◎ Box 2, Horse 4: Enne
- Last Race (G2 Rose S, 2nd place): She was completely marked by Monrowalk and lost by 0.5 seconds only in the final straight, so there might be a difference in ability. However, jockey Sakai commented, "I tried a different race strategy than usual with this Shuka Sho in mind. I think it was a very good performance." I believe this rivalry is not over yet.
- Two Races Ago (G1 Oaks, 7th place): If she finished within 0.3 seconds of the winner with the fastest last three furlongs, that's acceptable. The pace was front-runners favored, and the race shape didn't suit her.
- Three Races Ago (G2 Flora S, 2nd place): Lost to Rafter Lines by 0.2 seconds. She ran against colts in her generation and lost to Rafter Lines by 0.2 seconds while having the fastest last three furlongs. Also, considering the Tokyo turf 2000m stage where there was a 'jinx' that outer boxes + favorite horses couldn't win in the Tenno Sho Autumn, if she achieved this result from Box 8, Horse 13, it's a strong performance despite losing. Her opponent, Rafter Lines, would have been on par with Monrowalk if she had entered this race. In that race, Label Seine finished 5th.
Considering that Label Seine is at 13.4x odds for the Shuka Sho and Enne is at 26.1x, I personally think Enne is overwhelmingly the better pick. Natsu-san's score is 78.5 points, which is decent.
By the way, Enne had the 'Boys Over Flowers Doumyoji Love Game' mark on her.
From 2024 until Natsu-san temporarily retired, this mark appeared on Sol Oriens, Byzantine Dream, and Urban Chic, resulting in the following outcomes, but I think it's completely unrelated.
- 2024 Boys Over Flowers Doumyoji Love Game Mark ↳ Sol Oriens: 7th in Osaka Hai 2024, 2nd in Takarazuka Kinen 2024, 7th in Tenno Sho Autumn 2024
↳ Byzantine Dream: 13th in Satsuki Sho 2024, 17th in Japan Derby 2024
↳ Urban Chic: 6th in Arima Kinen 2024
↳ Masquerade Ball: 3rd in Satsuki Sho 2025
Personally, I might be clumsy, but if we consider that she raced from an inner box in her last start and has the operability that allows Jockey Sakai to try what he wants, I think it's no problem at all.
And as per Natsu-san's pace prediction stating "High pace is likely," I want to stick to the original course point: "Only late closers win the Shuka Sho" — this iron rule.
Jockey & Condition Data Analysis
Jockey Rusei Sakai, who won my heart at the press conference, has a record at Kyoto Racecourse in 2026 of 19-14-10-73, with a top-3 rate of 37.1%, single return of 57%, and compound return of 67%. This might not stand out for Jockey Sakai, but his record on turf + 2000m or more is excellent.
- 1000m~1300m: 1-0-0-4 (Top-3 rate 20.0% / Single return 210 / Compound return 60)
- 1400m~1600m: 1-2-1-17 (Top-3 rate 19.0% / Single return 8 / Compound return 22)
- 1700m~2000m: 4-0-3-13 (Top-3 rate 35.0% / Single return 108 / Compound return 77)
- 2100m~2400m: 1-2-1-3 (Top-3 rate 57.1% / Single return 32 / Compound return 91)
- 2500m~: 1-0-0-0 (Top-3 rate 100.0% / Single return 230 / Compound return 110)
Looking at Ecolo Alba's run in today's Fuji S, I hope she has awakened further.
Of course, she will get more popular, but if she has these achievements at 26.2x odds, I think she easily has a win probability of over 4%, so I want to make her my top pick.
The Dark Horse I Struggled With Last: Garaborg
I struggled super hard with Garaborg.
→ Too long since her last race, completely unknown. But she beat Matenro Gale in her second race, and Matenro Gale finished 5th in the Japan Derby. In the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, she was 0.2 seconds behind Star Anis, with the 2nd fastest last three furlongs. In the Queen Cup, she drifted left in the final straight, so I don't know if there was kickback, but I don't think she ran well at all. In the Oka Sho, she had help from her box and race shape. After the Queen Cup, it was said, "She was being blocked in the straight. There were issues visible in training." The camp naturally expects improvement. Assuming Matenro Gale is high level, comparing her gap to Star Anis in the Oka Sho, maybe the longer distance suits her.
I was worried about the layoff, but she had the Training Pegasus mark, so I considered making her my top pick, but I stopped because Enne seems to have a smoother rotation.
Garaborg is often seen as a speed horse suited for mile to 1800m due to her full brother Danon Scorpion winning the NHK Mile Cup and her own past achievements. While there are concerns about the 2000m Shuka Sho being her first time at this distance, analyzing her pedigree reveals sufficient groundwork to suggest she could handle it without surprise.
The key is the presence of her maternal sire Sligo Bay. Sligo Bay is a son of the famous stallion Sadler's Wells and himself won the US G1 Hollywood Turf Cup S (turf 2400m), a stamina-rich middle-to-long distance horse. In recent years, the Shuka Sho (Kyoto turf 2000m inner course) tends to become a long-spurt battle from before the third corner, and horses with Sadler's Wells' heavy power and endurance in their maternal line have consistently performed well every year.
If Lord Kanaloa's speed combines perfectly with the toughness and stamina inherited from Sligo Bay = Sadler's Wells, the steep slopes and long-spurt battles of the Kyoto inner course could actually be an ideal stage. With a pedigree combining "mile cutting edge" and "endurance to sustain 2000m," she has plenty of potential to overcome the barrier of a new distance and finish near the top.
[Conclusion & Betting Plan]
◎ Enne
I'll go with Show bet and trifecta combinations involving Na◎ and I◎. A belt win might be difficult, but please let me also do ①-④⑧⑫ as a lucky charm.
