If Bitcoin closes Sunday, August 23rd, over $74,200, it will mark the largest weekly gain in dollar terms in Bitcoin's history.
The Bitcoin 4-hour RSI just hit its highest level in history.
And Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin.
Mike McGlone quickly went on Bloomberg to dismiss all of this as just a short squeeze and say that he wanted to be on the record calling Bitcoin a "horrible asset...This is just a bounce within the purge...It's all hopium."
Respectfully, I think Mike is wrong about this.
This isn't just a short squeeze. It's a signal of what happens next.
How did we get here? What does it mean? What happens next?
Let's back up.
Pivot to Crypto
https://x.com/Jason/status/1666874821077250048
On July 8th, 2026, Jeff Park, @dgt10011 posted, "If you're in AI, pivot to crypto."
https://x.com/dgt10011/status/2074985539602723129
I don't know who first started saying this, but when I saw this post from Jeff, it resonated with me. I wrote up a research note about it for the Milk Road Pro community and started saying it on my Monday episodes on the @milkroaddaily podcast.
On August 17th, I retweeted a post about Stanley Druckenmiller selling memory stocks to buy (former) Bitcoin miners and said, "If you're in AI, pivot to crypto." I had tweeted this before, but this time, it took off.
https://x.com/BitcoinJesusETH/status/2089529365251973248
https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/2089374442241540583
It got over 100K views, but tons of comments were about how this was still an AI bet by Druckenmiller.
These people were completely missing the signal.
Don't Get Cute
On August 3rd, I interviewed Jan van Eck @JanvanEck3 on the Milk Road Stocks @milkroadstocks YouTube channel.
https://x.com/milkroaddaily/status/2086830725391847928
https://x.com/milkroaddaily/status/2072787155433521247
I asked Jan how he thought about Bitcoin's role in the portfolio. He said that the only disagreement at @vaneck_us was about whether they should accumulate now or wait until Q4.
Jan said he told his team, "don't get cute." In other words, get the bitcoin now.
When I interviewed @matthew_sigel, Head of Crypto Research at VanEck, he said he was expecting lower prices. He also said he was accumulating.
"Bitcoin's my largest position in the strategy...We did add a little bit on the Leo Day so definitely exposed there."
The message was very clear. They were already long Bitcoin, and accumulating actively.
Matthew also posted this on August 18th, indicating a belief that the market had already capitulated on Bitcoin, just before the short squeeze.
https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/2089744168687960463
https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/2089743548144861452
But VanEck isn't the only smart investor accumulating crypto.
Paul Tudor Jones disclosed he'd also increased his Bitcoin exposure.
The 13F filing for Tudor Investment showed that as of June 30, 2026, the firm had raised its direct holdings in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) by 18.9% (adding about 109,446 shares) to 688,529 shares, valued at roughly $22.9 million.
Citigroup, which has nearly $3T in total assets, announced they were launching Bitcoin custody services before the end of the year.
Jim Cramer said in early August that he was "selling all his Bitcoin." Another clear signal from one of the all-time best counter-indicators that it was time to buy crypto with conviction.
Again, the message was clear. The smart money was already in position. They weren't waiting. They weren't sidelined like the retail degens chasing leveraged bets on AI. They had already started buying crypto throughout the summer.
Then the Clarity Act was delayed (again)
Postponed
Next, on August 7th, Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the Senate would not vote on The Clarity Act before the August recess.
He set a vote for September 15th.
The @SECGov sprang into action, calling an open meeting for that Friday, August, 14th, to move forward on regulatory clarity for the crypto industry with or without an act of Congress.
However, that meeting was cancelled when @realDonaldTrump announced he would hold his own meeting with leaders of the digital assets industry in the White House.
The whole crypto market was sort of left hanging in limbo.
Then, the GOAT entered the chat.
Buyback Bessent
On Wednesday, August 19th, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Treasury Department would at least double the size of its liquidity support buyback program for 10- to-30 year bonds to a minimum of $4B between September 9th and November 4th.
