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Resumo Macro A-Share

Resumo Macro A-Share

Boletim semanal macro e do mercado A-share

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Vviavoice1998
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A股宏观周报|2026-10-26 至 2026-11-01

信息窗口:2026-10-26 至 2026-11-01(Asia/Shanghai)|数据截至:PMI 为 2026 年 10 月,工业企业利润为 2026 年 1—9 月(9 月单月),市场数据截至 10 月 30 日收盘(周五,10 月最后一个交易日)|生成日期:2026-11-01|基准:沪深300,价格指数口径

说明:本期未检索到可复盘的上期报告。本周 CPI、PPI、社融、LPR 等数据没有新发布,因此“通胀”和“信用”两项只能给出信息不足的判断,不用旧数据补位。

一、本周五句话

  1. 数据显示,10 月制造业 PMI 回落到 49.3%,非制造业商务活动指数 49.7%,综合 PMI 产出指数 49.7%,景气整体下行。

  2. 最大的边际变化是风险偏好:沪深300 周跌 2.92%,创业板指周跌 10.08%,通信、电子、计算机跌幅居前,银行、石油石化、食品饮料上涨。

  3. 最重要的分歧在盈利与价格:1—9 月规上工业利润同比增长 15.5%,但利润高度集中在电子等少数行业,而 10 月 PMI 显示需求偏弱。

  4. 主要风险来自两处:海外科技股财报引发的 AI 资本开支担忧,以及海外利率上行预期;两者均来自二手报道,需要继续核验。

  5. 下周第一观察项是 11 月 2 日起的海外制造业 PMI 与 11 月 3 日美国中期选举,以及国内 11 月 9—16 日将集中披露的 10 月 CPI、PPI、社融和社零。

二、四因子快照:真正变化发生在何处

因子当前状态关键证据与数据期边际变化主要限制
增长走弱、结构分化2026 年 10 月制造业 PMI 49.3%,较上月降 0.8 个百分点;生产指数 49.8%,新订单指数 49.4%;高技术制造业 PMI 51.3%,装备制造业 PMI 50.6%(国家统计局,10 月 31 日发布)[1][2]整体回落,大型企业 PMI 50.2%,中、小型企业分别为 48.4%、47.5%PMI 是景气调查,不是实际产出;官方解释提到国庆前需求提前释放,可能是一次性扰动
通胀信息不足,价格涨幅收窄10 月 PMI 原材料购进价格指数 56.8%,出厂价格指数 51.7%,分别降 4.0 个、2.3 个百分点,仍高于 50%[2]价格类 PMI 边际降温本周没有 CPI、PPI 实际发布,PMI 价格分项不能替代通胀数据
信用信息不足本周无社融、信贷、货币供应新发布;10 月金融数据预计 11 月 9—16 日披露(二手日程)[7]未获取不对信用状态下结论
利率低位,资金面宽松7 天期逆回购操作利率 1.40%(10 月 29 日);Shibor 1 个月期 1.3768%,报道称为 2020 年 5 月以来新低;10 年期国债收益率约 1.60%—1.65%(10 月 30 日)[3][4]短端利率小幅下行10 年期收益率来自 Wind 转引的二手来源,未与中债官方序列交叉核验

增长与价格两项指向同一个方向:需求端偏弱,价格涨幅收窄,货币市场利率处于低位。但利润数据没有同步走弱。1—9 月规上工业企业利润 60337.4 亿元,同比增长 15.5%;9 月单月同比增长 14.4%,营业收入利润率 5.68%,同比提高 0.44 个百分点[5]。这说明盈利走强与景气回落同时存在,而且利润走强主要靠少数行业。

三、本周核心判断:证据与反证

判断一:10 月景气回落是“总量走弱、新动能仍扩张”,目前只能算边际信号

证据。 制造业 PMI 为 49.3%,比上月下降 0.8 个百分点;生产指数下降 1.9 个百分点,新订单指数下降 1.1 个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数下降 0.5 个百分点[1][2]。分项上,13 个分项指数中有 10 个下降,原材料库存指数和供应商配送时间指数上升,从业人员指数持平[1]。装备制造业 PMI 与高技术制造业 PMI 仍分别为 50.6% 和 51.3%[2]。

共识对照。 国家统计局和物流中心的解释是国庆前需求提前释放、节后消费回归平稳,以及基础原材料行业进入淡季[2]。物流与采购联合会的特约分析师则强调需求不足、下行压力加大[1]。以上均为单一渠道内部的不同表述,本文不将其概括为“市场共识”。

A股宏观周报|2026-10-26 至 2026-11-01

a-share-macro-weekly

What changed most this week?

The biggest change this week was risk appetite, not the macro data. The window is 26 Oct to 1 Nov 2026. I did not write a new report, because this board already has an English and a Chinese edition for the same window. This summary comes from those two editions, plus my own searches of this week's PMI and market reports. 1. Growth data turned weaker. - The official October manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 from 50.1, dropping below the 50 line. It was released on 31 Oct. Three outlets that I found in search results, including Xinhua and AP, report the same figure; I did not open the full pages. - New orders were 49.4 and new export orders were 48.7. Small firms were weakest at 47.5. - The National Bureau of Statistics partly blames demand pulled forward before the National Day holiday. That could make some of the drop temporary, so this is a marginal signal rather than a confirmed trend. 2. Equities sold off, led by tech. - The Shanghai Composite fell 1.44% on 30 Oct and closed below 3,600 at 3,599.02. - The ChiNext index fell 4.13% on 30 Oct. The STAR 50 fell more than 5%. - The Shanghai Composite lost 6.33% in October. The ChiNext index fell more than 23%. - The CSI 300 has fallen for 12 straight weeks. - The board's Chinese edition puts the CSI 300 down 2.92% and the ChiNext down 10.08% for the week. I did not re-verify those weekly figures against an exchange or index source. - Communications, electronics and computing fell most. Banks, oil, coal and liquor rose, and several large banks hit record highs. 3. Profits and demand are pulling apart. - January to September industrial profits grew 15.5% year on year, but electronics drives most of that gain. - The PMI points to weaker demand at the same time. Inflation, credit and rates had no new official releases this week. What to watch next: - Overseas manufacturing PMIs from 2 Nov. - The US midterm elections on 3 Nov. - October CPI, PPI and credit data, expected around 9–16 Nov (not an official calendar date). Limits: - The reasons given for the sell-off, such as AI capital-spending worries and rate expectations, come only from secondary reports. - No prior weekly report exists to review. - None of this is investment advice. You can open the full reports in the board: English edition and Chinese edition. Would you like this report to update automatically every week?

A-share weekly: biggest change

Descrição

1. Produza um boletim semanal de pesquisa macroeconômica da China e do mercado A-share, cobrindo dados relevantes, políticas e evoluções de mercado dos últimos sete dias. 2. Separe fatos, consenso e análise independente; inclua contraprovas, condições de monitoramento para a próxima semana e uma revisão das previsões anteriores. 3. Use para solicitações como "resumo macro semanal do A-share", "revisão semanal do mercado chinês", "macro semanal da China", "rastreador semanal do mercado chinês", "análise de crescimento, inflação, crédito e taxas", "o que monitorar nas ações A na próxima semana" ou "revisar se as previsões da semana passada se confirmaram".

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