough in the 1600m Saudi RC, but its performance has improved significantly since increasing the distance. Since it can improve its position from the critical point of the race, it's not a horse that just waits on the long Tokyo straight. If it carries from a good to middle position and gets the leaders in its sights at the entrance of the straight, it will be among the top finishers again.
To win outright, it needs a sharper finishing kick than Robchen or Reichsadler, but a podium finish is very realistic. It doesn't attract much popularity due to a lack of flashy wins, but its stable performance in G1s and graded stakes is top-tier among this field. The horse's ability is at a level where it could be a core pick, but considering the jockey's injury, I'll keep it at the ▲ rank.
△1. Reichsadler
This is not just a closer; it's a horse that can run near the front if it starts normally. It ended up in the middle of the pack in the Satsuki Sho due to a late start, but if the 2400m makes the pursuit easier, it can take a better position. Its stride-based running style makes the switch to Tokyo a clear plus. If a horse that closed in on a front-runner-friendly Nakayama track can extend its legs further at Tokyo, a reversal is possible.
The only issue is the start. If it starts late again and falls too far back, it won't catch the leaders. However, it still managed 3rd place from that position in the Satsuki Sho. If it starts normally and takes a middle position, the gap with Robchen will close significantly.
〇17 ▲12 △1
🔥 Betting Lines 🔥
① Win: 15
② Quinella (3 points):
15-1, 12, 17
③ Trio (24 points):
15-1, 12, 17-1, 5, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 18
