U.S. Flash PMIs, Consumer Sentiment, American Express, SLB, Treasury Yields and France's Moody's Rating Review headline today's session.
Markets enter Friday following a sharp technology-led selloff, with investors focused on AI spending, economic resilience, inflation expectations and geopolitical risks ahead of next week's Fed meeting.
📅 TODAY'S SCHEDULE
🔸 2:00 AM — UK Retail Sales — September
🔸 3:15 AM — France Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs — October
🔸 3:30 AM — Germany Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs — October
🔸 4:30 AM — UK Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs — October
🔸 Before Open — American Express ($AXP), SLB ($SLB), First Citizens BancShares ($FCNCA), Booz Allen Hamilton ($BAH), Autoliv ($ALV), First Hawaiian ($FHB), Rithm Capital ($RITM), Gentex ($GNTX), Balchem ($BCPC), Gorman-Rupp ($GRC), GrafTech ($EAF) & World Acceptance ($WRLD) Earnings
🔸 8:30 AM — Canada Retail Sales — August
🔸 9:30 AM — SLB ($SLB) Earnings Call
9:45 AM — S&P GLOBAL U.S. FLASH PMIs
• Manufacturing PMI — October
• Services PMI — October
• Composite PMI — October
10:00 AM — UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
• October Final Sentiment
• Current Conditions
• Consumer Expectations
• 1-Year Inflation Expectations
• 5-Year Inflation Expectations
🔸 Friday — New York Fed Staff Nowcast Update
🔸 1:00 PM — Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count
🔸 Late Afternoon — CFTC Commitments of Traders Positioning Data
4:00 PM — MOODY'S FRANCE SOVEREIGN RATING REVIEW — EXPECTED
🔸 After Close — Limited major U.S. earnings scheduled
🔸 All Day — Fed Blackout, Treasury Yields, Oil Prices, Iran Headlines & AI Infrastructure Stocks
1. U.S. FLASH PMIs — 9:45 AM ET
October Manufacturing PMI
• Expected: 55.5
• Previous: 55.9
October Services PMI
• Expected: 57.9
• Previous: 58.8
October Composite PMI
• Watch the new reading and underlying price pressures
Key indicators:
• New orders and demand
• Business activity
• Employment
• Input costs
• Selling prices
Stronger activity could support Treasury yields and the dollar.
Weaker activity could reinforce concerns about slowing economic growth.
2. MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT — 10:00 AM ET
October Final Consumer Sentiment
• Expected: 46.3
• October preliminary: 46.3
• September final: 48.1
1-Year Inflation Expectations
• October preliminary: 4.7%
• September: 4.6%
5-Year Inflation Expectations
• October preliminary: 3.5%
• September: 3.4%
Focus: Whether consumer confidence remains weak while inflation expectations rise.
Higher inflation expectations could reinforce the Fed's cautious stance.
3. MAJOR PREMARKET EARNINGS
Financials
• American Express — $AXP
• First Citizens BancShares — $FCNCA
• First Hawaiian — $FHB
• Rithm Capital — $RITM
Energy & Industrials
• SLB — $SLB
• Autoliv — $ALV
• Gentex — $GNTX
• Gorman-Rupp — $GRC
• GrafTech — $EAF
Business Services & Other
• Booz Allen Hamilton — $BAH
• Balchem — $BCPC
• World Acceptance — $WRLD
Focus: Consumer spending, lending conditions, energy activity, industrial demand and forward guidance.
4. AMERICAN EXPRESS ($AXP) — CONSUMER SPENDING
American Express provides a key read on household and business spending.
Watch:
• Cardmember spending
• Travel and entertainment demand
• Credit quality
• Loan growth
• Earnings guidance
Market implications: Consumer resilience, financial-sector sentiment and credit conditions.
5. SLB ($SLB) — ENERGY SECTOR OUTLOOK
SLB reports amid elevated oil prices and Middle East uncertainty.
Watch:
• International drilling demand
• North American activity
• Middle East operations
• Profit margins
• Cash flow
• Management outlook
Focus: Whether higher crude prices are translating into stronger oilfield investment.
6. FRANCE — MOODY'S RATING DECISION
Moody's is expected to announce its France sovereign rating decision after U.S. markets close, around 4:00 PM ET.
France currently carries an Aa3 rating from Moody's.
A downgrade to A1 is widely anticipated by analysts, although the outcome is not confirmed.
Key risks:
• Political uncertainty
• Budget deficits
• Refinancing pressures
• Rising government borrowing costs
• Eurozone bond-market spillovers
Watch: French 10-year OAT yields, OAT-Bund spreads, European bank stocks and EUR/USD.
7. OIL & MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICS
Crude oil remains a major market driver amid concerns about regional security and supply disruptions.
Watch:
• Brent and WTI prices
• Strait of Hormuz shipping developments
• Iran-related headlines
• U.S. military and diplomatic developments
• Inflation implications
1:00 PM ET — Baker Hughes Rig Count
The report provides an updated view of U.S. drilling activity.
8. FED BLACKOUT & TREASURY YIELDS
The Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
Markets are focused on the prospect of unchanged rates amid persistent inflation concerns.
Key variables:
• 2-year Treasury yield
• 10-year Treasury yield
• U.S. dollar
• Inflation expectations
• Oil prices
PMIs and consumer inflation expectations are today's most important scheduled U.S. macro inputs.
9. AI & TECHNOLOGY — POST-SELLOFF REACTION
Thursday's technology-led decline has increased scrutiny of AI infrastructure spending and financing.
Watch:
• $NVDA — AI chip demand
• $META — AI capital spending
• $CRWV — Neocloud financing
• $NBIS — AI infrastructure investment
• $IREN — Data-center expansion
• $APLD — AI data-center development
• $WDC — Storage demand
• $BE — Data-center power demand
Focus: Whether selling pressure continues or investors return to AI-related stocks following the recent decline.
