I've wanted to piece together my investment thesis for $ONDS for quite a while, but it's just trying to find the time. However, I'm happy to finally share with you why I'm so "invested" in $ONDS (pardon the pun), and why I believe this genuinely is a generational company.
Firstly, for those who don't know me, I'm a long term investor from the UK and I've been in the market since November 2024.
I first found $ONDS in Feb 2025 and my first buy was in March 2025 @ $0.65/share. After months of digging and going back and forth, I decided to concentrate my entire portfolio into $ONDS in August 2025.
Since then, I've realised roughly 330% in gains from my initial deposit, diversified, made profit elsewhere and I'm now back full port into $ONDS with a much larger core position.
What started as a niche play on drones and communications for me has turned into arguably the most interesting transformation story in the autonomous defense space.
Here's why I believe $ONDS is a great opportunity right now..
The Thesis in One Slide
The core argument is straightforward: Ondas is no longer a collection of point products. It is assembling a broad, fully autonomous defense stack that covers aerial security, persistent ISR, precision strike and autonomous ground vehicles.
The strategy is simple, yet complex. Classified by management as “Core + Strategic.”
What does this mean?
Grow the existing businesses hard, then selectively add capabilities that deepen the portfolio, accelerate the path to profitability and bring in new customer relationships.
On a pro forma organic basis the same businesses that existed in 2025 grew 85% year-over-year in Q2 (and 100% in Q1). Overall revenue is exploding because of the acquisitions, but the underlying organic momentum is real too.
What matters most now is integration. The strategic value sits in combining sensors, platforms, effectors and AI-enabled command and control into true systems-of-systems rather than selling individual widgets.
The company already operates in more than 60 countries with 1,700 employees across 25 locations. The Palantir relationship (especially SkyWeaver + Foundry) is central to that integration thesis.
The entire story ultimately depends on backlog conversion, successful integration, gross-margin discipline and operating leverage - not just continued M&A.
Core + Strategic Growth Plan
Core is simple: scale what you already own. Convert backlog into repeatable deployments, expand existing customer programs, build diversified lifecycle revenue, standardize and integrate manufacturing and field operations through Palantir's Foundry model, whilst driving gross margin and operating leverage. Core is about proving the machine can scale.
Strategic is about widening the moat: selective acquisitions, partnerships and prime channels, new geographies, sovereign production and deeper AI/autonomy integration.
The key question has shifted. It is no longer: “Can Ondas acquire growth?”
It is: “Can Ondas integrate growth faster than it adds complexity?”
The Company Has Changed
2025 into 2026 is less a product expansion and more a complete business-model transformation.
When I first invested in Ondas back in early 2025, it was still largely a single-product provider (Optimus, Iron Drone Raider, Kestrel, Ondas Networks). By late 2025 it had expanded the Palantir relationship, raised substantial capital and closed a string of acquisitions (Apeiro, Sentrycs, 4M Defense, Insight, Roboteam, Zickel etc.).
In the first half of 2026 the company raised another $1 billion, formalized the Core + Strategic Growth Plan, deepened the Palantir partnership further (SkyWeaver, AI Flight Director), and added more capabilities (Rotron, World View, Mistral, BIRD, INDO, Omnisys, Cyberhawk, DZYNE, Aran Defense).
Looking ahead, management have confirmed that the goal is “One Ondas” - an integrated operating platform sitting above specialized technology subsidiaries.
Pro forma backlog is already past $757 million with an $11 billion+ two-year pipeline. Adjusted EBITDA profitability keeps getting pulled forward. This is a result of the Core + Strategic Growth Plan.
Management: More Defense Depth, More Operating Scale
@CeoOndas remains Chairman & CEO (since 2018). He brings 30+ years of investing and operating experience and also Co-Chairs the Commercial Drone Alliance. Brock has also assembled and retained an extremely impressive executive team across Ondas.
