**
Foreword
If we interpret the recent surge in BTC and crypto-related stocks as a simple oversold bounce or attribute it merely to "improving market sentiment," isn't that a bit too superficial?
On July 1, BTC hit a low near $57,800, then rebounded to $69,000, followed by nearly a month of boring consolidation. It wasn't until after August 17 that the market finally started making some "big moves."
Of course, what I really want to talk about today isn't just a few K-lines. Beyond price, there is a main theme we have been tracking since April: the United States is step-by-step integrating the crypto industry into the mainstream financial system.
This is the most important reason I am rewriting this article today.
On April 30, I wrote an article titled "Is Compliance the Main Theme of the Next Crypto Bull Market? New Bull Market Frontier: Crypto Concept Stocks."
On the surface, that article was researching several crypto-related tickers, but the question I really wanted to answer was bigger:
If the crypto industry truly completes its transition from a regulatory gray area to a compliant financial system over the next few years, who will be the real beneficiaries of this institutional change?
Four months later, we have more answers than we did then.
The federal regulatory framework for stablecoins has landed, with the GENIUS Act becoming law; the CLARITY Act is entering increasingly critical stages in the Senate; and the SEC's approach to crypto asset regulation has begun to shift from an enforcement-driven model to one that provides clearer rules and pathways. [1][2][3]
Meanwhile, the prices of crypto-related assets are also changing.
This week, BTC briefly approached $80,000, with a weekly gain of over 20%. In Google Trends' US real-time trends, "bitcoin price" search volume reached 100K+ in the past 48 hours, an increase of about 75%. On August 22, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also reached 71, re-entering the "Greed" zone. [4][5][6]
Sentiment can shift from cold to ecstatic with just a few green candles. Consequently, the most common questions I've seen lately have become highly consistent:
Is the bear market over?
What if I didn't buy enough before?
I completely missed this run; can I still get on board now?
I fully understand this emotion. Over the past eight years, I have also missed countless market moves. Because I've been caught in the rain, I'm writing this article today to hold an umbrella for those who are currently anxious.
When the market keeps falling, a person's greatest enemy is FUD—Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. But when it really starts rising, the greatest enemy becomes FOMO—the Fear Of Missing Out.
Especially when you open your trading software and see BTC, ETH, and a host of crypto stocks pulling up continuously while your position is light or you're even on the wrong side of the trade, that anxiety is easily magnified:
"If I don't buy now, will I really miss the chance?"
Today, I can tell you for certain:
Don't worry, there are still opportunities.
You might have missed this recent leg of the rally, but I don't believe you've missed the entire cycle.
A trending market won't give you only one chance to get on board. This can be seen from the market action since July 1: After the Gann time low appeared on July 1, the price rose to 66,900 and began a correction. August 17 was a Gann time low, but due to sideways movement, it couldn't be judged that day. Subsequently, BTC broke through the observation point of 65,400, confirming the end of the adjustment on the right side.
So, rather than rushing to chase a K-line that has already pulled up, it's better to think through a few more important questions:
Why did this rally happen?
Where are we now?
What has the policy theme actually changed?
And where might the next truly worthwhile entry point be?
If four months ago we were discussing where the wind was blowing;
Then today, what we really need to do is see how far this wind has blown and, before the September Gann high arrives, identify how large this tide really is.
I. Smelling the Wind in April: We are seeing more than just a rally; the industry's pricing logic is changing
In the April 30 article, I listed some crypto concept tickers I was watching. But looking back today, I believe the most valuable part of that article was identifying the future main theme of the industry, which is far more important than picking the right stocks.
Crypto assets are moving from a relatively wild development stage with blurred regulatory boundaries into the framework of the mainstream US financial system.
This sounds macro, but it is directly related to the price trends of Bitcoin and crypto stocks.
One of the biggest problems for the US crypto industry in the past was that many fundamental questions had no clear answers.
Does a token count as a security or a commodity?
Should trading platforms be regulated by the SEC or the CFTC?
What exactly is a stablecoin?
