I’ve largely stopped sharing charts over the past few months because, frankly, there hasn’t been much worth saying. The trend was down, the structure was deteriorating, and trying to force a bullish narrative would have been intellectually dishonest.
Today is different.
Not because Bitcoin suddenly looks bullish. It doesn’t.
But because we’re beginning to see conditions emerge that have historically accompanied every major Bitcoin cycle low.
The chart above marks all four Bitcoin halving events, along with the major cycle bottoms that followed them. One pattern immediately stands out: every meaningful Bitcoin bottom since 2012 occurred when weekly RSI reached oversold territory.
Not near oversold. Not approaching oversold.
Oversold.
That happened in 2015. It happened again in 2018. It happened at the FTX bottom in late 2022. And it happened again this March. These are the ONLY 4 times in history that it has happened.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that an oversold RSI reading magically identifies the exact bottom candle. Markets don’t work that way. Bottoms are processes, not events.
What it does suggest is that Bitcoin has entered the same momentum regime that has historically been present whenever a major cycle low was forming.
There’s another interesting observation.
The bottoms marked on the chart occurred roughly 777, 889, and 924 days after their respective halving events. Today, we’re approximately 770 days removed from the April 2024 halving, placing us directly within the historical window where prior cycles began exhausting themselves.
No single metric matters in isolation. RSI alone isn’t enough. Timing alone isn’t enough.
But when multiple independent signals begin pointing in the same direction, it’s worth paying attention.
The most compelling part of this setup may still be ahead of us.
Bitcoin’s March low (candle close) sits near $65,771. If price undercuts that level in the coming weeks while weekly RSI remains above its March reading, Bitcoin would form a large bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe.
In plain English, price would be making a lower low while momentum makes a higher low.
That’s exactly what happened near the FTX bottom in 2022.
Historically, those types of divergences don’t appear in the middle of major downtrends. They appear near the end of them.
None of this guarantees a bottom. Markets don’t offer guarantees.
In fact, the most likely bullish scenario may not be an immediate recovery at all. Previous cycle lows were followed by months of frustrating sideways price action before the next sustained advance began. The market typically requires time to transfer coins from weak hands to strong hands before a new trend can emerge. The most bullish scenario may be one final flush lower to create bullish divergence and trigger capitulation.
But if you’re looking for evidence that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of this correction rather than the early stages, the data is beginning to build a compelling case.
The trend remains down.
The chart still looks ugly.
Yet for the first time in months, the conditions that have historically marked major Bitcoin lows are beginning to appear.