Oshri Lugassy (Co-CEO, Ondas Autonomous Systems), former Rafael and IDF Combat Engineering. Gen. Patrick Huston (COO, General Counsel) is a retired U.S. Army officer with 35 years of service and prior roles on govt AI ethics boards. Ryan Hartman (CEO, Ondas Sentinel) is a former Raytheon executive and Naval Aviator. Matt McCue (CTO, Ondas Sentinel) founded DZYNE. Meir Kliner (President, OAS) founded Airobotics and has been involved with Optimus since 2014. David Barnea (Global President & Chairman, Ondas Defense) is the former Director of Mossad (2021–2026).
Brock has built a team with real defense and technology depth, as well as great networking relationships.
That matters when you are trying to sell systems rather than products.
“One Ondas” – The Portfolio
The company is organized across several mission areas:
- Aerial / C-UAS: Optimus, Iron Drone, Sentrycs, BIRD
- ISR: World View, DZYNE, Insight, SPO
- Precision Strike: DZYNE, Rotron, Mistral
- Ground: Roboteam, Apeiro, 4M, IndoEarth
- Industrial Intelligence: Cyberhawk
- Orchestration: SkyWeaver, LADOS, Omnisys and the broader Palantir ecosystem
The thesis is not that every subsidiary wins individually.
It is that the portfolio creates more ways to win a customer mission.
Systems, not products.
The 2026 Framework: Four Strategic Market Segments
- Aerial Security (C-UAS & Anti-Missile): Detect > Identify > Mitigate > Defeat. Key assets: Sentrycs, Iron Drone, Iron Arrow, DZYNE (Sawtooth/Dronebuster), BIRD.
- ISR & Persistent Intelligence: Stratosphere to theater to tactical edge. World View, ULTRA/LEAP, Optimus, SkyWeaver.
- Precision Strike — Affordable autonomous effects and mass production. Rotron (SkyLance), DZYNE (IonStrike), Mistral (UVision), Digital Bat.
- Autonomous Ground Systems — UGVs, demining, engineering, contested logistics. Roboteam, 4M, IndoEarth, Apeiro.
The connecting layer is AI-enabled command, mission management and decision support.
Systems of Systems: Layered C-UAS
At Eurosatory 2026 the message was clear: Ondas is trying to sell the architecture, not just the component.
Detect (Sentrycs/sensors) > Identify (RF analytics + fusion) > Track (C2 / airspace picture) > Mitigate (cyber takeover / EW) > Defeat (Iron Drone / IonStrike) > Assess (mission software feedback).
Layered C-UAS platforms with redundancy are what customers actually need. Ondas is one of the few companies that can offer the full chain under one roof. That is a genuine first-mover advantage in a market where governments are actively funding these architectures.
Layered ISR: Persistence + Intelligence
Ondas approaches ISR the same way it approaches C-UAS: not as another single aircraft for sale, but as a persistent, multi-layer system that combines autonomy and software orchestration.
The stack runs from the stratosphere all the way to the ground. At the top sit World View’s Stratollites for long-duration high-altitude autonomy. Below them are the long-endurance Group 4+ platforms, DZYNE’s ULTRA and LEAP, capable of theater-level coverage. Medium-range autonomous UAV reconnaissance is handled by systems such as the Talon DT-150/300, while low-altitude surveillance is delivered through their drone-in-a-box solution, Optimus. Closing the loop at the surface is ground-area dominance via autonomous AI sensing (Insight).
The result is a continuous intelligence picture that can cue, task and re-task assets across altitudes in near real time - especially when tied into SkyWeaver. Instead of buying one more ISR aircraft, customers get a layered, software-defined sensing architecture that stays on station far longer and hands off targets seamlessly between domains.
Autonomous Ground Systems: The Front Line
Roboteam (tactical UGVs), 4M Defense (demining / land intelligence), IndoEarth (military heavy engineering), and Apeiro (small UGV's + fiber optic spools) give Ondas a meaningful presence on the ground.
This diversifies the revenue mix, creates cross-domain opportunities with aerial ISR and C-UAS and opens different procurement pathways (border security, demining, engineering programs etc.).
Containerized deployments and first-contact robotics that reduce casualties are exactly the kinds of capabilities the Department of War are interested in.
