If you were to start a business today, which market would you choose?
One person answered this question instantly: "AI is the only choice."
That person is Takao Ozawa, the former President of Yahoo Japan, who launched PayPay and was involved in the founding of the Rakuten Eagles. He spoke about this in a video interview, and it resonated with me so much that I’ve summarized it here in my own way.
However, you might be thinking:
"Silicon Valley companies are already far ahead in AI. It's too late for Japan to start now."
The interviewer asked the same question. Mr. Ozawa's answer was: "I don't think so at all." He insists that even in Japan, AI is the only choice.
His reason is simple.
"This is exactly like when the internet first appeared."
The internet was born around 1993 or 1994. Mr. Ozawa himself started e-commerce in 1997, which was quite early at the time. Even so, companies like Rakuten and Yahoo grew later, and new internet companies are still popping up today.
His analogy about cars was also interesting.
The first cars were like horse-drawn carriages with steam engines. More than 100 years later, electric vehicles appeared, and industries like car navigation—which no one could have imagined back then—were born.
AI will change society to that extent. "For the next 20 to 30 years, the world will be thoroughly transformed by AI."
New businesses will be born in five years, and different ones in ten years.
That’s why it’s not too late to enter now.
However, there is one important clarification.
When he says "AI is the only choice," he doesn't mean you should build something like ChatGPT yourself. He isn't saying you have to become a platform provider.
Mr. Ozawa gave the unexpected example of a dumpling shop.
If you want to beat an existing dumpling shop, you use AI thoroughly behind the scenes in manufacturing and sales. By doing so, "your costs drop to one-tenth, allowing you to win instantly."
In other words, "[Industry] x AI."
The protagonist isn't AI; it's the "Industry."
In fact, when he went to a Japanese startup pitch event, every presenter was doing "Something x AI," such as Legal Procedures x AI or Vacant Properties x AI.
So, is it too late to enter when everyone else is already doing it?
Mr. Ozawa's answer was no. Technology evolves so quickly that the winning strategy of today changes by tomorrow. This makes it hard for early movers to maintain a permanent advantage.
However, there are two conditions.
First, you must test and implement new technology every single day.
Second, and more fundamentally, you must deeply understand the "Something" in "Something x AI."
The essence of a dumpling shop isn't using AI; it's making delicious dumplings.
After making delicious dumplings, you integrate AI into part of the process to lower costs. If your competitor offers a value of 100 and you offer 120, you win the game.
Reversing this logic reveals something interesting.
The biggest opportunity actually lies with companies that are already successful in their specific "Industry."
Mr. Ozawa emphasized: "A world is coming where existing business owners will grow like crazy by using AI effectively. People running large businesses need to realize this quickly."
The same thing happened with the internet. Securities firms that used it well survived, while those that didn't went bankrupt.
An investor present at the interview used hotel pricing as an example.
Even now, hotel prices are often decided subjectively by managers saying, "The place next door is 8,500 yen, so let's do 8,300 yen with a free drink." This is a world that can be drastically changed through AI systems.
Are there any "processes still done manually" in your industry?
That covers the market side. The second half was about something closer to us.
The theme was: "Business skills that ordinary people should hone."
Mr. Ozawa's answer was surprisingly humble:
"There is a reason for human behavior."
To avoid being a one-hit wonder in business, you need reproducibility. You want to succeed because you understand the reason, not just by luck.
Geniuses skip this process and just produce the right answer. But we ordinary people can develop the power to see the essence by constantly thinking about why people move the way they do.
The fact that this can be "trained" is a relief.
His specific example was excellent.
It was about when Mr. Ozawa started selling bento boxes online.
First, he closely observed the top 10 best-selling bentos in the online mall. He found that the shops weren't chosen because they had great marketing.
They were chosen because they had photos that looked incredibly delicious.
It's obvious, right? You can't taste things on the internet, so buyers have no choice but to pick what "looks delicious."
However, bento shops work incredibly hard on "making" delicious food. They don't put effort into "communicating" that on the internet.
So, Mr. Ozawa made delicious bentos, but he also took beautiful photos, gave the shop a high-end name, and even obsessed over the packaging.
He split his effort 50/50 between "making it delicious" and "making it look delicious."
When you work backward from the reasons for human behavior, your focus changes.
The ultimate application of this thinking was PayPay.
When they interviewed users before launching the service, 99% said, "This is a hassle, I won't use it."
By marketing common sense, the choice would be not to do it.
But Mr. Ozawa went to China and spent three days without carrying cash. He lived normally using only QR code payments, and by the time he returned, he didn't want to touch cash anymore.
He became convinced:
"People just don't know yet. They'll be fine once they use it five times."
So, he decided to get people to use it five times, no matter the cost. The famous 10-billion-yen giveaway campaign was based on this reading of human behavior.
His persuasion of employees who doubted if it would catch on was also based on behavioral reasons.
People keep cash in registers because they need change. Because there is cash, robbers come. Because there are coins, shoplifting happens. With cashless payments, evidence remains, making it harder to commit crimes.
He convinced his staff by saying, "We are creating a world without the need for change."
The survey said "I won't use it," but actual behavior showed "once they use it five times, they can't let go."
Look at the reasons for behavior, not people's words. This is how reproducibility is born.
I believe this can be used directly in our work.
Whether it's a document, a product page, or a proposal, we work hard on "creating" the content, but often fail to put effort into "showing it so it communicates" to the other person. Isn't that common?
Why does the reader choose that? If you work backward from the reason, your focus will change.
In summary, there are three lessons from this talk:
- AI is an internet-level change, and the world will continue to change for the next 20 to 30 years. It's not too late.
- The winner is "Industry x AI." The industry knowledge is the lead; those who polish the essence and then add AI will win.
- The weapon of the ordinary person is "human behavior has a reason." Observe the reasons for behavior, not just words.
What you can do tomorrow is also simple.
List your work processes and try putting AI into one "part that remains manual."
Also, find one reason why customers choose your product based on their actual behavior, not a survey.
I will also start by re-observing the "reasons why I am chosen" in my own content.
Delicious bento and delicious-looking photos. Which one is missing in your work?
