My latest industry survey indicates that assembly shipments for the foldable iPhone in 2H26 will be roughly 7–8 million units, with 3Q26 shipments at 0.5–1 million units, or about 10% of the total. By comparison, estimated 3Q26 shipments of the iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max total roughly 20–22 million units, significantly higher than the foldable iPhone and already meeting the inventory requirement for an official launch.
From the perspective of its 3Q26 inventory build, the foldable iPhone is likely to repeat what happened with the iPhone X in 2017: it may be announced alongside the other new models, but with pre-orders and official sales both coming later.
Key points:
- The iPhone X’s key technological innovations and selling points at the time were that it was the first iPhone to adopt an OLED all-screen design, and that it introduced the notch and the Face ID / TrueDepth camera system. Because the iPhone X was difficult to manufacture, its 3Q17 assembly shipments were estimated at below 1 million units. The foldable iPhone is highly similar to the iPhone X in this regard: both use an innovative user experience as a key selling point, while manufacturing challenges limit early production.
- Although Apple announced the iPhone X together with the iPhone 8 / 8 Plus on September 12, 2017, iPhone X pre-orders opened on October 27 and official sales began on November 3, later than the iPhone 8 / 8 Plus’s September 15 pre-order date and September 22 launch date. The reason was that iPhone X inventory had not reached the level required for a September launch. Viewed from this perspective, the foldable iPhone, given its limited 3Q26 shipments, may also not open for pre-orders or officially go on sale until 4Q26.
- Based on discussions with carriers, sales channels, and resellers / proxy buyers, commonly referred to as scalpers, my conclusion is that demand for the foldable iPhone should remain strong at least through the end of 2026, even at a price of roughly US$2,300–2,500. This means the foldable iPhone could sell out immediately after pre-orders open, with delivery lead times quickly stretching to 4–6 weeks or longer and remaining there through December. Scarce initial supply, a highly recognizable design, and an innovative user experience should all support a short-term resale premium; resale prices 50–100% above the official price would not be out of the question.
- The iPhone X supply crunch had eased significantly by late November 2017, and its 2H17 shipments ultimately reached roughly 30 million units. By comparison, foldable iPhone shipments in 2H26 are expected to be much lower at only about 7–8 million units, likely constrained by both the higher price point and greater manufacturing difficulty.
- The best window for assessing true demand for the foldable iPhone is likely late 2026 to 1Q27. By then, the impact of the year-end peak season and launch buzz should be fading, while early production issues and supply constraints should have improved significantly. As these temporary factors gradually subside, it should become much clearer whether demand for the foldable iPhone is sustainable.