In following interviews, Scott said that the buybacks, "could be more than the $4B per issue."
This signaled to the market that the Treasury was willing to shorten the duration of its outstanding debt. A move which signaled a weakening dollar, and a supportive posture for debt markets.
Michael Howell @crossbordercap summarized this on a podcast very well. "What the US authorities are prepared to do is essentially print money."
Not exactly, but essentially. And essentially is what matters.
Gold ripped about $200 higher.
Bitcoin screamed.
Asymmetric Information
This is the first time that Bessent has tipped his hand so clearly. It dovetails nicely with Kevin Warsh's leadership at the Federal Reserve. Their plans are finally coming into focus.
The Fed has held rates constant, and Warsh's task forces will completely change the Fed's reaction function for monetary policy in a way that allows them to avoid rate hikes and, eventually, work their way towards a rate cut.
If achieved, this would mean increased liquidity and lower borrowing costs.
In other words, the US government is going to run the economy hot, and capital markets and risk assets are going higher for longer.
If you don't think this is possible, that's fine. But it's important to remember who you're trading against. Scott Bessent is the Michael Jordan of macro.
This man who lives in a pink house in South Carolina broke the Bank of England, allegedly gave Elon Musk a black eye during a fight at the White House, and once, when President Trump jokingly asked at a press conference if the whole market was smarter than him, Bessent surprised Trump by saying very seriously, "No, sir, Mr. President."
Investors used to say, "Don't fight the Fed." Now, the advice I would give is, "Don't fight, Scott."
"HYPER-LIQUID"
Then the sitting President of the United States stepped up to a microphone in the White House and said two words.
"HYPER-LIQUID."
The face you make when you're long af and had the boss shill your bags
As of June 30th, 2026, Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office held a ~$23M position in Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. (ticker: PURR).
Druck hasn't had a down year in thirty years in the market. He got exposure to HYPE right before the President said "hyper-liquid" on live television in the White House. And X comments are still telling me that Druck is still only betting on AI.
Do you understand?
Blitzkrieg
The one-two punch of Bessent weakening the dollar while Trump pumped crypto hit the order books like a Mike Tyson haymaker.
The cascading short liquidations were the highest on record before things even got going. The market cap of the whole crypto industry jumped about 10% almost instantly.
And that was just the opening shot.
https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/2090141329229578519
It kept going.
https://x.com/AshCrypto/status/2090477026780004838
And then it finally stopped...
I'm just kidding, it kept going again.
https://x.com/cryptorover/status/2090672679271518296
72 hours of the most violent price appreciation in the history of the digital asset markets.
Lightning war. Blitzkrieg.
The Four-Year Cycle
Although it's still far too soon to tell, if this low on Bitcoin holds, then the four-year cycle theory is finished.
This would mean the cycle low was in May, not October. However, the May low was really a re-test. A sweep of the prior low that came in February.
This would be a big change from the past market cycles and would imply that there are different dynamics and market factors driving the valuations on Bitcoin and crypto.
A sign that the asset class is maturing. I'm not saying this is for sure yet, but it's something important and fascinating to watch.
Spot Flows
Those dismissing this as just a short squeeze are overconfident. It's too soon to tell for sure if this is a sustainable bull trend or not. I acknowledge that it may not hold, even though it doesn't matter to me in the long term.
But for now, spot volume is coming in with conviction to support the move.
https://x.com/AshCrypto/status/2091089243808403914
https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2091138635949105166
https://x.com/AltcoinDaily/status/2091204312907321668
Bitcoin made it to just over $79,000 before the first leverage flush cooled things down.
Ethereum outperformed. Because $ETH has been so hated and shorted for so long, it squeezed the hardest.
It went from just under $1900 to very nearly $2600.
This brings us to why I wanted to write this essay.
The interesting thing about Ethereum right now isn’t the price. It’s what’s happening underneath it. Most people will just come for the pumping prices and leave without understanding why.
That's what I want to talk about.
