AI's High-Rated Rotation-Based "Race Level Comparison" is Key for This Graded Stakes
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To get straight to the point:
<Key Point> The race level of horses from the Haneda Cup and Tokyo Derby is not high.
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The reason is that for JRA horses to enter the Haneda Cup, they must go through trial races:
Kumotori Sho → Top 2 JRA horses finishing within 3rd place
Keihin Hai → Top 2 JRA horses finishing within 3rd place
Therefore, the Haneda Cup is not a race where the top 4 strongest 3-year-old dirt horses are selected from JRA, but rather a race where 4 horses are selected from JRA horses who aimed for the Dirt Triple Crown early on and used local exchange trials. Thus, the elite of the JRA 3-year-old dirt route do not necessarily gather until the first two legs of the Dirt Triple Crown.
For this Japan Dirt Classic, the JRA entry slots have been expanded to 7.
This creates a matchup between the winner of the Koribara Sho, the top 2 finishers of the Leopard S, and the winner of the UAE Derby against the trial race participants.
🏇 First, the Koribara Sho winner: Itterasshai
Realize Grint and Lock Tergan from the Haneda Cup/Tokyo Derby group ran in this race, but Itterasshai won by a large margin. Itterasshai's winning time was record-level, and he beat the second-place horse by a significant gap, showing monster-class performance. However, since there can be misses in JRA races if he doesn't lead smoothly, the battle for the lead with Finger (same running style) will be key.
🏇 Next, the UAE Derby winner: Wonder Dean
While winning an overseas race sounds impressive, Japanese horses have won this race 5 times in a row due to sand quality and the precocity typical of Japanese racing, making it inherently advantageous. Last year Forever Young won, but it's not uncommon for horses to struggle in graded stakes after winning the UAE Derby. In JRA, he narrowly lost to Lock Tergan and Pyromancer despite rough content, so his ability isn't clearly superior. However, since he finished ahead of the two horses from the same race in the program, odds profiling may work in his favor.
🔥 Here is the main pick: The Leopard S group - Pyromancer and Cheri Vent
AI rated the Leopard S group as having the highest H-level competition score.
In this race, Don Electus led but was overtaken by the above two horses and finished 4th ⇒ Won decisively in a Listed race against older horses last week.
The field included Heny Geist, Justin Earth, and Mapius (5th in Negishi S), making the member level comparable to a graded stakes race.
Shonan Banrai finished 6th ⇒ Won by 8 lengths in a 3-win class next start.
As a comparison, Realize Grint (3rd in Tokyo Derby) ran in this race and finished 6th, 2 seconds behind. Looking at these strength comparisons, they should be able to compete equally or better against the two-crown winners Finger and Itterasshai. Since both are temperamentally fragile without leading, we expect the Leopard S group to charge forward.
[Oiwa 11R] [S]
◎ 5. Cheri Vent <U Score 103>
〇 1. Pyromancer <U Score 101>
▲ 15. Itterasshai <U Score 92>
☆ 6. San Lazar <U Score 85>
△ 3, 10, 11
💻 Recommended Bets (Depending on Budget)
Win: ◎
Wide: ◎→〇▲
Trifecta (Box): 1st/2nd Flow Multi
◎〇→▲△☆ ◎▲→△☆
Trifecta (Box): 1st Flow Multi ◎→△☆
