Today at 11:41 AM JST, Elon Musk announced a change.
Elon Musk's post below:
You probably won't understand the above even if you read it, so I will explain based on my experience consulting for 1,000 companies on X operations.
Note: I have M&A'd my business created on X for 304 million yen.
The key points are:
① We can now measure post view time more accurately
→ This means posts with longer view times (read thoroughly) will be boosted.
② The concept of "Full View" has been added
→ Posts read to the end receive bonus points.
This aligns with the algorithm predictions I've been making for three years, and I can foresee future trends.
Let me explain more specifically.
Regarding ①, there are two main discussion points.
First is the concern that X Articles might become harder to grow.
Since around December last year, X Articles entered a period where they grew exceptionally well. Gradually, this was corrected, and the power balance between articles and regular posts has recently stabilized.
Note: The momentum of articles has gradually weakened, while regular posts have become slightly stronger.
This is natural because articles are long. While the probability of being read to the end decreases with length, it is easier to accumulate dwell time (view time), which offers an advantage in that regard.
However, some might think that because it is harder to achieve high "Full View Rates," articles will struggle to grow. I will address this counter-argument later.
Conclusion: Articles will not suddenly stop growing.
Second point regarding ①:
• Is view time for short-text posts really measurable?
Please look at the image below.
In the X timeline, multiple posts appear on one screen simultaneously, not just one.
→ Therefore, it is difficult to accurately determine which post the user is viewing.
For example, with TikTok or other short videos, one video appears per scroll, making view time measurement easy.
If we are measuring Full View Rate (completion rate), it is extremely difficult for short-text posts.
Note: It is hard for the algorithm to distinguish whether a post was simply scrolled past or read thoroughly to the end.
→ With TikTok-style short videos, this is easily measured because each video is displayed individually.
The patterns where the algorithm can easily measure this are:
• Posts with images or videos that are tapped/clicked
• Long-text posts where "Show more" is clicked
• Articles
These three patterns above are why they tend to grow, and this trend will likely continue.
Naturally, "earning view time" in these three patterns will be evaluated more heavily.
Also, although Elon Musk stated "we can now measure view time more accurately," I do not believe he suddenly became able to accurately measure "view time and completion rates for short-text posts" as described earlier.
Therefore, it is unlikely that view time and completion rates for short-text posts will suddenly become prioritized.
→ My prediction is that growth will remain largely unchanged from the traditional trend, relying on quote-retweets.
Exception: Short-text posts with images or videos that are tapped are easier to measure.
Now, let's discuss ② "Full View Rate (Completion Rate)."
A similar flow occurred on TikTok.
I also achieved 100k followers in 10 days on TikTok. The phrase I devised, "Share to open LINE... person #X likes you," became a social phenomenon and was selected for a Mynavi Award.
Back to the topic.
The concept of Full View Rate (Completion Rate) was mentioned by Elon Musk, and a similar movement happened previously on TikTok.
At that time, the metric "Full View Rate" was suddenly added to TikTok Analytics, sparking various discussions and tests.
The first idea people propose is:
"If Full View Rate is valued, shouldn't shorter posts be advantageous?"
This is a fallacy. That is not the case.
Full View Rate is merely a benchmark like:
"For this length, you should have at least this much full view rate."
In essence:
Short post with 50% full view rate
Long post with 50% full view rate
The latter is obviously evaluated higher. That is how it works.
The argument that:
Full View Rate concept added → Shorter posts get full views easier → Shorter posts grow better
is a fallacy, so please do not misunderstand.
There is a slight possibility that short-text posts (without images/videos) may become easier to grow than before, but this is simply correcting previous unfair evaluations. It does not fundamentally mean "Short text = Easy to grow."
This is how I interpret the algorithm. As repeated, this flow only follows what I have been saying for three years.
The essence of the algorithm is ensuring the platform remains something users want to use healthily. You can predict this from Elon Musk's philosophy.
I hit the mark recently too.
I am not just someone who catches up with algorithms. That is trivial.
My X consulting service has produced many results recently.
On YouTube, I started posting interviews with successful clients, but the stockpile of unposted content is piling up.
Undoubtedly, things are buzzing more than ever right now.
See details here:
https://lp-x-komon.vercel.app/
Finally,
I put quite a bit of effort into publishing this X Article after a long time, so I would appreciate a quote-retweet.
My X analysis and track record are undoubtedly the industry's largest, recognized as No. 1 by myself and others. You will see this clearly if you check the details above.
Self-promotion ends here. Thank you!