Because, just like the example with Stanley Druckenmiller and everyone telling me that it's dumb to pivot to crypto, the smart money has already figured this out. By the time the comments section understands what's really happening, it will be too late to get in position.
Project Crypto
The SEC and the CFTC Chairmen were both there with Trump to talk about their plans to move forward with regulations for the industry.
I won't detail these here, but you can review these or a summary of them. Both the SECand the CFTCare working on this with full focus.
Why?
Tokenization of US assets like equities, bonds, and dollars is now viewed as a matter of national security. The Trump administration wants to increase investment in US assets.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2090837045593649262
Made in America
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev wrote an article about this push towards tokenization.
https://x.com/vladtenev/status/2089813816611922368
"It's becoming increasingly clear that we are in the early innings of a global tokenization super cycle...Tokenization is the best path to modernizing the American financial system..."
https://x.com/AltcoinDaily/status/2090146895868076187
Tokenized assets are exploding in growth.
https://x.com/tokenterminal/status/2091147039149314419
a16z compiled some predictions on this by 2030.
"Looking ahead, forecasts for tokenized assets vary a lot, but they all point in the same direction: growth.
@McKinsey: $2–4T by 2030.
@ArkInvest: $11T by 2030.
@Ripple: $9.4T by 2030, $18.9T by 2033.
@StandardChartered: $30T + by 2034."
Franklin Templeton's Chris Perkins said the tokenized equity markets will go "from zero to $127 trillion" once liquidity arrives.
Recall that Scott "Face Punch" Bessent is the one providing the liquidity, and this weekend President Trump threatened to use the US military on the bond market if necessary.
Liquidity will be arriving.
Cloudflare
The internet belongs to AI now.
Cloudflare is a global web infrastructure and cybersecurity company. They sit between millions of websites and the public internet. They know how much AI traffic exists because they process roughly 20% of all web traffic globally. In doing so, they can inspect, categorize, and count billions of HTTP/HTTPS requests in real-time via their Cloudflare Radar platform
Cloudflare is pivoting to crypto.
https://x.com/coinbureau/status/2084744936604172525
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2086565692652879973
So, as we are moving all of the world's assets onchain, we are also transitioning economic activity from humans to AI agents.
It's not AI OR crypto. It's AI AND crypto. Both of these trends are accelerating, and they will be supportive of each other.
No one on Wall Street understands this better than Tom Lee, the man with the most $ETH on the planet.
Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer)
Tom is the Chairman of @BitMNR
Bitmine has bought Ethereum every single week for 59 consecutive weeks (about 14 straight months) since launching its ETH treasury strategy on June 30, 2025.
Do you think they're doing this because they're chasing a short squeeze?
"Don't get cute." Just get the $ETH.
On July 16th, Young Thomas published a YouTube video calling Ethereum the perfect asset for this new economic, financial, and monetary reality.
Tom frames Ethereum as the solution to the "Uncanny Valley of Wealth."
A term he coined to describe human anxiety over an economy run entirely by autonomous, agentic AI and machine-to-machine transactions. Lee argues that Ethereum serves as a reliable, neutral settlement layer that bridges human control with AI-driven financial growth.
Your homework assignment is to listen to Tom's presentation on this idea.
I know homework in summer is no fun, but it's time to go back to school, and this will be on the final exam.
This thread got overlooked due to all the attention on the pump, but this in my opinion, is more important than the price action.
https://x.com/fundstrat/status/2089749595911848415
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2089704797595111926
Tom spells out why Ethereum will be so important not just for AI, but also for robotics as all of these innovations converge on $ETH.
Ethereum is a Behemoth
Last week after the crypto blitz, I interviewed Lucas Tcheyan, VP of Research at Galaxy @glxyresearch @uptodatenow
Lucas said, "ETH is going to be a behemoth" and called the ETH/BTC ratio potentially one of the best trades in the market.
https://x.com/milkroaddaily/status/2090778538748088531
Lucas isn't the only one who thinks so.
https://x.com/CryptoKaleo/status/2090829030375219237
I'm not calling for this exactly, but I do expect $ETH to strengthen over time in this market.
