What is the Nakayama Turf 2200m where the All Comer is held?
There is a steep slope after the start, and due to the short straight and downhill gradient at the third corner, it tends to become a long-spurt race where horses make their move early.
Therefore, the second steep climb awaits, making early movement combined with sustained power plus stamina/power to handle slopes more important than simple burst speed. We should favor horses that accelerate from the 3rd-4th corners and sustain their pace until the finish, rather than those who rely on closing in the final straight.
Looking at the past 10 years of results for the All Comer, Group I runners have won 6 times, indicating high reliability for favorites despite the tricky course layout. However, as known, the track condition is expected to be very bad due to the typhoon on Sunday.
This year, we should heavily evaluate suitability for heavy tracks rather than the usual "class" of the horse.
[Nakayama R11]
◎ 6. Panja <U score 102>
〇 9. Cosmo Curanda <U score 98>
▲ 13. June Take <U score 88>
☆ 1. Can't Wait <U score 83>
△ 3.7.12
Panja has 3 wins at Nakayama (excluding his maiden win at Hakodate). As a Gold Ship offspring who struggles in top-speed battles at Tokyo or Hanshin, he prefers stages with slow finishes and is a "heavy-track tank" type.
His previous win in the Sunshine S (3-win class) was a strong performance where he closed through a narrow pack despite carrying top weight and being pushed back mid-race. Considering this was a race background suited for burst speed—which is normally unfavorable for Panja—his victory was quite impressive.
At age 3, he raced against Cosmo Curanda in the St. Lite Kinen over the same Nakayama turf 2200m distance. The gap wasn't discouraging; given that Cosmo Curanda is a Deep Impact line horse who finished 2nd in the Satsuki Sho and already weighed 500kg with a mature body, while Panja is a late-maturing Stay Gold line horse who has developed a more muscular physique since then, it's not surprising if the ability gap has closed.
Of course, Cosmo Curanda, who performed well in the Takarazuka Kinen and Arima Kinen where heavy tracks and sustained power were required, is highly rated. However, since he is clearly a specialist for heavy tracks and matches the conditions perfectly, we rate him as an opponent rather than a value pick based on odds.
