🔥 Main picks have performed well in graded stakes for 3 consecutive weeks 🔥
Epsom C
🥉 ◎ Regalo del Cielo (30.1x)
Niigata Daishoten
🥈 ◎ Ballet Master (49.7x)
Heian S
🥉 ◎ Tight Knit (11.3x)
◎ 11. Ametista
In the previous Flower Cup, she took a good position from an outside draw and moved early while watching the winner. She used her legs well in the home straight, and considering she suffered the disadvantage of being bumped at the fourth corner, finishing 4th is actually a commendable performance. The fact that she didn't crumble while chasing the lead on Nakayama's tight track is also a plus. In the Nanohana Sho two starts back, she proved she isn't just a middle-distance specialist by winning from a good position even with a drop in distance to a mile. She can handle a slow pace and finish strongly, showing high maneuverability. Her maiden win at Fukushima three starts back was over 2000m, a race that produced multiple subsequent winners and many horses that finished in the top three. Considering the competition, it wasn't just a favorite winning as expected, but a high-level maiden race where she broke away from a good position. Furthermore, she finished 2nd in her debut over 2000m. That field also produced many winners and podium finishers, showing her aptitude for middle distance and ability to run according to the competition from the start.
While the distance increases significantly for the Oaks, she is a horse that has been able to settle well in good positions so far, so there's no need to worry too much about the extension. Her strength isn't just sharp acceleration, but the ability to ride the flow near the front and use her legs for a long time.
She might be at a disadvantage in a pure speed contest from the back at Tokyo 2400m, but if she can stay in the middle or forward without dropping back too far, she can be more stubborn than her odds suggest. Given the field composition, the development is likely to suit her, making her a worthy main pick for an upset.
〇 18. Laughter Lines
She closed strongly from the middle of the pack in the Flora Stakes, and her success at Tokyo 2000m is highly rated. She also proved herself against males with a 3rd place in the Kisaragi Sho, so there's little concern about the step up in competition. As a type that can use her legs for a long time at Tokyo, the outside draw is welcome, and she is highly likely to handle the extension to 2400m.
▲ 13. Enne
She finished 2nd in the Flora Stakes despite being forced wide, a performance that suggests she was stronger than the result. Her maiden win was impressive, and the distance extension shouldn't be an issue. With only two career starts, there's still room for improvement.
△ 3. Alancar
She finished 5th in the Oka Sho coming from the back on the outside, a result better than the placing suggests. She also showed a good late kick in the Tulip Sho, and her late-race stability is top-tier in this field. Since a mile seems a bit busy for her, the extension to Tokyo 2400m is likely to be a plus.
🔥 Betting Strategy 🔥
① Win: 11
② Trio (24 points)
11 - 12, 13, 18 - 2, 3, 5, 9, 10, 12, 13, 16, 17
③ Quinella (2 points)
11 - 5, 18
Full Field Analysis
Ametista: S Rating
Finished 4th in the Flower Cup, only 0.1 seconds behind the winner Smart Priere, despite being bumped. Has a solid foundation for distance with a 2000m maiden win and a 2nd place in her debut. Her versatility to run near the front makes her a threat to stick around at Tokyo 2400m if it doesn't turn into an extreme sprint.
Laughter Lines: S Rating
Highly rated for winning the Flora Stakes from the middle of the pack at Tokyo 2000m. Proven against males in the Kisaragi Sho. Likely to handle the 2400m extension and benefits from the wide draw at Tokyo.
Alancar: A Rating
Commendable 5th in the Oka Sho from a wide rear position. Consistent late speed. The jump to 2400m should be a positive as the mile seemed a bit fast for her.
Trinity: A Rating
Won her last race at 2200m by leading all the way, so there's little concern about the distance. Consistent performance when running near the front. If she can lead easily, she has a chance to hang on at Tokyo 2400m. A strong longshot pick.
Star Anise: A Rating
Undoubtedly top-tier ability with consecutive wins in the Oka Sho and Hanshin JF. High level of completion. However, having focused on 1200m to 1600m so far, the jump to 2400m is a major concern.
Dream Core: A Rating
Finished 0.8 seconds back in the Oka Sho despite interference; hasn't shown her full potential yet. Won the Queen Cup at Tokyo Mile from a good position. The wide course suits her stride, but concerns remain regarding settling and stamina.
Enne: A Rating
Strong 2nd in the Flora Stakes despite a wide trip. Maiden win was good and distance shouldn't be a problem. Rated A only because of the sharp rise in competition for a G1 in just her third start.
Realize Luminous: B+ Rating
Solid 3rd in the Flora Stakes; doesn't seem far behind the top two. Good tactical ability shown in her maiden win. Could be more interesting than her odds suggest.
Juryoku Pierrot: B+ Rating
Won the Wasurenagusa Sho from the back; successful at 2000m. Stable at middle distances, but it's unknown if she can produce the same kick at Tokyo 2400m if the race flow is different.
Lei Classic: B Rating
Fits the distance criteria with a 2nd in the Yaguruma Sho and a 2000m maiden win. However, currently only performing at the 1-win class level, which might not be enough for a G1.
Long Tall Sally: B Rating
Won a 2000m maiden by leading. Could handle the distance if she gets to the front, but her 7th in the Yaguruma Sho suggests a gap between her and the top contenders.
Smart Priere: B Rating
Won the Flower Cup from the middle of the pack. Reliable runner but doesn't give the impression she will improve further with the jump to 2400m. Lacks the finishing blow to win here.
Ange de Joie: B Rating
Undefeated in two starts (Newcomer, Kunshiran Sho). Has won at 2000m, but comparing her ability to a G1 field at Tokyo 2400m after only small-field 1-win class races is difficult.
Sweet Happiness: B Rating
High ability at a mile (4th in Hanshin JF, 1st in Elfin S). Couldn't close in the Oka Sho after being forced wide. No experience beyond 1600m, making it hard to rate her higher for 2400m.
Longing Celine: C Rating
Stuck it out for 2nd in the Flower Cup by leading. Her Oka Sho failure can be ignored due to the pace, but with many front-runners here, her dependency on race development is high.
Mitsukane Venera: C Rating
2nd in the Artemis Stakes was good, but subsequent performances have been lackluster. Failed to hang on even at Tokyo 1800m in the Sweetpea Stakes. Distance concerns outweigh potential.
Stunning Lady: C Rating
Has a 3rd in the Daikanzakura Sho but was 9th in the Flora Stakes after leading. Hasn't shown the persistence needed to win at Tokyo 2400m against this field.
Sol Passare: C Rating
Won the Kawazu-zakura Sho well, but has lost significantly in recent graded and listed races. Faded in the Wasurenagusa Sho despite 2000m experience. Few reasons to expect a turnaround.
