NHK Mile Cup: Final Verdict

⠀

⠀

⠀

⠀⠀

◎6. Gine King

In the last race, which was its first at 1600m, it positioned itself in the front-middle of the pack and navigated the inside to finish 3rd, just 0.3 seconds behind the winner. The winner and runner-up were tracking the leaders, and the race itself favored those who ran near the front without losing ground. In that context, it was a significant achievement for Gine King to produce a result by holding back and saving energy instead of leading.

It is a major takeaway that a horse that previously relied on leading or pressing the pace could still perform well at the mile distance while being held back. In this upcoming Tokyo 1600m race, there is no need to force the lead. If it can take a position behind the front-runners and save energy on the inside, it should show the same persistent closing speed as the last race.

Two starts ago at Nakayama 1800m, it ran near the front, but Crepuscular made a sudden move from the backstretch, causing the second half of the race to stay consistently in the 11-second range.

That was a very tough flow for the horses in front; this horse was forced to use its legs early and simply couldn't hold on in the homestretch. Three starts ago at 2000m, it led and finished 0.6 seconds behind, which isn't a huge loss, but it faded at the end, making it clear the distance was too long.

Therefore, there is no need to downgrade the horse based solely on poor results at 1800m and 2000m where the aptitude was different. If it is overlooked and unpopular because of those stats, I see it as a great value and make it my top pick.

〇7. Diamond Knot

With a 2nd in the Asahi Hai and a 1st in the Falcon S, its consistency is high. While it leans toward being a 1400m horse, it showed it can handle the mile in the Asahi Hai. The presence of many similar running styles is a slight concern, but if it can settle in a good position without insisting on the lead, it is unlikely to crumble.

▲14. Barcesito

Finished 3rd in the Churchill C using its legs from the back, which is a commendable performance considering the positioning. It also finished 4th in the Shinzan Kinen by closing from the outside, showing it can compete in mile graded stakes. If the pace picks up, there is a high possibility it can close in.

△4. Cavallerizzo

Its victory in the Asahi Hai is the highest-rated performance among this field. If we view the previous Satsuki Sho as a mismatch in distance and conditions, returning to the mile is a clear improvement. As a type that can use its speed from a good position, it should easily display its ability at the Tokyo mile.

🔥Betting Picks🔥

① Win: 6

② Wide (2 points): 6-4, 7

③ Trifecta/Trio (21 points): 6-4, 7, 11 - 4, 5, 7, 10, 14, 16, 17, 18

【Full Field Diagnosis】

S Rating

Cavallerizzo (S Rating)

Its victory in the Asahi Hai is the highest-rated performance among this field. If we view the previous Satsuki Sho as a mismatch in distance and conditions, returning to the mile is a clear improvement. As a type that can use its speed from a good position, it should easily display its ability at the Tokyo mile.

Diamond Knot (S Rating)

With a 2nd in the Asahi Hai and a 1st in the Falcon S, its consistency is high. While it leans toward being a 1400m horse, it showed it can handle the mile in the Asahi Hai. The presence of many similar running styles is a slight concern, but if it can settle in a good position without insisting on the lead, it is unlikely to crumble.

A Rating

Admire Quads (A Rating)

The Satsuki Sho seemed to be a mismatch in distance and positioning; this horse can be re-evaluated returning to the mile. Based on its 3rd in the Asahi Hai and 1st in the Daily Hai Nisai S, its ability is top-tier. It also has a debut win at the Tokyo mile, so it's dangerous to downgrade it too much based on the last race alone.

Barcesito (A Rating)

Finished 3rd in the Churchill C using its legs from the back, which is a commendable performance considering the positioning. It also finished 4th in the Shinzan Kinen by closing from the outside, showing it can compete in mile graded stakes. If the pace picks up, there is a high possibility it can close in.

Gine King (A Rating)

Improved its performance at the mile by finishing 3rd from a good position in the last NZT. If we assume the Keisei Hai and Spring S were too long, this distance reduction is a plus. Conditions are aligned for it to run better than its odds suggest, so I'm raising it to an A rating as a sleeper pick.

Ask Ikigomi (A Rating)

Undefeated in two starts and hasn't shown its floor yet. In the last race, it won by pressing the pace, and it also has a debut win at the Tokyo mile. The competition is tougher now, but if it can navigate smoothly from a good position, it can break into the top spots.

B+ Rating

Ecolo Alba (B+ Rating)

Its track record is top-tier with a 4th in the Asahi Hai and 1st in the Saudi RC. It has aptitude for the Tokyo mile, and based on ability alone, it's close to an A rating. However, considering the risk of being positioned too far back after a layoff, I've given it a B+.

Fukuchan Sho (B+ Rating)

Finished 3rd in the race won by Diamond Knot, closing from the middle of the pack. The fact that it closed in while the runner-up held on at the front is highly rated. It has shown speed on left-handed 1400m tracks in its last three starts, suggesting high aptitude for the long Tokyo stretch. The mile extension is a challenge, but since it can stay patient and use its legs for a long time, it shouldn't be viewed as just a sprinter.

B Rating

Rodeo Drive (B Rating)

High mile aptitude shown by a 2nd in the NZT and a win in the 1-win class. A type that can use its legs for a long time from a good position; it could compete depending on the trip. However, the competition is significantly stronger this time, and there's no guarantee of a smooth race.

Anduril (B Rating)

The last Churchill C was underwhelming, but it has ability as shown by its Ivy S win and Hopeful S performance. The distance reduction isn't bad, and there's no need to completely write it off based on one race. However, it currently lacks enough factors to push it into the winning circle.

Ornero (B Rating)

The Crocus S win was at Tokyo 1400m, but its ability to run from a good position could be useful here. The mile extension is a challenge, but since it hasn't crumbled at 1800m, distance isn't a total concern. It will be tough to reach the top against this field, but it could stay in the mix as a backup.

Gillies Ball (B Rating)

Showed good closing speed from the outside to win the Fillies' Revue. The Fairy S had some disadvantages, so it shouldn't be written off for the mile. It's hard to buy confidently against colts, but it's a horse to pick up if the pace favors closers.

Thunderstruck (B Rating)

Has a win in the Shinzan Kinen, proving it can win a mile graded stake. The last Churchill C was unexpected, but if it performs to its potential, there is room to compete here. It lacks consistency, so it stays at a B rating.

Lorberkranz (B Rating)

The 2nd in the Mainichi Hai is highly rated, and its raw ability should be enough to compete here. However, it seems more comfortable around 1800m, and the drop to a mile might make the pace too busy. Not the best conditions, so B rating.

C Rating

Yu Pharaoh (C Rating)

Finished 2nd in the Churchill C by leading and holding on. However, there are many horses wanting to go forward this time, so it's unlikely to take the lead as easily. Highly dependent on the pace, so C rating.

Resort Island (C Rating)

Shows stable leading power at the Nakayama mile, but the long Tokyo stretch is a challenge. Couldn't find enough extra speed in the Churchill C and looks inferior in a finishing kick comparison. Given the field, it's a C rating.

Reservation (C Rating)

The NZT win is respectable, but it benefited from a favorable flow at the front. With many similar styles this time, it's doubtful it can run as easily. Despite being a graded stakes winner, the lack of reproducibility leads to a C rating.

Happy Angel (C Rating)

Has a 2nd in the Crocus S and 4th in the Artemis S, but has hit a wall in recent top-tier graded stakes. Looks inferior in both finishing kick and persistence against colts in a Mile G1. Highly dependent on the flow, so C rating.