What kind of issuance constitutes a security offering?
How should customer assets be custodied and segregated?
Even for a company, there was often no clear answer as to which businesses could be conducted and to what extent without crossing regulatory red lines.
As a result, we saw a very absurd scenario: a company could be in operation for many years only to find out through a lawsuit whether its core business complied with securities law.
For individual investors, we might feel that regulatory uncertainty just means the stock price drops a bit more.
But for truly large institutions, this is far more than a matter of price volatility.
If a company drops 30%, you can build a model.
If volatility rises, you can reduce your position.
If earnings expectations fall, you can adjust the valuation.
These are all calculable risks.
But if a company cannot even determine if its core business will be legal three years from now, this risk is very difficult to price normally.
Therefore, an industry with long-term regulatory uncertainty naturally carries a layer of:
Regulatory Discount.
This is the key to understanding my April 30 article.
What crypto compliance truly changes isn't just the attitude of regulatory departments, but three more direct things.
First, it reduces the regulatory risk premium of the entire industry.
Second, it expands the capital pool of those truly capable of entering this industry.
Third, it provides the institutional foundation for business models that couldn't be carried out on a large scale in the past to operate long-term.
When these three things overlap, the impact of regulation on crypto won't just be a piece of good news causing BTC to rise; it expands into what price capital is willing to pay to revalue the entire industry's future.
I've always felt that GENIUS and CLARITY shouldn't be viewed as two separate news items. GENIUS addresses stablecoins. On July 18, 2025, the GENIUS Act officially became US law, establishing the first federal regulatory system for payment stablecoins, including reserve and disclosure requirements. [1][7]
The real significance behind it is that the US discussion on stablecoins has shifted from "Should this thing even exist?" to "Since it already exists and there is real market demand, what rules should it be regulated by?"
These two questions may only differ by a few words, but they are fundamentally different.
The former discusses life and death.
The latter discusses institutions.
And CLARITY aims to solve a bigger problem:
What rules should the entire digital asset market operate under?
Which assets fall into the securities regulatory framework, which belong to the commodity category, how the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC are divided, and what system trading platforms operate under—once these things are gradually clarified, the biggest institutional uncertainty in the entire industry may begin to decline. [8]
Add to this the SEC's latest Regulation Crypto Assets proposal, which includes ideas for exemptions and safe harbors for certain crypto asset issuances. When relevant conditions are met, certain crypto assets may even be considered not subject to investment contracts. [3]
Putting these things together, you will find that what really matters isn't a sudden "good news" item on a specific day. It's that the US regulatory approach is shifting from "drawing boundaries through enforcement after problems arise" to "writing rules and paths in advance to let the industry develop within a framework."
So on April 30, what we were really betting on, besides a few stocks, was a judgment on the industry trend:
Once the US begins to reduce the institutional uncertainty of the entire crypto industry, capital will eventually reprice this entire industry chain.
Four months later, this is being verified step-by-step.
II. Direction and Entry Points are Two Different Things: Why we saw it in April but waited until July
This brings up a question—since we already judged crypto compliance as the long-term main theme on April 30, why didn't we just go all-in then?
Because seeing the right direction doesn't mean every price is worth buying. This is something I believe is very easily confused in trading. Long-term logic answers: "Is this industry worth long-term attention?" Trading needs to solve: "When exactly do I strike?"
If these two questions are mixed together, it easily turns into the most typical binary trading:
Bullish long-term, so buy anytime;
Bearish long-term, so sell anytime.
The market is obviously not that simple.
Compressing my trading system into one sentence:
Policy and fundamentals are responsible for telling me where to look; Gann time is responsible for telling me when to increase attention; and price structure finally tells me if I can strike there.
These three things are all indispensable.
So April 30 only made me start noticing that the policy theme was becoming clearer, but my technical judgment was still that the adjustment would continue.
At that time, I proposed that a truly worthwhile entry opportunity would have to wait until the market entered the third quarter.
Around July 1, the time window we had been waiting for finally appeared.
BTC hit a low near 57,800.