Global Partnerships & Experience
Ondas has built a genuinely global commercial and government footprint over the last 18 months.
The company now maintains more than 100 strategic partnerships spanning 6 continents and serves over 500 military, government and utility customers across more than 70 countries.
End markets are deliberately broad: Defense and homeland security sit alongside energy & utilities, critical infrastructure, mining, aerospace and public safety, giving the portfolio multiple routes to revenue and reducing reliance on any single procurement cycle.
The depth of relationships with primes, integrators, resellers and direct government customers is one of the clearest signals that Ondas is no longer a niche product supplier but an increasingly relevant systems player on the world stage.
Experience Matters
Ondas has deliberately recruited senior talent from the largest defense primes and government agencies around the world.
These are individuals with distinguished careers, experience at the highest levels of military and industry leadership, and deep technical understanding of autonomous systems.
The calibre of the team is a clear signal of Ondas’ ambition and its willingness to compete head-on in a demanding, highly competitive landscape.
This is how you compete for larger, more complex programs.
Ondas Sentinel: The U.S. Defense Operating Platform
Sentinel has intentionally combined DZYNE and World View into a U.S.-scale vehicle with manufacturing (230k+ sq ft, 23× increase YoY), engineering and vast customer relationships.
DZYNE alone is guided to $300M+ in 2027 with $111M already in backlog.
The focus is multi-domain ISR-to-effects: stratosphere > theater > tactical edge, supported by SkyWeaver.
The goal is larger, integrated U.S. defense programs rather than one-off sales.
Ondas × Palantir: SkyWeaver
SkyWeaver is the AI-enabled mission operating system built on Palantir Foundry & AIP, alongside Palantir and owned exclusively by Ondas. It fuses data from stratospheric balloons, long-endurance UAS, tactical UAS and ground sensors, then automatically tasks assets and delivers decision-ready intelligence.
In July 2026, Ondas Sentinel demonstrated an industry-first C-UAS engagement that cued third-party lasers with 20× greater accuracy and no RF emissions.
This is the unifying software layer that turns a portfolio of platforms into a true system-of-systems.
Ondas Capital
Ondas Capital has a $150M chest to invest into battle-tested, dual-use technology.
Primarily Ukraine > U.S./EU companies at TRL 7+. The idea is to invest early, then use Ondas’ operating footprint to commercialize and bring to Allied markets.
Financial Review
Now, the fun stuff.
Q2 gross profit was $36.1M (43.1% GAAP, 50.4% adjusted). Adjusted EBITDA was –$50.6M as the company invests heavily in growth. Cash remains strong at $1.4B (Closer on $1.1B now after DZYNE acq). Q3 revenue guide is $140–155M; whilst FY26 was raised again to $525–550M.
OpEx is significantly elevated ($199M in Q2, including significant stock-based compensation and infrastructure/Palantir spend). Management expects OpEx growth to peak in Q2 and flatten or decline in the second half of 2026.
The large blocks of warrants issued in the Oct 2025 raise ($20) and the Jan 2026 raise ($28) are classified as liabilities and therefore re-measured at fair value every quarter. Even modest moves in the share price create sizeable non-cash gains or losses that can swing reported net income from a deep loss to a large profit (or vice versa) and produce equally volatile EPS numbers.
These swings have nothing to do with operating performance or cash generation; they are pure accounting noise. The overhang itself also represents potential future dilution if the warrants are eventually exercised.
Margins are holding at the 50% target. The company continues to beat and raise. Strategic investments ($UMAC, $KOPN, $LPTH, $SPAI) are showing great unrealized gains to add to the balance sheet too (+$40-50M).
Growth is real. Profitability is still ahead, but the path is becoming clearer.
The Big Question: Dilution
The one the bears have all been waiting for..
Dilution.
Let's dive into why this is a real and fair concern, but why it's necessary right now.
Shares outstanding have expanded dramatically, from 93.17 million at the end of 2024 to 469.1 million by March 2026 and 570.55 million by late June 2026, an increase of roughly 512% from Dec 24.
Dilution on this scale is extreme. It is only acceptable if the acquired revenue, backlog, gross profit and strategic access grow faster than the share count.
