The stands at Carp games aren't filling up. If you stop at 'because the team is weak,' you miss the essence. I'm writing honestly about what's happening from a management perspective.
Worst attendance in the Central League.
The average attendance for the Hiroshima Carp's 14 games at Mazda Stadium this season is 27,541. Games are consistently failing to reach the 33,000 capacity. Back when 'Carp Girls' was a buzzword, tickets were impossible to get, and even visitor games would fill up from the third-base side. There's no trace of that now.
'Because the team is weak' explains a lot. But I don't think that's all.
It's a combination of ticket sales design, the approach to casual fans, and competitiveness as entertainment.
When seats don't fill, we need to suspect that it's not that 'customers aren't coming,' but rather that 'the system is designed so they can't or don't want to come.'
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■ The Ticket Design Problem: 'Preventing Interested Customers from Coming'
First, I want to speak honestly about the tickets.
Tickets are sold all at once and sell out instantly. There is no official resale. Fan club benefits aren't functioning. The system forces you to 'just grab them' on March 1st without even knowing your schedule.
This means the system is designed so that customers who want to come, can't.
I heard a poignant story from someone in the fan club ticket tier. By the time they connected for early access, group seats were sold out. They settled for outfield reserved seats in the back. When general sales opened, group seats were still available. They felt there was no point in joining the fan club.
From a management standpoint, this is serious. The fan club—the priority purchase right for more enthusiastic fans—isn't working. It's a betrayal of core fans.
On the other hand, if an important plan comes up later, you can't cancel. Since there's no official resale, tickets flow to scalpers. You end up in a situation where you have to buy tickets above list price to go.
Reading this as a business owner, I see it as a 'customer experience design failure.' The basis of attracting customers should be creating a system where those who want to come can do so easily. Saying 'customers aren't coming' without fixing that basic step is getting the order wrong.
'Are we creating a structure that prevents the customers we want from coming?' This is the first question to ask when foot traffic drops.
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■ The Atmosphere of 'Carp Girls are Fakes' Weakens Management
There's an air of ridicule, calling 'Carp Girls' 'bandwagon fans' (niwaka). From a management perspective, I think this is the opposite of what should happen.
Professional baseball is show business. How to attract casual fans is a crucial management issue.
Casual fans stop coming when the team is weak. That's a fact. But they come when the team is strong. They come to the stadium, eat, buy merchandise, post on social media, and invite friends. That cycle supports entertainment revenue.
Core fans alone cannot fill the seats. Core fans will come to the stadium, but they can't fill every seat for every game. Only with casual fans does the stadium get that 'bustling' atmosphere. That atmosphere attracts even more people.
The 'Carp Girls are fakes' vibe drives away casual fans. Making them feel like they aren't 'real fans' raises the hurdle for their next visit. The psychological cost of coming increases.
The same thing happens in business. Companies that only value 'real customers' or 'core clients' and neglect new or casual customers see their customer base gradually wither. Core customers decrease with age. If you don't keep bringing in new people, you will only shrink in the long run.
The ability to attract casual fans determines long-term drawing power. A culture that ridicules 'bandwagoners' is strangling itself.
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■ Creating 'Highlights Even When Weak'
There was a voice saying, 'If there are players you want to see even if the team is weak, or if you can feel the team's growth, people will come. But there are too many boring games with the same losing patterns.'
This hits the nail on the head.
Whether you can create 'highlights' to attract customers even during weak periods depends on the team's effort.
There's the story of following a rookie's growth. There's a specific player's record attempt. There's the pride of a rivalry with another team. Teams that can create these 'reasons to watch today's game' can maintain a certain level of attendance even during weak periods.
With the current Carp, there are parts where that 'reason to watch' isn't being communicated. Using Shogo Sakakura as the cleanup hitter is an interesting attempt. Games where young players get results are exciting. But is that story reaching fans who aren't coming to the stadium?
It's the same in business. Even when a product isn't perfect, the retention rate differs between companies that can create a 'reason to use this' or a 'reason to get involved now' and those that can't. If you wait until it's perfect, the relationship will be severed.
The ability to design 'highlights' during weak periods builds long-term fans. A design that only gets exciting when you win will see relationships cut during the lean years.
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■ Management that Invests in 'Merchandise and Seat Renovations' Instead of Strengthening the Team
A common criticism of the front office is this point.
They are putting more effort into merchandise and seat renovations than into investments to make the team stronger. Fans feel their thoughts and voices are being completely ignored.
I see this as a matter of short-term vs. long-term balance in management.
Merchandise revenue is stable. Seat renovations improve comfort and can raise unit prices. Both are meaningful measures in the short term.
But in the long run, as long as the structure is 'customers don't come unless the team is strong,' neglecting investment in the team will cause attendance to thin out. Merchandise and seats only have meaning if customers come.
If you neglect investment in the essential value (team strength/game excitement) and only improve peripheral experiences (merchandise/seats), the fundamental problem won't be solved.
The same thing happens in business. Improving only the packaging or sales channels without raising product quality. Without essential value, no matter how much you polish the periphery, it won't last.
In my experience looking at finances, management that prioritizes short-term revenue and neglects long-term investment will inevitably stall in a few years. I don't know if the Carp front office's judgment is truly like that, but the fact that fans feel that way means there is definitely a communication problem.
Polishing peripheral experiences without investing in essential value won't last. I believe this is true for both pro baseball and business.
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■ The Perspective of 'Entertainment Competition'
There was a voice saying, 'Rather than paying thousands of yen for the current Carp, a nice meal or a movie is more fun.'
This hits the essence of management.
All entertainment is competition.
Watching a baseball game competes with movies, dining out, travel, games, and streaming services. Baseball is included in the choice of 'where to spend today's time and several thousand yen.'
During the Carp Girl boom, 'watching a Carp game' itself was a trend. Going there had an image of being 'fashionable' and 'fun.' During that period, the Carp held a strong position among entertainment competitors.
Now, they have dropped from that position. The games are boring. The team is weak. The benefits of going aren't visible. In that state, they lose to other entertainment.
The diversification of entertainment in the Reiwa era is progressing further. You can watch top-tier content from home via streaming. Dining options have increased. Experiential entertainment has increased. To keep being chosen in this competition, you have to keep creating a 'reason to come to the stadium today.'
Organizations that can't win against entertainment competition will see foot traffic drop. I believe this is the same for pro baseball teams and small businesses alike.
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■ Summary
- There is a ticket design problem that 'prevents interested customers from coming.' It's a customer experience design failure.
- The atmosphere of 'Carp Girls are fakes' drives away casual fans. Attracting casual fans determines long-term drawing power.
- Can you design a 'reason to watch today' even during weak periods? That ability builds long-term fans.
- Polishing peripheral experiences without investing in essential value (team strength) won't last.
- All entertainment is competition. It's necessary to keep creating a 'reason to come today' that can beat movies, dining, and streaming.
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I think the answer to the question 'Where did the Carp Girls go?' is simple.
They stopped coming because they lost the reason to come. That's all.
Creating the reason to come is the team's job. Making the team strong, making tickets easier to get, communicating highlights even during weak periods, and creating an atmosphere where casual fans feel comfortable.
All are 'easier said than done,' but I believe continuing to do them is what maintains a show business.
When foot traffic drops, don't ask 'why aren't customers coming,' but 'have we failed to design a reason for them to come?' I think this is the same for baseball teams and management.