But at that time, the market atmosphere was the exact opposite of today.
Now everyone is afraid of missing out;
Then everyone was afraid of buying too early.
Almost all technical analysts were discussing one thing:
"Will there be one final drop?"
I didn't really care about that question at the time.
Because "whether there will be a lower price later" and "whether buying at this position now can be profitable later" are two completely different things.
What I told everyone then was very simple:
It doesn't matter if the price we buy at now is the absolute bear market low. What matters is that we have entered the pre-observed low-point time, price has started to react, and the risk-reward ratio at this position is already worth taking some risk. Plus, we aren't going all-in; we are starting to build the first part of the position. So I felt there was nothing to fear.
I have always emphasized that the July decision wasn't "I am sure 57,800 is the bottom." No one can get a confirmation stamp from the market in advance when the absolute bottom appears.
What we truly had were a few pieces of information:
The long-term theme was very clear;
Time had entered an important window;
Price started to react;
The potential reward versus the risk we could take became worth participating in.
That was enough.
We didn't buy because we suddenly became optimistic in July.
We bought because the direction was determined in April, and by July, time and price finally entered our strike zone simultaneously.
The difference between these two is very important.
The former is following emotion.
The latter is waiting for opportunity.
III. A True Trend Won't Give Only One Chance: From July's Left Side to August's Right Side
If the story of July 1 ended there, this market move wouldn't be that worth writing about.
Because many people would say:
You just happened to buy a low point.
But I think what happened in August is actually more worth discussing.
It proves that our system does not rely on:
Having to guess the absolute bottom every time.
After July, BTC rose all the way from near 57,800 to the 69,000 area.
At that time, my judgment was:
Pressure is starting here, a callback is needed; but after this callback ends, the rise since 57,800 is not over.
An important Gann low-point time I gave for this adjustment was around August 17.
As it turned out, on August 17, the market didn't cooperatively give us a textbook V-shaped reversal.
BTC lingered and moved sideways at the lows.
If we interpret Gann time as:
"August 17 is here, so it must rise."
Then in this kind of market, we would have to buy blindly.
But that's not how I use time.
A time window is not the answer.
It just tells us that after reaching this area, we need to increase our attention to a market reversal; there must be a price reaction before deciding whether to strike.
On August 17, the market didn't give a direct answer, so we handed the confirmation right back to the chart. The right-side confirmation standard given at the time was breaking 65,400. Once BTC broke 65,400, we assumed the adjustment was completed on August 17. Subsequently, the market completed the breakout, and everyone saw what happened next.
This was a very standard right-side entry opportunity in this market move.
If around July 1 we were willing to take some uncertainty in exchange for better costs when "time was up and price reacted";
Then after August 17, we should have done the opposite—preferring to sacrifice some cost to wait for the market to prove itself first. Of course, I only pointed out this opportunity to everyone; I personally did not continue to add to my position on the right side because the position size established in July was sufficient for me.
Left-side and right-side entries are never "superior" to one another.
One has lower cost but higher uncertainty;
One has higher cost but higher confirmation.
What really matters is knowing which kind of trade you are making.
This is also why I keep telling friends who missed out not to worry, there are still opportunities.
Because the market has personally demonstrated it once:
Missing the buy in July doesn't mean the whole move has nothing to do with you.
Missing the first time window in August still left a second chance.
And even if you didn't participate in July or August, it doesn't mean you must lose your rhythm today due to FOMO after a continuous rise.
I still currently believe that this leg of the rise starting from 57,800 is unlikely to simply end near 79,500.
Of course, this doesn't mean any position is worth chasing with a heavy load now.
"The uptrend is not over and there is room above" and "whether the current risk-reward ratio is comfortable" are two different questions.
The closer we get to the upcoming September Gann time window, the higher the requirements for entry position, stop loss, and position control will be.
So if you don't have a position, it's not that you "absolutely cannot do it." It's that you have to accept a fact—doing it now is harder than in July, and harder than on August 17.