The main questions for me are: Are the acquisitions accretive? Is integration working? Are the new combined platforms securing business?
So far, the answer is - Yes.
The acquisitions have been accretive, integration is progressing and the combined platform is already securing larger programmes.
Scaling from a single-product supplier into a broad autonomous-defence operating platform has required heavy investment; moving toward neo-prime/prime contractor scale will require more still.
Equity has been the smarter financing route at this stage of the lifecycle because it preserves the balance sheet. Which is one of Ondas' main strengths in a fragmented, competitive market.
The market cap has 4X over the last year, but the stock has also 10x. As my good friend @YoYInvestor says: “the pie is getting bigger, but your slice is more valuable.”
That is the definition of accretive, not purely dilutive.
Catalysts – The Next 12 Months Are About Execution
Backlog has moved from $68M at the end of Q4 2025 to $757M+ pro forma (closer on $900-950M as of Q3).
Recent order flow is strong ($175M in Q2, $105M already in Q3, multiple large U.S. Army and international awards).
Key catalysts to watch:
- $1.5T NDAA Budget Proposal / Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) funding ($54.6B, or 24,000% increase YoY)
- DZYNE ramp and potential Program of Record status for ULTRA
- Rotron SkyLance deployments (Eastern Flank, Ukraine)
- NASA IDIQ expansion to $395M from $45M
- Major event C-UAS opportunities (Olympics, European Championships, etc.)
- STINGRAI ($2.2B w/ HII via Ondas Sentinel) and other large IDIQs
- System of systems contracts for MODUS, Iron Wave, Dual Shield etc.
Risk / Reward
Bull case: Backlog converts cleanly, Sentinel and SkyWeaver scale quickly, C-UAS becomes recurring platform revenue, ISR/ULTRA programs turn into Programs of Record, Cyberhawk adds sticky software revenue, Palantir integration lifts the whole portfolio, gross margins and operating leverage improve and adj. EBITDA profitability arrives ahead of schedule, sector-wide tailwinds means the stock trades at a premium.
Base case: Revenue keeps compounding, integration takes time, M&A remains mostly accretive but uneven, share count continues to rise and offsets some of the operating progress, valuation stays tightly linked to execution rather than a premium.
Bear case: Integration fails or costs stay elevated, backlog quality disappoints, defense pro
curement slows, dilution outruns cash generation and earnings, profitability gets pushed out further.
The thesis breaks if scale does not translate into better unit economics and repeatable program capture.
Ondas is Positioned to Win
Ondas currently sits in large and still-expanding defense market with a diversified portfolio that already spans four strategic segments. Layered CUAS and ISR especially are at the beginning of a multi-year supercycle, which management expects to result in "S-Curve" growth.
A rapidly growing backlog and accelerating commercial momentum are underpinned by a genuine global customer base and a dense web of strategic partnerships. The company is no longer selling isolated products; it is assembling an integrated technology platform that ties sensors, effectors and AI-enabled command into coherent mission systems.
With that architecture in place and the path to profitable, scalable growth becoming clearer, the ingredients needed to build a long-term leader in autonomous defense and dual-use technologies sits right in Ondas' hands.
Conclusion: Watch the Execution, Not the Headlines
Ondas is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity to build and scale an independent autonomous defense neo/prime and dual-use platform.
The six things that will decide whether this works:
- Backlog conversion ($757M+ must become revenue and gross profit)
- Ondas Sentinel (scaled production + real U.S. program wins)
- Operating leverage (Adj. EBITDA losses need to narrow as revenue ramps)
- Dilution discipline (new shares must buy growth that compounds faster than ownership is diluted)
- Integration (LADOS / SkyWeaver / Palantir must make the business feel like one platform)
- Repeatability (customers return, expand and buy multiple layers)
If Ondas successfully converts its broad portfolio into an integrated platform, that platform into larger multi-domain programs and those programs into real operating leverage, then the long-term opportunity is substantial.
As I said in the beginning..
I believe Ondas is a generational company.
Not financial advice.
