[Tokyo 11R] NHK Mile Cup: Final Conclusion

Win Return Rate: 169.0%

Philly ◎ Gillies Ball (10th fav, 24.5x) 🥇

Fukushima Himba ◎ Kogane no Sora (9th fav, 29.2x) 🥇

Nakayama Kim ◎ Kalamatianos (7th fav, 14.8x) 🥇

Kokura Dai ◎ Tagano Dude (4th fav, 7.4x) 🥇

Unicorn ◎ Silver Ratio (2nd fav, 2.8x) 🥇

Flora ◎ Laughter Lines (1st fav, 2.2x) 🥇

Tenno Sho Spring ◎ Croix de Nord (1st fav, 1.8x) 🥇

Hanshin Himba ◎ Embroidery (1st fav, 2.8x) 🥇

Shinzan ◎ Sound Move (4th fav, 7.2x) 🥈

Diamond ◎ Feian Kranz (3rd fav, 7.8x) 🥈

Mainichi Hai ◎ Altrams (1st fav, 2.4x) 🥈

Nikkei Sho ◎ Mikuni Inspire (2nd fav, 4.0x) 🥈

NZT ◎ Rodeo Drive (1st fav, 1.7x) 🥈

Nikkei Shin ◎ Libyan Glass (9th fav, 21.2x) 🥉

Procyon ◎ Le Cheval d'Or (8th fav, 12.7x) 🥉

Negishi S ◎ Danon Figo (4th fav, 7.2x) 🥉

Kisaragi ◎ Laughter Lines (4th fav, 7.0x) 🥉

Yayoi Sho ◎ Admire Quads (1st fav, 2.2x) 🥉

Keisei Hai ◎ Solanel Man (1st fav, 3.6x) 🥉

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● Last Week's Hit

【Unicorn S】

🥇 ◎ ④ Silver Ratio (2nd fav, 2.8x)

🥈 ○ ⑪ Mercanteur (1st fav, 2.2x)

🥉 ▲ ② Keiai Agito (5th fav, 10.4x)

///

◎→○→▲ 1st, 2nd, 3rd place finish

30,000 yen → 158,500 yen return

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【#NHKMileCup】Final Prediction 【◎◯▲⭐︎ attached at the end】

◎ ⑩ Ecolo Alba (Projected 4th fav)

● Recommended Reasons *Detailed explanation below

① Strong performance in Asahi Hai & Kanto horse → All became G1 winners

② Debut race and Saudi RC were both exceptional

③ Switching to Tokyo and a Good track are both massive positives

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Among the top favorites for this year's NHK Mile Cup who ran in last year's Asahi Hai FS, this horse had the worst finishing position.

However, I, Mingo, want to buy Ecolo Alba the most out of that group.

The reasons are the content of the Asahi Hai race and the fact that it is a Kanto-based horse, unlike the other top contenders.

First, let's look back at the Asahi Hai.

Ecolo Alba had its first-ever good start and secured a perfect position on the inner rail, despite previously only racing from the back.

Everything was smooth until the positioning from before the third corner to the home straight.

Perhaps because the jockey wanted to draw out its closing speed, he intentionally dropped the position. Additionally, at the 3rd and 4th corners, he switched from the rail to the far outside, running a very inefficient race about 5 or 6 horses wide.

Combined with the soft track that blunted its sharp finishing kick, the result was 4th place.

I know "what-ifs" are forbidden in racing, but...

"If it had stayed on the inside like the winner did..."

"If the race had been on a Good track..."

Ecolo Alba might have won that ultra-high-level Asahi Hai last year. The race content makes me believe that.

There is one more point that was a major disadvantage for Ecolo Alba in last year's Asahi Hai.

It was the only horse among the top four finishers that was a Kanto-based horse.

Few people may know this, but the temporary stables for Kanto horses at Hanshin Racecourse are located right next to the spectator walkways, parking lots, and roads, where noise echoes directly.

In other words, it is extremely difficult to adjust Kanto horses traveling to Hanshin. For a young 2-year-old horse on its first long trip, this environment is brutal. Because of this, it is extremely difficult for Kanto horses to perform at 100% in the Asahi Hai FS.

Even so, horses that perform well there due to sheer potential can be judged as having very high ability. In fact, in the last 10 years of the Asahi Hai FS, every Kanto horse that was within the top 4 favorites and finished in the top 5 has become a G1 winner (excluding Labeling in 2022, which was a historically low-level year).

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Ecolo Alba 👈 NEW

Realize Sirius 👈 NEW

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This means Ecolo Alba and Realize Sirius, who finished 4th and 5th last year despite being Kanto horses, can be evaluated higher than their results suggest. In fact, Realize Sirius went on to finish 2nd in the Satsuki Sho.