If there is a suitable small-level retracement structure recently, it can be studied. If there's an opportunity, I'll mention it in the group; it can be treated as a short-term trade.
But please, do not force yourself into a trade that doesn't fit your system just because you missed the first two buy points.
IV. Identifying the Tide in September: How strong this rise is will determine how low the November low will be
Next is what I consider the most important part of the entire article.
The question the market loves to discuss most now is:
"Is the bear market over?"
But frankly, I'm in no hurry to answer that.
Not because I'm bearish.
But because the answer itself isn't as important for our next trades as you might imagine.
Suppose I told you with absolute certainty today:
"The bear market is over."
And because of that, you jumped in with a heavy position at a local high, and then the market had a normal 20% correction.
Then being "correct in judgment" wouldn't help your account at all.
Compared to "bull or bear market," the question I care more about now is:
From the low point on July 1 to the September time window, what kind of height, strength, and structure will this round of rising eventually achieve?
This directly determines the nature and scale of the rise starting from 57,800, and also directly determines the trend of BTC for the next year or even three years.
According to the Gann time system I currently use, the times worth paying close attention to next are the week of September 6 and the week of September 10. There is a possibility of forming a local high here. It corresponds to the previous important low-point time, which was July 1.
When the market reaches this time window, what will this entire rise since July look like?
I will focus on three things—height, strength, and structure.
If BTC continues to break upward to 82,500 or even 86,000 by then, while ETH and the entire crypto concept sector continue to form a broad resonance, then the market since July will gradually move from "a strong rebound after a large-scale drop" toward "a new upward trend."
If this is the case, then after the September local high appears, what is more likely to happen in November is a large-scale correction within an upward trend. In other words, the future structure might become a low in July, a local high in September, and then a low higher than July in November.
If it turns out this way, the meaning of November is very clear. For those already on board, it might be a second chance to add to positions. And for friends who completely missed this round: this might actually be a much more comfortable entry opportunity than now—the trend is clearer, the risk position is more distinct, and the risk-reward ratio becomes reasonable again.
But we must also prepare for another scenario.
If the price continues to rise but BTC fails to break 82,500 or 86,000 by the Gann time window, then we must accept that this rise since July might still just be a very strong rebound within a bear market.
In this case, the nature of November is completely different; it might not be a higher correction low. It might even see a new low lower than July. This is why I won't suddenly announce that the bear market is completely over just because the market rose 20% this week.
But one thing to note is that regardless of which one November turns out to be, we actually have ways to handle it.
If a higher low forms: we trade it as a trend correction.
If a lower low forms: then we go back and check the long-term logic discussed in the first part.
If US crypto compliance is still progressing, the institutional direction hasn't made a 180-degree turn, and the long-term business logic of the industry hasn't been fundamentally destroyed, then what does a lower price mean?
The long-term logic hasn't significantly worsened, but the asset has become cheaper. From an investment perspective, this means the odds have improved again.
So I think this is what friends who missed this round should really focus on. It's not asking now: "Can I still chase at 77,000?" but rather thinking through: If September is strong enough, how do I plan to participate in the November correction? If September eventually proves to be just a strong rebound, how do I plan to deal with a deeper adjustment?
As long as these two answers are thought through in advance, there's no need to be so anxious now.
Similarly, for friends already on board, the focus must also change.
July was about having the courage to take a position.
Now we need to solve how to manage the profits already gained within the potential risk window of September.
If the market remains very strong, let the profits run. But if after entering the Gann time window, the height is sufficient, the strength begins to wane, and the structure gradually forms top characteristics, then partially realizing profits and reducing leverage will become a very natural choice.
This isn't being bearish; it's just that different stages require different strategies, that's all.
July was for offense; starting in September, learn to identify when to pull back your fist.
V. The Technical Window and Policy Window are Very Close: How will the market trade CLARITY?
Sometimes things are just so coincidental. The local high observation area currently given by our technical system is the week of September 6 to the week of September 10. And an important Senate procedural node that CLARITY has already entered on the agenda is September 15.