I didn't arrive at this conclusion because I'm a moonboy. I arrived at it because Ethereum is maintaining market dominance in tokenization, stablecoins, and damn near everything else onchain.
https://x.com/milkroaddaily/status/2049473034940223584
https://x.com/tokenterminal/status/2089066971023512033
Again, just like Stanley Druckenmiller selling his Micron position, the smart money has already figured this out.
The Visser Pivot
I've been following Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs for several years now. Every time I see him, we talk for almost an hour because we have many similar interests and I really enjoy sparring with him.
He is one of the first macro analysts who comprehended why Bitcoin and Ethereum are so valuable. Other than @DTAPCAP, @RaoulGMI , and the wonderful team at @RealVision of course.
I have enjoyed watching Jordi come around on this. Jordi was buying $MU at $100 down to $60 long before anyone figured out why memory was going to be so important.
What's Jordi buying now?
https://x.com/milkroaddaily/status/2090981313440575789
@Jvisserlabs is pivoting to crypto.
According to Jordi, the ticker is $ETH.
This is not a pivot in the sense that Jordi is abandoning his thesis on AI. Rather, he recognizes that the final market expression of the AI thesis will be $ETH.
This does not mean that no other assets will do well. No one is saying that gold will suddenly be worthless or that AI stocks won't remain in a strong bull market.
It just means that $ETH is most likely to become the best asset from here on.
Ethereum is The Key Square
Before Scott Bessent was our bond market face-punching Treasury Secretary, he was a hedge fund manager.
He named his hedge fund Key Square Group. He explains in this interview (which is very much worth watching if you're an investor)
https://x.com/RealNickMugalli/status/2090454137888522283
https://x.com/RealNickMugalli/status/2090065469306757548
In endgame theory in chess, a key square is a specific square that an attacking king aims to occupy.
If a player successfully maneuvers their king onto a key square, they guarantee a theoretical victory.
Once a king secures a key square, factors like who has the turn to move, positional "opposition," or complex calculation no longer matter. The win is structurally secure. It simplifies highly technical, anxious calculations into a straightforward, predictable victory path.
You know, like for example, hypothetically, if winning global finance was as simple as just saying "buy $ETH" or something like that, for example, hypothetically, not financial advice.
The Root of Global Finance
On July 6th, I interviewed Joe Chalom @joechalom and Joe Lubin @ethereumJoseph about @Sharplink.
On July 23rd, I interviewed three of the five co-founders of a new Ethereum non-profit called Ethlabs @ethlabs
They said their goal was to make Ethereum "the root of global finance."
On August 6th, I interviewed three co-founders of another new non-profit called Ethereum Institutional @ethereuminsti
They said that Ethereum is finally playing to win.
I'm following this so closely not because I am an ETH maxi, but because if all of these people are even 15% right, this is the biggest trade in the history of capital markets.
Don't midcurve this.
https://x.com/Jason/status/2090952573281038786
WARTIME ETHEREUM
Easy mode is over.
It's time to lock in.
The boomers are coming.
The normies are coming.
Everyone is coming.
Maybe not today, but soon and for years.
It's not about a short squeeze. It's not about one cycle or two. It's not about whether or not this is a blow-off top. It's not about guessing which way the charts wiggle next. It's not about calling the bottom.
It's about moving your king to the key square and then refusing to budge.
There are four other analysts at Milk Road with portfolios. We have a bit of a friendly competition going. I don't like to brag about this because my investment strategy is not designed to outperform everyone else. It's designed to sit on the key square and wait. However, in one day, I outperformed all of them for the last week, month, three months, and six months.
Not because I outtraded or outsmarted them. Not because I used leverage. Not because I had better information or technology. But because I moved to the key square and sat down.
This Wartime Ethereum Blitzkrieg we've just seen is the beginning, not the end.
HODL.
Stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish.
See you on the key square.
