[Tanabata Sho] Final Predictions

@Mingokeiba
日语1天前 · 2026年7月11日
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TL;DR

Former racing reporter Mingo provides a detailed analysis for the Tanabata Sho, highlighting Meiner Mond as a high-value pick due to favorable weight shifts and course conditions.

● 2026 | Graded Stakes Main Pick Results\nWin ROI 175%\n\nhttps://x.com/Mingokeiba/status/2030172682277507280\n\nhttps://x.com/Mingokeiba/status/2029943029176619205\n\nhttps://x.com/Mingokeiba/status/2071125584667988390\n\nhttps://x.com/Mingokeiba/status/2068588770392424775\n\nShirasagi ◎ Elton Barows (7th fav, 12.9x) 🥇\n\nFuchu Himba S ◎ Sekitoba East (5th fav, 9.4x) 🥇\n\nFillies ◎ Gillies Ball (10th fav, 24.5x) 🥇\n\nFukushima Himba ◎ Koganeno Sora (9th fav, 29.2x) 🥇\n\nNakayama Kim ◎ Kalamatianos (7th fav, 14.8x) 🥇\n\nKokura Dai ◎ Tagano Dude (4th fav, 7.4x) 🥇\n\nAoi Ste ◎ ② Dea Veloce (5th fav, 8.7x) 🥇\n\nUnicorn ◎ Silver Ratio (2nd fav, 2.8x) 🥇\n\nFlora ◎ Laughter Lines (1st fav, 2.2x) 🥇\n\nTenno Sho Spring ◎ Croix du Nord (1st fav, 1.8x) 🥇\n\nHanshin Himba ◎ Embroidery (1st fav, 2.8x) 🥇\n\nShinzan ◎ Sound Move (4th fav, 7.2x) 🥈\n\nDiamond ◎ Feian Kranz (3rd fav, 7.8x) 🥈\n\nMainichi Hai ◎ Altraums (1st fav, 2.4x) 🥈\n\nNikkei Sho ◎ Mikuni Inspire (2nd fav, 4.0x) 🥈\n\nNZT ◎ Rodeo Drive (1st fav, 1.7x) 🥈\n\nNikkei Shin ◎ Lybian Glass (9th fav, 21.2x) 🥉\n\nProcyon ◎ Le Cheval d'Or (8th fav, 12.7x) 🥉\n\nNegishi S ◎ Danon Figo (4th fav, 7.2x) 🥉\n\nKisaragi ◎ Laughter Lines (4th fav, 7.0x) 🥉\n\nYayoi Sho ◎ Admire Quads (1st fav, 2.2x) 🥉\n\nKeisei Hai ◎ Solanelman (1st fav, 3.6x) 🥉\n\n———————————————\n\n## [Tanabata Sho] Final Prediction\n◎ ⑥ Meiner Mond\n\n———————————————\n\nCurrently out of the money for 9 consecutive races. Just looking at the form, it's hard to imagine a sudden surge here.\n\nHowever, if you scrutinize the race content and the competition, you'll see why Meiner Mond is the best horse to target in this year's Tanabata Sho.\n\nThe most impressive performance was the Nakayama Kinen three starts ago.\n\nDespite the fast opening-week track not being ideal for Meiner Mond, he finished 4th, only 0.4 seconds behind the winner. Crucially, he was only 0.1 seconds behind Kalamatianos (2nd), while carrying 1kg more weight. Kalamatianos is the favorite for this Tanabata Sho. This confirms Meiner Mond's ability is among the top in this field.\n\nThe significant improvement seen from the Nakayama Kinen onwards isn't a coincidence; he started wearing blinkers in that race. It's natural to assume they are working.\n\nFurthermore, his performance in the Fukushima Mimpo Hai two starts ago was better than it looked. While the two leaders set a high pace, the main pack moved at a slow pace. The winner Savona and 3rd place Schilthorn were running at the front of that pack. Meiner Mond was forced to race from the back and suffered a fatal disadvantage when the fading leader Peace One Duc dropped back into him. Despite this, he charged home for 4th. With a smooth run, he would have easily finished 2nd.\n\nThe previous Epsom Cup was a speed contest at Tokyo, which doesn't suit him. You can ignore that result.\n\nThe Fukushima 2000m course often becomes a war of attrition. With many front-runners entered, the pace should be fast, which is perfect for Meiner Mond, who excels in stamina battles rather than pure speed.\n\nThe biggest factor: compared to the Nakayama Kinen where he carried 1kg more than Kalamatianos and lost by 0.1s, he now carries 2kg less than him. That's a 3kg swing in his favor. Overturning a 0.1s gap should be easy.\n\nWhile Kalamatianos is the 1st favorite, Meiner Mond is projected at 11th. You can't afford to miss this.\n\n———————————————\n\n## ◯ ④ Kalamatianos\n\n———————————————\n\nRecommended as the main pick for the Nakayama Kimpai earlier this year, where he won at 7th favorite. As I mentioned then, he was just being used in unsuitable races before; he has the talent to perform in graded stakes. The Epsom Cup 6th place was due to an unsuitable speed battle and getting blocked. Moving to a small track and a high-pace stamina battle is a big plus.\n\n———————————————\n\n## ▲ ⑪ Ask Nice Show\n\n———————————————\n\nIgnore the previous Nikkei Sho where he faded after a super high pace. His performance in the Geishun Stakes two starts ago was exceptional. The winning time was only 0.1s slower than the G2 AJCC held at the same meeting. He is a typical stamina horse who has never recorded a top-2 fastest closing split, making the Fukushima 2000m ideal.\n\n————————————\n\n## Actual betting tickets will be released on race day. Please follow and wait.\n\n————————————————\n\n## ● Tanabata Sho Final Conclusion\n\n## ◎ ⑥ Meiner Mond\n◯ ④ Kalamatianos\n▲ ⑪ Ask Nice Show\n△ ②⑦⑫⑬⑮⑯\n\n————————————————

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