According to the currently announced Senate schedule, the motion to proceed cloture related to CLARITY will reach a procedural node at 2:15 PM (ET) on September 15. [2]
Note, September 15 is not the day CLARITY officially becomes law, let alone the day the President signs it.
What it truly represents is whether this bill can continue to cross an important procedural threshold in the Senate. [2]
So I define September 15 as a policy verification window.
With technical time and policy time so close, it is indeed worth increasing our attention.
Let me be clear here: I am not saying BTC will definitely top in September because of CLARITY on September 15. That logic is too simple. You can't force a causal link between Gann time and policy news just to tell a story.
What is truly worth our consideration is that the market will trade expectations in advance. There is still some time before September 15. Suppose in the coming weeks, the market continues to trade on the improvement of US crypto policy, the advancement of CLARITY, the SEC further clarifying rules for the industry, and the decline of regulatory risk as institutional capital flows back in. Then the closer we get to the actual policy node, the more we need to focus on how much of these CLARITY-related benefits have not yet been priced in?
From this perspective, two completely different but observable phenomena might appear in September.
The first one:
Policy continues to exceed expectations, and price also remains strong.
If by mid-September, CLARITY continues to advance smoothly and BTC still breaks through pressure without obvious structural exhaustion, it means the market has not yet fully traded all future optimistic expectations.
In this case, even if we enter the Gann time window, I won't mechanically exit just because "the date has arrived."
Price always has the final say.
The second situation is actually more worth being wary of:
The news gets better and better, but the price starts to stall.
If the market has already completed a very violent rise due to regulatory expectations, and after the actual policy node appears, it is suddenly discovered that:
Big good news comes out, but the price doesn't react;
Or it even opens high and closes low;
Then I will be highly alert:
Expectations may have been mostly traded already.
This is the familiar:
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Conversely, the same applies.
If CLARITY's progress in the Senate on September 15 falls short of market expectations and short-term sentiment is hit, but BTC and the entire sector clearly refuse to fall, then this is also a signal worth noting.
Because it means:
The market may already possess an internal structure stronger than the news itself.
So in September, I will put Gann time, price structure, upward strength, and sector resonance together, and most importantly, what reaction the price gives when facing policy changes, to consider them comprehensively.
Furthermore, even if CLARITY encounters short-term hurdles in the Senate, I won't immediately overturn that long-term main theme from April 30 just because of one procedural setback. Today, US crypto compliance is no longer a gamble solely on CLARITY. GENIUS has become law, the stablecoin regulatory framework has landed, and the SEC has already proactively proposed new crypto asset regulatory rules and safe harbor ideas. [1][3]
If CLARITY encounters short-term resistance, it just means the legislative progress is slower, not that the US has suddenly decided to abandon the institutionalization of the crypto industry. These two things must be strictly distinguished.
Of course, if the entire policy direction truly undergoes a fundamental reversal in the future, then our long-term judgment must naturally change accordingly; no view is worth holding onto forever. What should be held onto is the willingness to re-evaluate when information changes.
Final Words: Smelling the Wind in April, Identifying the Tide in September
By now, what this article really wants to express is quite clear. On April 30, we were researching where the wind was blowing. What truly attracted me then wasn't how much a specific crypto concept stock could rise, but that the institutional environment of the US crypto industry was beginning to change.
Compliance means regulatory risk may decline, meaning more traditional capital can enter, and meaning some business models that couldn't operate stably in the past are beginning to gain a long-term institutional foundation. This determined why I am willing to follow this industry long-term.
Correct direction does not mean immediate purchase. So we continued to wait. On July 1, the time arrived, and the price also reacted. We took the first part of the position. In August, BTC entered a correction near 69,000. We judged that the rise was not over. The August 17 time window arrived, but the market didn't give a direct answer, so we didn't guess. We waited for the 65,400 breakout for right-side confirmation.
What does this show? It shows that a truly valuable system should never be built on "I must guess the absolute bottom." If the market gives a left-side opportunity, take it. If it doesn't, wait for the right side. And today, we have moved to another stage. From now until September, what I care about most is how strong this rise is, because it will likely decide whether November is a normal correction in a trend or another low in a large-scale decline.