Considering the inefficient race path and the high probability that it wasn't in peak condition due to the difficult Hanshin trip, my conclusion is that Ecolo Alba is the horse to value most from last year's Asahi Hai FS.

The fact that the Hanshin trip is a "death trap" for 2-year-old Kanto horses is not widely known, which adds significant betting value.

Needless to say, its two races prior to the Asahi Hai were also excellent. In the Saudi Arabia RC two starts ago, it showed incredible closing speed to catch the field from the very back in a race where the last 3 furlongs were 11.5-11.3-11.2 seconds. Its debut race was also superb, easily winning with a closing 2-furlong split of 11.3-11.1.

By the way, the only other horse to win a 2-year-old 1400m debut with a time under 1:21.5 and a final furlong under 11.3s is Maurice, a 6-time G1 winner.

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Ecolo Alba 👈 NEW

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Considering it won that with an accelerating lap, it's no exaggeration to say it's one of the highest-level 2-year-old 1400m debut performances in history.

It's returning from a 4.5-month break, but the workouts show no concerns, and given its late birth date of April 30, it's very possible it has grown more than other horses during this time. This adds to the odds appeal.

Returning to the Kanto region, the long Tokyo straight, and a Good track are all positives. It is entirely possible for it to overtake the three horses that finished ahead of it in the Asahi Hai. To the mile throne with a grand outside sweep.

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○ ⑫ Anduril

Its recent two races look bad on paper, but I, Mingo, guarantee its ability is top-tier. It showed glimpses of this since its debut.

The 32.8s final 3-furlong time Anduril recorded in its debut is the fastest ever for a Hanshin 1600m debut race—including 3-year-old debuts. It recorded this in the first week of June. It only lost because it got caught in an ultra-slow pace.

My conviction was solidified in its second race, an unplaced maiden. Only three horses in history have won a Chukyo 1600m race (2rd to 3rd year April) in under 1:35.5.

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Won in under 1:33.5

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Recording these numbers in August of its 2rd year with a final 3F of 11.8-11.5-11.5 proves its generational potential. Its third race, the Ivy S, was also excellent. Only three other horses have won a Tokyo 1800m 2-year-old race in under 1:46.9 with a final furlong under 11.2s: Croix de Nord and Masquerade Ball.

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Anduril 👈 NEW

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While the fast Tokyo track last autumn must be considered, the performance was G1 level. Its subsequent 7th and 8th place finishes have clear reasons. The Hopeful S was simply too long for a horse that struggles with temperament even at a mile. The previous Churchill Downs C was on a soft track, which I flagged as a concern beforehand. It clearly prefers fast tracks.

This time, a fast mile track is likely its best condition. Its potential is equal to the Asahi Hai group, making it a great value pick now that its popularity has dropped.

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▲ ⑪ Admire Quads

I've said since last autumn that this year's 3-year-old mile crop is the strongest in history. This horse is one of its pillars.

Its debut time and laps were exceptional. Only three horses have won a Tokyo 1600m 2-year-old debut in under 1:34.6 with a final furlong under 11.2s: Gran Alegria and Bond Girl.

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Admire Quads 👈 NEW

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In the Daily Hai 2-Year-Old S, it had a match race with Cavallerizzo. The winning time of 1:33.1 and final furlong of 11.2s are abnormal. In the last 10 years at Kyoto 1600m, only four 2-year-olds have won in under 1:34.1 with a final furlong under 11.5s. All three others won a 2-year-old G1 that year.

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It finished 3rd in the Asahi Hai FS after running wide on a track that favored the inside. However, its recent two races (Yayoi Sho and Satsuki Sho) were disappointing. While it faced some disadvantages, it seemed to run out of steam before the straight. Returning to a mile is a plus, but the third Kanto transport in a short period is a concern. It remains a high-level contender but not the top pick due to recent form and lack of betting value.

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☆ ④ Cavallerizzo

I made this horse my ◎ in the Asahi Hai FS, and it won. Its debut was the moment I knew it was G1 class. Its final furlong of 11.1s and final 2F of 22.6s are the fastest ever for a Chukyo 1600m debut.

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It also performed exceptionally in the Daily Hai. While it benefited from a perfect ride in the Asahi Hai, it also handled a wet track that didn't suit its pedigree. Returning to a fast mile track is ideal. However, its 13th place in the Satsuki Sho was very poor despite a good position. Most bettors will ignore that loss because of the return to a mile, which reduces its betting value. I'm keeping it as a secondary pick.

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I will reveal my actual betting tickets

at 14:30 on race day.

Please follow and wait.

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● NHK Mile Cup Final Conclusion

◎ ⑩ Ecolo Alba

○ ⑫ Anduril

▲ ⑪ Admire Quads

☆ ④ Cavallerizzo

△ ⑨⑦⑭⑰

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