For friends who completely missed this round, the same words apply. Don't worry. Not buying at 57,800 doesn't mean the market is forever irrelevant to you. Not catching the right-side confirmation at 65,400 doesn't mean you must rush in today. A true trend won't give only one chance. Investing is never about missing one bus and never having another stop.
In April, we smelled the wind.
In July, we started to board the ship.
In August, the market confirmed the wind was still there.
And in September, what we really need to do is stand at the crest of the wave and identify how far this wind can push this sea.
As for the next truly worthwhile entry point, the tide will tell us the answer.
References and Data Sources
[1] The White House / [Congress.gov](https://congress.gov/) — GENIUS Act
On July 18, 2025, the US President signed S.1582, the GENIUS Act, into Public Law 119-27. The White House called it the first federal regulatory system for stablecoins in the US; the bill involves requirements for payment stablecoin regulation, reserves, etc.
[2] U.S. Senate Democratic Caucus — September 2026 Senate Agenda
The agenda released by the Senate shows that the motion to proceed cloture related to H.R.3633 "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" will reach a procedural node at 2:15 PM (ET) on September 15, 2026. This node is not the final passage of the bill or the presidential signature.
[3] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — Regulation Crypto Assets
The SEC proposed the "Regulation Crypto Assets" regulatory scheme in August 2026, which includes exemptions for some crypto asset issuances and safe harbor mechanisms; when relevant conditions are met, crypto assets may be considered not subject to investment contracts.
[4] The Wall Street Journal / Reuters — BTC Market in the Third Week of August 2026
On August 21, 2026, BTC briefly approached $80,000 intraday; the weekly gain was about 20%—22%, one of the strongest single-week performances in over two years.
[5] Google Trends — Trending Now, United States
Google Trends US real-time trend data shows that around August 21—22, 2026, "bitcoin price" once reached 100K+ searches, with a trend increase of about 75%. This data is dynamic real-time data, and subsequent page display values may change over time.
[6] Crypto Fear & Greed Index — August 22, 2026
On August 22, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded approximately 71, corresponding to the "Greed" zone, showing that market sentiment has significantly warmed up compared to before.
[7] The White House — GENIUS Act Fact Sheet
The White House explanation of the GENIUS Act shows that the law requires stablecoins to be backed by full reserves of highly liquid assets and requires issuers to conduct regular public reserve disclosures.
[8] [Congress.gov](https://congress.gov/) — H.R.3633 Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025
The CLARITY Act aims to establish a system for the issuance, trading, and regulation of digital commodities, and involves the regulatory framework and division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC for the digital asset market.
**Supplementary Material:*\ On August 19, 2026, Trump once again urged Congress to advance a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act during a White House event; Reuters also pointed out that one of the core significances of the bill is to provide clearer security/commodity classification and regulatory boundaries for digital assets.*
**Note:*\ The BTC prices, Google Trends search trends, and market sentiment indices involved in this article are all dynamic data, current as of around August 22, 2026; price and time judgments such as Gann time, 57,800, 65,400, 82,500, 86,000, etc., are technical analyses and scenario deductions under the author's personal trading system, not conclusions from the aforementioned external materials.*
Previous Articles:
1. "Asset Drama Under Geopolitical Games: Where are Crude Oil, Gold, US Stocks, and Bitcoin Heading?" https://x.com/BTCTW0/status/2047494328428478760?s=20
2. "Is Compliance the Main Theme of the Next Crypto Bull Market? New Bull Market Frontier: Crypto Concept Stocks" https://x.com/BTCTW0/status/2049869637538705502?s=20
3. "The First Act of the AI Era was NVIDIA, the Second Act has Just Begun" https://x.com/BTCTW0/status/2054121077862019412?s=20
4. "Crypto Continues to Languish, is the Crypto World Finished?" https://x.com/BTCTW0/status/2054580849677639711?s=20
